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HarChris, what would you suggest Shield Therapeutics is worth to AZN or similar if put up for sale ?
I’d like to see what happens
I can't say 100% that Shield will fail to reach a cash flow positive position without additional resources but Greg has far from explained how that can be achieved. For it to happen they need to be on a completely different trajectory and so it can only happen if he has an ace up his sleeve which he hasn't yet shared with the market (what's the logic to that?') or fortunes change dramatically for some other reason.
Again, technically possibly but highly, highly unlikely.
So should I be selling up ?
You're using IMC so go to the interims presentation from less than seven months ago...
Look at slide 18, estimated annual prescriptions for 2024 - 'greater than 350,000'. Now apparently that was only a broker target and not their own and they've disassociated themselves from it but it was in their own slides not long ago!!
Page 22, 'achieve cash flow positive by YE 2024, revenues expected to exceed $120m by 2025' - that $120m requires around 500,000 prescriptions at ~$220 net Rx + milestone payments/royalties. In other words by next Q1 they'd need prescriptions to rise from 28000 to over 100,000 and still growing QoQ!
You can believe their word all you like but the last target for reaching cash flow positive was pushed back months after it was made - is it that likely to suddenly be achieved now when the numbers are so, so far off what they were estimating not long ago?
As for confirming they don't need an equity raise how about the presentation in April 2023 where in one slide it clearly states 'Fully funded to support operations through to cash flow break-even by YE 2024' as well as well as the same answer in response to the question in the Q&A of 'is the cash sufficient to get us to cash flow break even?' ... five months later an equity raise.
I am not missing the point- trying to understand what they meant by revised covenant and also confirmed they don’t need to do an equity raise .
And don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying a placing is coming next week, it isn’t. I strongly believe plan A is continue as if things are much better than they actually are, keep pushing for improvement in prescriptions written and net selling price and if all comes good great, if not leverage the expectation by placing alongside the next quarterly results at, ideally, 2p for £15m worth. Heavy dilution but one more chance at the last chance saloon.
But if they are honest about the likely scenario to play out that 2p/£15m is impossible and off the table and there won’t be another chance - see the incentive for them to deploy deception ?
You’re missing the point either intentionally or unintentionally.
When Greg says they ‘can’ reach cash flow positive with the resources they have he is technically correct, it is possible, as are most things in life. Is it realistic though? The answer to that is without doubt no as is well explained by a few other posters.
They are way, way off the targets set by the brokers which lays out the path to profitability. Previously when on track Greg and the management pointed us to the broker notes time and time again yet now they have totally come off that path he can’t speak for the broker targets? Isn’t that inconsistent?
The focus on Texas was evidently an attempt to mask the real situation but it’s been debunked by a poster on here. Yes Texas lost them some scripts but it explains only a fraction of the missed (broker) targets, it doesn’t fill the gap that is needed in any way whatsoever.
So yes they ‘can’ reach cash flow positive by h2 2025 with the resources they have but this sales team that’s been fully trained and at max capacity for the past six months need to suddenly start seeing ~30% increases quarter on quarter all the way to mid 2025. Come on, do you really believe that is going to happen or is it more likely Greg is hoping to raise off the back of this language?
I was just listening to the presentation again , from 12 min onwards - they talk about revenue covenant has been revised with KWS (slide 14) . And they can meet financial obligation until they go cash flow positive (also confirms year end audit is almost complete and figures will remain unchanged). And then again on slide 21 (28mins )
46 mins in - they confirm cash flow positive without raising any capital.
Still would be good to get e-mail explanation from management.
I think a number of people will be interested in hearing the response they give you. If/when they come back to you.
Got to be so much more careful in writing than in spoken form.
Anyway, for you uber bulls, it looks like today was a good opportunity for you to buy more!
All those stolen shares by the nasty, manipulating MM's, eh? Lol.
Looks like someone building a position lots of 250k buys.
Still waiting on response from management to reply to my e-mail.
I agree Shandy about Gregs "coyness" regarding buying shares - despite his substantial package.
He talks a great story but he would be infinitely more credible if he bought a substantial number of shares-which clearly provide much confidence in our ability to reach targets set & survival.The only reason for him not buying ( or Santosh) is that what they say is not necessarily what they expect the outcomes to be.STX is clearly in the "not for widows & orphans" camp but their lack of buying means it is further down the line than that .
I think you'll find the audited annual report is delayed to next week - yes that will be a bit more illuminating.
Um, maybe cause the audited financials confirm it ? Lol. No one is going to sell here. Just manipulating going on here to steal peoples shares.
But every prediction and promise Greg has made has been broken. Why is it true this time?
Learned to be invested in Shield on the hard way
I sold all my 1650000 shares for 1,25 on 30/3/24 with a big substiancial loss.
But now I´ve at least a perspective to reduce my losses.
I say goodbye to all long term investors, good luck !
For me Greg was the final straw with the Texas report. Unbelieveable!
Greg probably thinks Europeans are brain amputees that he can sell nonsense to anyone.
Nobody can suspend 3 months of prior authorizations for sometimes vital medications because a position is not occupied.
Here are information about Medicaid in Texas from the PBM, there are phone numbers on the last pages, feel free to ask about delays of Medicaid PA´s in Texas.
https://oig.hhs.texas.gov/sites/default/files/documents/reports/pbm-informational-report-final-9-30-2019.pdf
It was the first and last time I bought an AIM share.
Now I hope for better times with Nasdaq TGTX. The top product started one year later as Accrufer in the US but prescription growing, reaching the profit zone is total different to pound grave Shield.
Nice weekend to all but not for the BoD of Shield
Frank
Thanks.
I think the key point they need to answer is are they in breach of the minimum revenue covenants for the trailing 4 quarters to Q1'24 (which, based on the numbers they have provided, I believe they are), if so by how much and will they be raising 2x that amount as is stipulated in their agreement with SWK when a breach occurs - if not why not.
Will be interesting to hear what they say
Hi JAllis,
Yes I have found the information and read it. So I have fired an e-mail to the company to clarify their position as they repeatedly confirmed that they do not need to raise.
Riz - did you have a read of what I posted in response to your request for the source of min rev covenants? what are your thoughts on that?
Riz - did you have a read of what I posted in response to your request for the source of min rev covenants? what are your thoughts on that?
LMAO. It’s not working, bud.
The Texas issue was classic smokes and mirrors by Greg. To use it as the reason for poor Q1 2024 sales is deluded. I went back and looked at their slide (yes their own slide) and Greg's words didn't seem to fit with the data they showed. So a person left in Texas that impacted Medicaid sales. In Q4 2023 total Texas sales were 9,400 and in Q1 2024 they dropped to 6,700, a total drop of roughly 2,700 or 28%.
This drop incidentally was not just due to Medicaid, the graph shows the non-Medicaid sales also dropped, although Greg ignored this.
So if Texas didn't have an issue sales would have been say 3k higher and total sales in period would have increased from 28,800 to 31,800. So the increase percentage quart to quarter would have increased from the actual 1% to c 11%.
As we were expecting c50% increases they are still well off.
The breakeven in Q2 2025 are just words. As has previously been mentioned if the CEO had any confidence in his own words he'll be buying shares at these silly prices - he earns well over £500k a year.
Many want cheaper shares. Can’t blame them. They will be the biggest cheerleaders soon after they rob others of their shares
Did you just ignore the whole cash flow positive next year part?
@smythsmoneybox
The reason to disappear from this chat room is having to deal with people like you . Constant negativity . Makes one wonder why you are here in first place if you feel so strongly about how bad this company is . LSE chat rooms are just too toxic