The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Will be interesting to see how it plays out. I think China will look to double down on there manufacturing to counter Biden's Bill to bring production 'back home'. They will fight tooth and nail to retain their dominance and it will come down to an ideological level as much as an economic one.
Watch this space but I see this as a transient issue personally and have added significantly at this level.
GLA
This is in strong buy territory for me now. Dipped below both the envelope and the lower Bollinger band threshold over the last trading session and similar trends over the last 12-18 months have been short-term transient and corrected sharply.
Never can call the bottom but happy with the risk reward here now. Nickel futures will stabilise and overall demand is growing whilst transitioning to low carbon tech. Will be back in the 420 - 430 range before long no problem.
Evening All,
I can't really put this in any other way but this board and the vast majority of content on it is uterly pathetic.
My best friends mother died today after a long illness. He was at her bedside and had been for the last three days almost 24 hours a day supporting her and his father. I visited him this morning and his strength and energy blew me away. He has given everything emotionally and timewise in three straight days for others.
What have you lot done? Wasted the gift of time, of energy, of life on drivel. It is pathetic and shameful. All the good that could be done with that time and energy... lost for nothing but a few cheap shots. I am appalled.
I came on to discuss my research on this investment but to be honest I can't really be bothered with the lot of you.
Grow up and don't waste your life. It really will be over before you know it.
It seems extremely odd and unnaturally subjective, the lengths that some are going to on here to present the bleakest picture possible.
Trying a little bit too hard to be convincing really.
I am absolutely one for detailed and honest critical examination of financial, news etc but the repeated on liners of 'never dismiss this going to 20p' etc are just a little too basic.
Not even going to start on comments like 'bottom fishing is a sure way to loose your money'.
I have been investing for 12 years. I have made errors, I have had successes. Risk in investing is unavoidable. If you want certainty, put your money in a bond or savings account.
If you are here, investing in shares, then my definition you understand risk. It is up to individuals to manage that risk as part of their individual strategy. People who come on here with comments like that make me laugh.
Anything is possible and as such, for every doom scenario, there is an equally plausible opposite as there are many multiple variables at play. By all means present the downside but do it in a balanced way guys otherwise the only conclusion is that you lack objectivity and critical thinking.... or you have a preset agenda.....
I think the Shein bubble may well burst in an ultra fast manner as well. Tolerance for bad environmental practice is extremely low amongst the younger demographic and that tendency is increasing. Factor in China / West tensions on top of that environmental concern and I can see restrictions being placed on Shein as well as the name becoming a dirty word. Meanwhile Boo opening the US distribution and cutting lead in times and carbon footprint.
I tend to take a contrarian view on distressed shares such as this which are fundamentally sound but affected my macro pressures. This industry is incredibly sentiment based and cyclic.
I full know that Boo has come under scrutiny and criticism for working conditions and environmental footprint and personally I don't particularly like Kamanhi. However, the fact is that the Boo business model is tried and tested and works. The whole sector is depressed but I see management running a tight ship and that is clear from how Boo is weathering this period set along side the competition.
I see a strong base which is is improving diversity with the REVB arm which will be a hit with customers and them carefully controlling cash, debt, inventory and putting solid global distribution framework in place.
All this press about Boo sqeezing suppliers being a bad thing is total tosh. Boo are the marketing and distribution hub of the model. They are in business to make money efficiently and are not there as a charity case for the bleeding heart brigade. If they can squeeze suppliers costs then great. They are not going to erode the supply chain in doing so as there will always be other suppliers there with the business model and capacity to evolve and pick uk the slack. Survival of the fittest and Boo are fit under the hood.
They are well ahead of Shein and ASOS with their partnering on fair trade cotton supply and I think they will evolve their returns policy to close that loophole. If Ashley gets his mits on ASOS, that free returns loophole will be closed faster than a whippet and that will give Boo all the licence they need to do the same and keep pace.
I am long in this with £20k bought in in tranches over the last week. Be brave and when the mcap is less than the current assests with what we have in the pipeline, that's my signal to buy hard. It may not be the bottom bit it's low enough for me.
GLA
Agree with that. I see current headwinds everywhere but low debt and decent cash in hand. That is fundamentally down to good management.
Directors have bought consistently for the last 6 months and a sizable purchase earlier this week. Would be amazed if wee don't have another soon.
If they are increasing their holding then that's good enough for me. Medium term recovery play and an interim dividend coming in June to boot despite market pressures.
