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But every prediction and promise Greg has made has been broken. Why is it true this time?
It was tipped in the Times in Nov. Results look good. Lots of pipeline to look at one. It only takes one of two of these to work. If Tau is the one then for me that is massive.
Why would AZ buy a diagnostic company. It divested Zeneca diagnostics years ago.
Appreciate the points made but the point I am making is that the comments are all about things that might happen. China, Canada, NZ (population same as greater Manchester!) Norgine getting better etc etc are all well and good. They MIGHT happen. You can't bank any of it.
IF we fail to get the rights sales in USA then you think somehow they compensate? I can absolutely tell you that if USA is not nailed to the door these other factors only make the difference between needing more money and POSSIBLy breaking even if they all happen in time.
If you look at IMS numbers on injectable iron >60% of the global VALUE is solely in the USA. I agree at the this SP 11p it is cheap. I liked it even more at 6p and topped up.
So I re-iterate. All eyes on USA. No USA acceleration to 50% CAGR month on month then we miss 2023 numbers. That is what my sheet tells me and that is the target Shield set for USA in 2023. If we miss then all eyes on how much and what is the % growth rate for 2024 and how will the mange cash to avoid a raise or debt.
They say they are cash flow +ve end of 2024. They have enough money to end of 2024. Therefore, they run our in 2024.
AU - approved and not launched. I just checked Norgine applied for a renewal fee exemption due to zero sales.
The scrip numbers are all set out in the big raise they made and HAVE to be met.
And FYI I am absolutely balls deep in here but most of you, not all, don't seem to put in any proper research and occasionally a small amount of cold water is needed because you egg people on. They then put all their money in these get rich shares and lose it all. I have seen it so many times.
STX say the cash runs out in 2024 if they don't reach their target of 2023 - 145k scrips and 2024 is 395k scrips. There words not mine. Cash flow +ve in 2024. I;m sure they factored in everything that they could. Norgine have consistently under delivered and we know it is a low 2 digit royalty. So no not expecting much. Despite approval in AU they have still not launched.
I track it on an excel sheet and they need well above 100% Q to Q to reach target of 145k scrips in 2023!!!! They need 53 CAGR monthly to reach their stated target of 144k scrips in 2023. There is possibly going to be the chance of a hiccup along the way. This growth rate is important as cash runs out in 2024 and they have to do it or do a raise or borrow.
The Q2 was issued 20 days after close of Q2 - so 20th Sep is a date to keep in your diary. 8th seems ambitious as they'd want to think carefully about how they play it. Anything stepping into Oct I might read as "not as good news as hoped"
BXP is part of a larger group. It's based in Bangladesh - I don't even think the majority of shares are avilable and it's been around since the 1960s. The shares on AIM are ADRS. PE buy out - get a big grip. It's never going to be a PE buy out . In fact there will never be a take over. This is a divi share.
WIthout seeing what you are seeing isn't the discount rate not associated with probability but is the lost value vs borrowing i.e. it's a comparison vs the value that you think you can get elsewhere. You set the rate at whatever you think you can get and if it's +ve then you are beating that rate. As it compounds over time then NPV is hard to beat on long term especially in R&D but if it does beat NPV then it's growth is stellar.
I think its also harder as which doctor recalls a patient that never comes back! They are so busy. It will take a while to relaise that there patients are happy - assuming that they are happy!
No interest was due in 2023 on these loans. So it helps overall but cash flow wise not a great deal. It makes bank borrowing easier I guess
Like the comments. Excellent break down. Clearly a target of 120k scrips in 2023 and only doing 10k in the first Q means a LOT has to be done. 2Q feels tricky as still in transition. It's got to get to at least 25k otherwise its not credible that they will catch up.
Couple of comments 1. the teams are pushing but eventually doctors will prescribe without any pushing (pull). 2. the improvement in net profits per scrip as they get covered. So at some point there is an inflection - hoepfully
It's an easy calc based upon end of year guidance they need CQGR (quarterly) of around 30% to reach 500,000 annual scrip by end of 2025. If they wish to reach the 2024 target then it needs to be closer to 40% for 2023/24. You can calculate the CQGR for 2022 - I estimate it to be Q1 to Q2 was 85% and 2022 Q2 to Q3 was 38% and Q3 to Q4 was 35%. But starting from such low numbers means small differences in numbers change %. So all eyes are on 2023 numbers 1H - if they maintain 30%+ happy days - on track
Is there enough cash to 2024 when revenues start or they need more? I think the market is saying "more"
It was a non cash loss
The operating loss of £0.2m was impacted by non-cash items, including:
£7.2m amortisation of intangible assets arising from acquisitions undertaken during prior years;
£0.7m non-cash depreciation; and
£0.1m share-based payments.
Amati fund say they have exited Renalytix - admit they should have top sliced at the peak but now 100% out.
Technically it is a recommendation. The Approval is granted later by the EU Commission it is a few days/weeks later. I think that will count for the CVR