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I know, timing is tricky. It's ticking up nicely today, many buyers. Let's hope!
This share has traded at bankruptcy prices. Any positive in the next update could fuel a jump. Quite a few battered clothing retailers are reporting a slight improvement. Let's hope glasses follow suit.
The company is turning profitable from loss making, what's not to like? Also the company has probably sailed through the worst headwinds. Foxton's appears undervalued imo, with plenty of upside. I've added stock and will sit still in the boat.
I agree this is a tight float,its also possible that most sellers have made their sales by now given the high volumes the last 120 days. If so, we could see more buyers than sellers, which should drive prices upwards. Provided the business does ok. All in all, it looks like a good risk rewards scenario from here.
Hi Amers,
I sometimes use Short Tracker.co.uk for a quick scan of larger UK companies. I am not registered so I don't think I have access to all info there.
I can't say how up to date and accurate things are, as I don't fully know.
I think only positions above a certain threshold (perhaps 5%) are official flagged and presumably there is a delay on these coming in. But it can probably be a guide for larger companies and trends. For other markets there are weekly short lists being published that appears in finance various publications.
They generally provide
This could be the end of the short selling cycle, as I noted here a few days ago. Its correct that news are important to start a short selling cycle (e.g. a number of investors find a stock / asset overvalued and borrow the stock at an overvalued price to sell it, and buy it cheaper at a later stage to hand it back to the lender). Its important to note: that if short sellers are correct, they become buyers eager to close their positions at a later stage. When the full float of a small company has been consumed in a short period its likely that there is less appetite to borrow stocks (sell), and therefore the exit (buy) might approach. In theory and practice, supply and demand dictates the price of a stock, which in turn of course can be influenced on many factors like news, tactics, hysteria, sentiment, fundamentals, etc.
Its not easy to spot the end of a short selling cycle though, so I could be wrong (as so often). However, if I am correct, the stock can go up further util it finds its correct / fair equilibrium value. If we see positive news in the next report we might even see a short squeeze, when outstanding non-closed short positions rapidly have to be closed - this triggers a short squeeze (hysteria in the opposite direction).
I think DOCS is right in the midst a short cycle now, and I will be keeping an eye on this stock. Its a bit easier to value than INSPECS as there is better financial / fundamental data to follow
I kept an eye on this share for the last few months. Excuse my rough calcs here, please correct as you see fit.
It appears to me that trading in the last 90 days almost equals the full float of Inspecs 100m shares (e.g. 1m * 90).
If so, are there any shares left to short? I doubt double short is common, e.g. entry ---> exit ----entry > exi....etc.
Without short selling (institutional sell off) demand should exceed supply in the next, let's say, 6 months. Provided the results aren't catastrophic that is. Or the owners sell out , but that seems unlikely given recent purchases.
I figured out that my best option is to not follow this quote for 6-12 months, as I might set myself up for another lose-to-lose situation. Let me explain what I mean. Investing in a turnaround company is a mentally testing business, as it is difficult to time them bottom and as such one is likely to experience further losses in the short term. As prices fall further, its not uncommon to see a change of mind to 'save the stake'. This is particularly common when the investors stake is large or the investor in part (or full) makes a living of investing.
However, saving the stake at, let's say 20%, will rarely compensate for a successful turnaround which often can carry 5x-10x return. I can refer to my own mistakes here. For example, I invested in Indivior at rock bottom low only to change my mind and pull out. I have done this mistake a few times.
I will now let this bet run its course and see where we are in perhaps 6-12 months time. If I lose, I lose, that has to be a part of turnaround investing. What shouldn't be a part of my investing is a pull-out based on fear, or over exposure to daily quotes / declines.
On a different note, I wonder if this stock also is the target of short selling?
Good luck everyone!
Maybe we soon can reverse engineers wo is selling off:
Total shares changes hands in last two days (above average) is approaching 10million
10 million shares = ~ 10% of market cap (at current values).
Blow is the ownership distribution. Its starting to look like Totterman, Abrdn or Cannacord are the only options. Unless its a multiple sell off.
SHAREHOLDER
ORDINARY SHARES (%)
Robin Totterman 18.3%
Canaccord Genuity Group Inc 15.6%
Abrdn Plc 7.6%
Amati Global Partners 5.6%
Tellworth Investments 4.9%
Liontrust Asset Management 4.3%
Blackrock International 4.1%
Janus Henderson Group Plc 3.9%
Invesco Asset Management Limited 3.7%
Royal London Asset Management GIS Ltd 3.7%
I also averaged down in couple of accounts yesterday.
I have been contacting IR for days (before yesterday's sharp decline) with suggestions that Inspecs communicate to the market and possibly use buybacks to support the share price. I got a response basically saying we will provide a Full Year trading update in January'. I have been concerned about some large owners taking big decisions without any significant information being released to the market (prior to yesterday).
If its Aberdeen selling , then that could be good news, as they need to release capital due to increasingly poor performance.
It will be interesting to see who sells and and on what basis sales are made. Any thoughts / info appreciated!
It would also be great to know what stopped investments production facilities costs and the impact.
It seems that the last years has been ambitious in acquiring a similar size company, integrating this, as well as building production facilities in Vietnam and other places. It would take quite a skilled entrepreneur to pull this off imo. Is he / she in the business?
Let's hope this isn't that start of a restructuring / bankruptcy phases. Fingers crossed!
This share has been sold down for a while without any information. It feels like there is bad info ahead. I am still stubbornly considering to average down, probably the wrong play, but unless there is known negative information it should a have chance . I had a feeling something isn't right - I posted here yesterday about that. The stopping of factory investment seems bad, presumably money went into this investment already, and there might be commitment further liabilities. Will a rescue be needed and that's what we see being baked into the price already? Shares rarely fall +80% without that being the case.
Gosh, I got this so wrong :(. One of my worst investments over a 20 year active investment period. It reminds me about picking up Debenhams before bankruptcy, in hope of Mike turning it around (another one of my poor decisions). I need to analyse and figure out what I went wrong here, so hopefully it does't repeat itself!