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That was me. I was invested in SHG and SRB,as both were significantly undervalued with much upside. I sold SHG as I thought the derisory offer would put a cap on the s.p. I suggested SRB was the best place for an investment. I can see 150p this year,and much more next year....
That's meant to say SHG to SRB
What beautiful soul suggested SRB on the day when those sheisters at SHANTA announced their takeover bid?
Mate! I am up about 100% thanks to you.
As per yesterday MM's have no stock so you can't buy in size or at all. All their stock was gone after just a few minutes this morning and no sellers.
I don't know where they can get stock as it's a tight market compounded by gold going $2200.
gold going ape**** in hk morning trade. new aths.
It will be interesting to see what the market makers decide to do on results day. Send it up 20% or send it down 20%...
Either way it ends up at £1+ before the end of the year I believe
Plenty of demand for Serabi at these levels. There are few sellers as virtually all buys in the past 2 years are in profit now. MM's keep running out of stock and placing limits on quantity that can be bought.
Why?
Tamesis has a target price of 75p based on POG at $1950 for 2024 and $1950 for 2025. But if we see $2150 for 2024/2025 that increases EBITDA from $25.5m to ~ $32.5m and for 2025 from $34.4m to ~$45m, against today's mcap of $57m.
AND then it's 2026 when an even sharper increase in production is expected as seen here:
https://twitter.com/Serabi_Gold/status/1767542059995394089
It's worth noting that other brokers for other goldies have started forecasting much higher gold prices for 2024 and beyond.
In the background here by the looks of things.
According to SRB web site, they reckon on doubling production by end of 2025.
Next resistance looks like 77 pence, then on to 90 pence for another 50% rise. Well done to all that bought at 20p ish for for a double bagger.
Up 160% over 6 months.
Always said it was going over 60p.
It's down to bitcoin fever. To be fair gold miners have been a lousy investment for a long time. Bitcoin on the other hand has been stellar. For anyone choosing between the two is going bitcoin.
When it turns out China secretly controls bitcoin, people will be much keener on gold (and gold miners) again. Or maybe China turns it off as ransom when they invade Taiwan...
Obviously I'm joking, but gold miners will pick up. Just maybe not yet in the US. To be fair they are not doing badly
Wouldn't disagree with that, and are invested on that basis. I still expect a violent rerate at some point.
The whole logic to investing in relatively high risk miners (vs gold) and in particular the higher end of the risk spectrum (small caps) is to receive outsized gains if it all comes together in your favour. Right now that's exactly what's happening here, operations are improving, the regulatory framework in which Serabi operates is improving and the gold price is highly supportive... and yet those outsized gains are yet to materialise.
Still think we could have a blink and you miss it move soon though.
I'm convinced that the share price weakness is to do with Shanta. Investors piling in there and selling Serabi in short term. Once, the shenanigans at SHG have finished, then SRB will re-rate.
It's an odd situation, putting it middy.
The commodity that Gold miners sell is rocketing, but the SP is not, okay SRB doing okay based on recent history, but the lack of interest in miners os a touch bizarre.
Is it perhaps a deeper shift that investors would now prefer to own the physical metal over the miners that mine it? Or just a matter of waiting until the great rotation and these stocks come back into favour?
SRBs five year high of 119p came in late 2020 so worth looking at AISC margin for 2020 and 2021.
2020 - $353 , 31200 ounces production
2021 - $347, 33850 ounces production
Now assuming $2100 ave gold price for this year and $1475 AISC we get:
2024 - $625, 39000 ounces
That's a huge step up from the figures posted in 2020/2021 when SRB share price was at its highs and would generate more than double the EBITDA.
And fast forward eighteen months and the target it more than 60000 ounces at sub $1400 aisc, possibly a doubling again in ebitda - the undervaluation is stark.
Not quite accurate. So we have this from the full year results last June:
'On 14 February 2023, the Group entered into hedging contracts with an international bank whereby it acquired sell options over monthly quantities of gold over the period March 2023 to February 2024 totalling 10,215 ounces of gold at a price of US$1,800.'
There's been no update on this so either a new hedging contract is being put in place now (at $2050 ish, perhaps?) or management are happy enough with the balance sheet and outlook to not reintroduce this.
Glad that Serabi doesn’t hedge their gold price like some other miners….hence will be able to take full advantage of the ongoing rising price.
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/are-we-at-the-beginning-of-a-new-historic-supercycle-for-gold-1415097
Gold hits an all time high and we hit an all time high of disappointment for me!
Still at half the price of 3 years ago with a much higher goldprice and prospects of much more production and much bigger profits....Catching up slowly but long...long way up to fair value in my opinion. 150p is my target for this year....with further big gains the year after....
Traders may think they can sell here and get back in cheaper. But they might lose their position as gold is still going up and might continue going up for weeks as it has been suppressed for so long. Gold $2165 has broken out and is at an ATH with $2500 not so far away.
Interesting at 50 seconds into the video Mike says 50,000 and quickly corrects to 40,000 ounces (RNS stated guidance for 2024).
What if that 50,000 was more than just a slip of the tongue and they are actually looking to beat guidance by 10,000 ounces 🤔
As Michael Caine famously said “you were only meant to blow the bloody doors off”