Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
No question I´m with you when it comes to the credibility and quality of the STX management.
On the other hand STX updated the significant shareholder today. No one reduced or quit totally but all except AOP, Nestle and Milton added If I´m right.
Why do half of the large investors accumulate?
Sinificant shareholders > 3%, updated on 8/4/24
AOP Health 311,597,265 39.84
Hargreaves Lansdown, stockbrokers (EO) 60,742,305 7.77
Nestle, SA 56,008,541 7.16
Interactive Investor (EO) 42,682,231 5.46
AJ Bell, stockbrokers (EO) 30,778,385 3.94
Premier Miton Investors 29,113,136 3.72
Sinificant shareholders > 3%, updated on 11/3/24
AOP Health 311,597,265 39.84%
Hargreaves Lansdown, stockbrokers (EO) 60,148,898 7.69%
Nestle, SA 56,008,541 7.16%
Interactive Investor (EO) 39,074,656 5.00%
Premier Miton Investors 29,113,136 3.72%
AJ Bell, stockbrokers (EO) 28,085,831 3.59%
Significant shareholders with > 3% before the rx number fiasco
AOP Health 311,597,265 39.84%
Nestle S.A. 56,008,541 7.16%
Hargreaves Lansdown, stockbrokers (EO) 55,066,651 7.04%
Interactive Investor (EO) 35,527,919 4.54%
Jupiter Asset Management 30,477,697 3.90%
Premier Miton Investor 29,113,136 3.72%
AJ Bell, stockbrokers (EO 26,411,783 3.38%
Emcure is definitely not a small or zombie company.
A global company with more than 10.000 employees
https://www.emcure.com/about-us-overview/
Anyone who is familiar with he world wide rights of Ferric Maltol?
I found a new registration of a Ferric Maltol trial at the Indian FDA (CDSCO) by a company called Emcure Pharma.
CDSCO grant a bioequivalence study.
But there were no information no hint about STX or AOP.
India is a not unimportant market.
https://medicaldialogues.in/news/industry/pharma/conduct-bioequivalence-study-cdsco-panel-tells-emcure-pharmaceutical-on-ferric-maltol-capsules-126248
lwhl
i can understand why you're ****ed off, i feel the same way. i have nothing but contempt for management
i said in the post below : nothin has changed fundamentally for the chairman, not for us.
iat least i am convinced that shield has known about the prescription chaos for a long time, not just before the release on february 21st. but that makes it even worse in terms of trust.
ferric maltol is definitely worth more than the current value of the company
only one info from a patient and i have seen more
"yea the previous ones i took made me feel like that, but this brand my dr has me on doesn’t offer the generic version and i’ve seen a huge increase in my energy. ask your dr about accrufer, or what they think of it."
Thank you Jimie,
I can't say anything about the prescription chaos and the provider who allegedly reported the numbers incorrectly. Of course I'm totally disappointed and frustrated.
In my opinion, the CCO and/or CFO is responsible. Ultimately, the CEO and the BOD are responsible for
What I would like to add is that I found out that definitely 8 reps left in September/October 2023, including 2 employees who had already worked for Shield in 2021/22.
That's quite a cut. Let's say there were 10 and I didn't discover 2.
These 10 must be replaced, which has already been done promptly, and incorporated. In Q4, the new ones will not have contributed anything to the 28,600 prescriptions.
This will probably change in Q1/24.
Knowing this, we are not talking about an increase rate of 22% in Q4 but 36%.
Assuming that each of the 100 reps received the same number of prescriptions, we are talking about 2330 fewer as a basis from Q3 to Q4, because 10 reps are no longer there. That would be it
23300 – 2330 = 20970
And the increase from 20970 to 28600 is not 22% but 36%.
I hope and assume that we will achieve at least 40% in Q1/24.
Nevertheless, the existing capital is practically used up in April 24 and an offering is not possible at the share price.
You can find a new partner in Japan, sell the rights for a whole territory e.g. China or sell the entire company. That's what remains.
Our luck is that the drug is really good and the patent protection in the important countries lasts until 2035.
The market value of the company bears no relation to the value of the drug.
