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There's the green light to buy - rns out CEO and CFO buying shares
yup crazy price.... it was valued around 7x EBITDA in the full year results drop to around £2, dropping from around 9-10x EBITDA,
Looks like this years will come in at the 20-25m mark worst case accounting for the revenue drop, and perhaps 15-20m next year if things don't improve.
But market share is still increasing and markets will flip for the better at some point..., so even at a silly 5x EBITDA basis it should be closer to £1 and possibly £1.40 on a 7x, it has already done a remarkable fall from the £3s to £1.10 which should have priced in most of it....
Directors bought in the mid £2s for a reason just a few months ago and NAV at interims were well over £1 a share
Anyway... it's clear there's a large II seller(s) around here, expecting a TR at some point and some directors buys
Silly silly price here
All IMO
Looking at the drop here over the last few days and having undertaken background research, I regard this price action as absolutely bonkers.
Looking at the last set of financial data issued from the company in Dec 21, they had nearly £30m cash in hand and total assets including inventories and receivables of £131m against debt of £15.7m and total current liabilities of £83m.
The last 4 years of financial data has shown strong growth and clear investment in both scope and reach of their product service which has significantly exceeded increases in debt which in my opinion makes it clear that this company has grown organically and not off borrowed cash or placings etc.
The BOD have invested heavily and recently at a significant premium and in my opinion have provided good financial governance over the years since listing. The Chairman and FD are both paid a very fair (and not by any way inflated) salary and could take a lot more based on the historical MCAP.
I see this drop being organised to facilitate the exit of one or more IIs probably due to the investment no longer meeting investment criteria or due to a more general cash raising sell off policy due to macro events.
Valuing the company at less than one financial quarters revenue is just nuts. Unless they have raided the piggy bank, maxed out the credit card and flogged all the inventory etc, the MCAP is probably at or close to the current assets alone.
I've similar concerns as Andreas.
This share has similar experiences to VCP in that business was booming, acquisitions made then a downturn in sales.
I believe this will bounce back but maybe less of a bounce and more of a climb.
Have we seen the bottom yet?
MickR, I'm well aware of the games that are played with advertised spread vs reality, the problem is that a lot of PI's see trades marked in red and assume they are sells. False spreads in quote driven shares are usually holding tactics, my guess is someone wants in at 50p and they don't want PI's getting their hands on too many shares or driving the price up. Agree that director buying is what we need and will be the catalyst for a swift move back up.
Seller out now?
28-Oct-22 11:36:35 49.00 235,084 Unknown* 48.00 50.00 115.19k O
28-Oct-22 11:36:09 49.00 500,000 Unknown* 48.00 50.00 245.00k
Shearclass,
Buys below the mid price will show as sells, it is easy to work out what is a buy and what is a sell if you are following the bid/ask all day.
Interesting thing is that directors were paying over 200p in the summer to buy shares. They may be loading up down here. Directors buying would bring massive confidence back here. I can see a run up to 60-70p once it gets going and we will know the seller is out even before a TR1.
DYOR
judging by the volume we must be there! will see swift move for sure
Getting a lot closer that's for sure... question is will the play the same trick as this morning by raising the bid/ask and then letting buys go through as sells to kill the momentum? It's being held around this level until the seller finishes, depending on which II it is, that could be today or next week, it's always a guessing game until you get a TR1 and a clear move in price!
don't know why the mm's keep showing buys as sells, smoke and mirrors as mentioned earlier indeed
Can sell at ask price now and NT to buy.
Looks like we could be in for a blue afternoon IMO.
Good luck
Been unable to buy for the last few minutes
looks like we could be done, judging by those large trades
I have bought 40,000 shares at an average of 50p. I think we are bottoming out or close to the bottom and a bounce could be on the cards if directors are buying.
DYOR
A little disappointed with this morning trading performance.
Maybe we soon can reverse engineers wo is selling off:
Total shares changes hands in last two days (above average) is approaching 10million
10 million shares = ~ 10% of market cap (at current values).
Blow is the ownership distribution. Its starting to look like Totterman, Abrdn or Cannacord are the only options. Unless its a multiple sell off.
SHAREHOLDER
ORDINARY SHARES (%)
Robin Totterman 18.3%
Canaccord Genuity Group Inc 15.6%
Abrdn Plc 7.6%
Amati Global Partners 5.6%
Tellworth Investments 4.9%
Liontrust Asset Management 4.3%
Blackrock International 4.1%
Janus Henderson Group Plc 3.9%
Invesco Asset Management Limited 3.7%
Royal London Asset Management GIS Ltd 3.7%
I also averaged down in couple of accounts yesterday.
I have been contacting IR for days (before yesterday's sharp decline) with suggestions that Inspecs communicate to the market and possibly use buybacks to support the share price. I got a response basically saying we will provide a Full Year trading update in January'. I have been concerned about some large owners taking big decisions without any significant information being released to the market (prior to yesterday).
If its Aberdeen selling , then that could be good news, as they need to release capital due to increasingly poor performance.
It will be interesting to see who sells and and on what basis sales are made. Any thoughts / info appreciated!
It would also be great to know what stopped investments production facilities costs and the impact.
It seems that the last years has been ambitious in acquiring a similar size company, integrating this, as well as building production facilities in Vietnam and other places. It would take quite a skilled entrepreneur to pull this off imo. Is he / she in the business?
Let's hope this isn't that start of a restructuring / bankruptcy phases. Fingers crossed!
51.6 to sell and 51.345 to buy at the moment.
Strange trading the last half hour, there are sellers but why hold a false spread so that all the buys at 53p show as sells? If you want to clear a seller surely you want to attract more buying, not put people off? Smoke and mirrors as always...
There are big buyers as well though, those delayed 53p trades are clearly buys
Agree shearclass, as it is clearly evident you can buy well below bid now
Or almost gone, should bounce from here once the buyers return. As I thought, 50p would be the pivot point IMO. Could turn sharply up to 60-70p if the buyers frenzy starts without the seller.
DYOR
The seller is clearly still there as you can buy at 53p bid but is slowly being cleared by 25k block buying. Volume is very good again though which is the most important thing, I suspect this will bounce well once the seller is cleared but it was certainly squeaky bum time at 4.15 yesterday when they dropped the spread to 43-44, got bought up in a flash but shows that you have to be careful with position sizing in this type of situation...
Compared to yesterday , moving up soon I’d say
94'5 open yesterday so dumping complete and a big bounce on the cards.