I definitely won't sell now. A sale of the company will definitely deliver a higher share price than 2.3p per share.
Maybe Shield will also go via Japan or China (or another area, Europe is also a joke thanks to Norgine).
A sale or partial sale would definitely explain why no insider purchases were made.
The Chairman bought for 120K at 6p. It would now be available to buy for 2.3p.. Fundamentally nothing has changed since he bought it, internally the Chairman (and BOD) already knew about the numbers before Christmas.
We will see..
Jimie
only for your information via paste and copy from an Viatris rep account
Successful result with 25 rx writers consistent in Q3 and Q4.
(My take : It could be much more as 25 rx. One rx writer could fill more as one prescription. )
-------------
Professional Sales Representative
Viatris
Launch and Promote Accrufer, the only FDA approved iron for all adults
regardless of underlying condition
• Q2 - 116% goal attainment and finished 12th in the nation
• Q3 - 90% goal attainment
• Q3 – Grew Memphis S. territory at 196% growth total prescriptions
• Q4 – 88% goal attainment as of 12/22/2023
• Consistent successful results with 25 new writers in Q2 and Q3
MVP Accrufer Detail Award Winner for Wave 3 Training
Yes, you are right. Thx for the feedback
Ok, when I read this excerpt (see below) or overview of the market research on IDA, I simply cannot believe that Shield is languishing at 2.5, 6 or even 10 cents and that the company has no money left.
I know, of course, that management has made catastrophic mistakes, particularly Sterritt and Watts.
The research particularly examines the large, important markets that are lucrative for pharmaceutical companies. There are USA, Europe (UK, Italy, Germany, Spain and France). Yes and there is also JAPAN. Why the hell doesn't Shield have a partner in Japan?
Even if you find a partner right now (which can't actually be that difficult) and negotiate the contract with low royalties and a high number of milestones, especially at conclusion, we are free of all worries and can look positively into the future.
I also googled the Shield and Viatris teams in Linkedin and other programs. This is all fine now and some have even won prizes for boosting prescriptions in a big way.
There were a few departures from Shield in September/October 23, including 2 very experienced reps who were at Shield before 2023 and were part of the 22 team.
However, these positions were all filled again promptly.
Here is the link to the reading sample
https://www.delveinsight.com/report-store/iron-deficiency-anemia-market
And that's what they write about our medication
Feraccru/Accrufer (Ferric Maltol/ ST10): Shield Therapeutics
Feraccru/Accrufer is a novel oral product that addresses the needs of patients who cannot tolerate existing oral iron products and offers a clear alternative to IV iron therapy. The drug is formulated as a capsule of ferric maltol containing 30mg iron, Ferric maltol is a tightly bound iron complex which does not dissociate so it is well tolerated and delivers the iron to the duodenum where the body absorbs iron naturally. Unabsorbed ferric maltol passes harmlessly through the digestive system as an unaltered complex and is excreted. Therefore, the drug offers a convenient, well tolerated and efficacious oral treatment alternative to IV iron therapy, without the need for hospital-based administration. The company’s lead product, Feraccru/Accrufer, has been approved for use in the US, European Union, UK and Switzerland and has exclusive IP rights until the mid-2030s. In the European market the drug is marketed by the name of Feraccru.
Should actually sell like hot cakes...
The silence is definitely strange.
No change for shareholders with more than 3% shareholding, neither sale nor acquisition. No new shareholders with more than 3% either, even though 163 million shares changed hands on the first day of the crash.
No insider purchases.
I'm not very familiar with AIM's regulations, but on this point it shouldn't be any different from other markets.
When a holding is sold, insiders are not allowed to buy.
Of course it's speculation. For me everything points to a sale.
There can be no new public offering with this share price. According to my information, Shield needs a little over $16 million to break even with a continued Rx increase rate of 22%/quarter and a retail price of $150/package.
A new loan is also not very likely, as Shield is missing the covenants for the SWK loan.
So all that remains is a sale. The question is at what price.
Shandypants, in my opinion, the milestone payment from Viatris is not the initial payment upon conclusion of the contract between STX and VTRS. That was 5 million. The 4.4 million appeared for the first time in the preliminary balance sheet from February 21st. Surprising to me.
Based on the information STX shared when the contract was signed, I know that up to 30 million in milestone payments could flow from Viatris. I don't know the exact conditions.
I suspect that the 4.4 million did not flow straight into Q1/23. More likely in Q3/23, as STX had the highest rate of increase. It was 58% even with the real rate of increase. Maybe the money flowed because an increase of over 50% was achieved. But it's all speculation. STX does not provide any details to its shareholders.
I believe and hope that the 4.4 million did not flow into Q1 but Q3, otherwise they will definitely violate both contract conditions for Q1/24 and Q2/24 with SWK.
Q1/24 with the 4.4 million is sporty but feasible. In my opinion, Q2/24 is not feasible even with 4.4 million given today's information. 80,000 Rx have to be achieved, i.e. 12 million with a package price of $150.
The milestone payment can also be a hope for Q1/24, Q2/24 and other quarters. Perhaps the STX VTRS contract is defined in such a way that further milestone payments will flow in 2024.
In addition, there are also cash on hand conditions in the SWK contract. This is by far the bigger problem for me, because according to my information, STX will run out of money in April/May.
A dilution due to an offering is not possible at this share price. The company needs at least 16 additional million to break even.
It's even written in the SWK contract. Shield spends around $50 million a year without offsetting revenues and milestone payments. So more than 4 million per month. Even if I deduct the payments of the 45% revenue to Viatris and the manufacturing and transport costs for the drug, that is far too much for me
Shield's communication to its shareholders is disastrous.
I also suspect and hope to buy Viatris STX. They took the bait, otherwise they wouldn't have signed the contract - and Viatris definitely has its foot in the door. Sometime in 2034 or 35, Ferric maltol will become generic and Viatris will be a company that primarily sells generics. Now that's a bargain for them. If the selling price is at least 10p (my hope) I can at least mitigate my losses and get away with a black eye
It is of course diffcult to realise but from my understanding not so difficult as you reported.
I understand the following if i read it correct
Q1/23 until Q4/23 rev must be 14,5 $m (Realised 17,5)
Q2/23 until Q1/24 rev must be 22,5 $m (17,5 minus Q1/23 + Q1/24) Q1/23 estimate 1,25 m$ US rev +0,25 mS EU rev --> 16+Q1/24 = 22,5 means 43500 rx at 150 $
Q3/23 until Q2/24 rev must be 31,5 $m
Q4/23 until Q3/24 rev must be 38,9 $m
22% per quarter not per month
Q1/24 35 T Rx
Q2/24 42 T Rx (means 77 T Rx for H1/24 or 11,6 $m)
Q3/24 52 T Rx
Q4/24 63 T Rx (means 192 T Rx for 2024) and 115 T Rx for H2/24 or 17,3 $m)
Q1/25 77 T Rx
Q2/25 94 T Rx (means 171 T Rx for H1/25) with 25,7 $m
For Q 2/25
you had 25,7 net sales rev for Accrufer
for the equation 25,7 H2/25- 7,8 H2/23 = 17,9 over 6 month means 2,98 $m per month as H2/23
3,35 $m-2,98 $m = 0,37 $m lost per month in H2/25
In Q3/25 STX is cash positive but til then you need 16,1 $m additional money and it can´t come from an offering with a share price lower 5 or 6 p/share
Sorry I have not written it but took it in account. I have NOT taken the 4,4 $m miles from Viatris into account.
3,35 million dollar per month with 7,8 million (3,5 Q3 and 4,3Q4) net sales for Accrufer.
If you presisely count every month with a 22% increase of Rx/ 150 (not 145) per pack you will see that you need 16,1 $m to Q3/25 . For instance H1/24 11,6 million net sales with 35T and 42/3 T Rx (77T Rx) means you have 0,6 %m more money in every month (3,35 - 0,6 = 2,75)
They have 13,9 m at 31.12.23 and 6 month 2,75 means ....
I am deeply under water. I am totally angry and totally disappointed with management. Now it's time to think rationally and make the best of it.
Yes STX needed 3,35 $m/month (13,6 $m (30.6.23 cash) -20 m$ (loan SWK) -6,1 m$ (offering) +0,3 $m( 13,9 $m cash at 31.12.23)
Money runs out in April 2024
with a monthly increase of 22% in rx they will be cash positive in Q3/24
UNTIL THEN THEY NEED 16,1 $m CASH
A PUBLIC OFFERINGS IS IMPOSSIBLE BECAUS THE COMPANY IS WORTH JUST A TOUCH MORE.
Only options
to sell whole China asset
or more probably A FIRE SELL OF THE WHOLE COMPANY
If that is in the making
No insider trading
No change in significant shareholder so far
is reasonable
I hope it is at least significant more as 2 to 3p per share
Regards
Frank
For the sake of completeness 2 new additional UHC PDL community plans.
So at least 10 UHC PDL community plans offer Accrufer with a very low copay.
Means in the meantime every 5 US state have Accrufer on UHC community plans with Tier 2
Pennsylvania
https://www.uhc.com/communityplan/assets/plandocuments/findadrug/PA-PDL/PA-Community-Plan-for-Kids-CHIP-PDL.pdf
Nebraska
https://www.uhc.com/communityplan/assets/plandocuments/findadrug/NE-PDL/NE-PDL.pdf
And of course a Happy New Year ;-)
Some additional NEW UHC PDL community plans where Accufer is listed as TIER 2.
UHC is the biggest provider in the US. At least Accrufer is now on 8 preferred UHC community plans. Great progress if you ask me.
Colorado
https://www.uhcprovider.com/content/dam/provider/docs/public/commplan/co/pharmacy/CO-RMHP-PDL.pdf
Maryland
https://www.uhc.com/communityplan/assets/plandocuments/findadrug/MD-PDL/MD-PDL.pdf
Virginia
https://www.uhcprovider.com/content/dam/provider/docs/public/commplan/va/pharmacy/VA-Cardinal-Care-Preferred-Drug-List.pdf
New York
https://www.uhc.com/communityplan/assets/plandocuments/findadrug/NY-PDL/NY_Essential_Plan_EPP_PDL.pdf
New Jersey
https://www.uhc.com/communityplan/assets/plandocuments/findadrug/NJ-PDL/NJ-Preferred-Drug-List.pdf
Already known
Rhode Island
https://www.uhc.com/communityplan/assets/plandocuments/findadrug/RI-PDL/RI-Children-SHCN-RIteCare-RhodyHealth-PDL.pdf
Texas
https://www.uhc.com/communityplan/assets/plandocuments/2024/formulary/es/2024-TX-Formulary-H7833-001-000-ES.pdf?tfn=1-877-780-7862
Ohio
https://www.uhc.com/communityplan/assets/plandocuments/2023/formulary/es/2023-OH-Formulary-H2531-001-000-ES.pdf?gclid=d877e3ce7b081a44757687042bf5aefa&WT.mc_id=8030191&cid=ps%3Adsnp-bng-uhc-bp-community-plan-pm-8030191%3Ab0ca3df9
This will be a block buster. It is only a question of time
An excerpt from the linked article
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10002863/
6. Conclusions
Despite the many difficulties and controversies, L1 and the maltol–iron complex are prime examples of academic drug discovery and orphan drug development medicinal products. In particular, L1 has helped in the treatment and survival of hundreds of thousands of iron-loaded and other patients worldwide in the past 30 years. Similar results are expected from the use of the recently approved maltol–iron complex for the treatment of IDA, which affects 1 in 3 or 4 individuals worldwide.
Yes, this could be the reason
There is a RNS from July 24th that Jupiter reduced from 6,7% to 4,78%. jupiter holding is 34 m shares according to the RNS.
I´m not familiar with AIM holding reports but Jupiter is under 5% with this RNS. If they have now 3,9% the holding must be clearly under 32 m if they held 34 m with 4,78%
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/STX/holdings-in-company-zdkg5f1y7m8rg8r.html
Ferric Maltol is also a theme at community-based politics in England. In the north of Greater London
At leat there is a vital interest to increase the Accrufer availability.
https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2023-11-07/104