Easy and solid investment opportunity for a moderate but not excessive amount of patience 👌
Looking at the drop here over the last few days and having undertaken background research, I regard this price action as absolutely bonkers.
Looking at the last set of financial data issued from the company in Dec 21, they had nearly £30m cash in hand and total assets including inventories and receivables of £131m against debt of £15.7m and total current liabilities of £83m.
The last 4 years of financial data has shown strong growth and clear investment in both scope and reach of their product service which has significantly exceeded increases in debt which in my opinion makes it clear that this company has grown organically and not off borrowed cash or placings etc.
The BOD have invested heavily and recently at a significant premium and in my opinion have provided good financial governance over the years since listing. The Chairman and FD are both paid a very fair (and not by any way inflated) salary and could take a lot more based on the historical MCAP.
I see this drop being organised to facilitate the exit of one or more IIs probably due to the investment no longer meeting investment criteria or due to a more general cash raising sell off policy due to macro events.
Valuing the company at less than one financial quarters revenue is just nuts. Unless they have raided the piggy bank, maxed out the credit card and flogged all the inventory etc, the MCAP is probably at or close to the current assets alone.
Good to see the Gov't announce a £10bn public support package for energy bills this year starting with a £200 tax rebate for households in October, potentially doubling at year end. More financial security for households and slightly more disposable cash to spend on those holidays.
Hopefully we will see further institutional investors add here to capitalise on the recovery over summer.
Very encouraging to see JP Morgan increasing more than doubling their shareholding in TUI. Also, interesting to see they acquired their new shares on the 18th May last week, on the initial 10% from from the 240s when the company announced the rights issue.
JP Morgan are therefore likely to have paid around £2.14 for their increased shareholding. If they have conviction at that level, combined with the fully subscribed rights issue at £2.20, that bodes well.
The TUI share price is mirroring Easyjet almost exactly at the moment and consensus target there is for around 36% upside.
My thoughts exactly. The drop this afternoon as brutal to watch but looks orchestrated and overdone, likely to retest the March flash-crash sell off to 180p.
The whole sector is weak (Easyjet is down over 5% today as well). I don't think the market liked an additional 10% of share capital being raised and used to service state debt obligations rather than fund growth but TUI has been significantly paying back its debt of late and can't be subsidised by the German stare forever.
Bookings for 2022 are v.strong even with them raising prices by 18% and costs are being cut to strengthen the balance sheet. Short-term combined headwinds of inflation fears, recession fears, cost of living fears, WW3 and a Covid/Pox resurgence are all coming together to batter confidence.
I come back to the fact that institutional investors have just paid £2.20 per share for a premium discount to accumulate nearly half a billion quids worth of equity. The placing was fully / over-subscribed and since then the institutions are down 16%, within a week of their purchase.
I have £60k in this and am 11% down with an average of £2.07 and am aiming to get this to £2 if this drop continues.
A useful write up from an interview with the main man, which may be useful to some when looking ahead at forcast 2022 summer season performance.
https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/air/tui-chief-downplays-omicron-effect-in-upbeat-forecast-for-2022
Clearly, the article is dated December 2021 and reflects the macros-economic situation at that time but bookings already in place at that point for the 2022 summer season were very strong and already closer to 2019 pre-pandemic levels than 2020/2021. This was also against a backdrop of typical 18% price rises.
Some of that will of course be eaten into by inflation coming through now but the demand is strong and TUI are cutting costs where possible. The whole industry is under pressure and uncertainty persists with recession / war / Monkey Pox fears but this has fallen a long way even from the immediate post-pandemic pressure release rise of early 2022 and is overdone in my opinion.
If the institutions are happy to buy in here in solid amounts 12 to 13% above this level and are not shorting the pants off this, then its a strong buy for me.
Well times second hammer blow here over emerging Monkey Pox concerns. The market remembers the effect on international travel from Covid only too well.
Difference here is Monkey Pox is not nearly as contagious and vaccines are already available and thus it is containable.
Taking advantage of this secondary drop to accumulate and expecting an improvement over the summer.
As I understand it there is a minimum 90 day lock-in period this has been agreed with the institutions as part of the purchase.
In reality, what sort of institutional investor is going to part with tens of millions of pounds / euros worth of shares that they agreed to purchase for £2.20 at this level?...... None I would wager.
Also interesting to note that there are also no shorts on this stock above declaration level (0.5%). Clearly, in my mind at least, the institutions don't see significant downward potential on this from current levels.
Allguessing - I am interested in your last post. Can I ask why you think this recent move by TUI will require or lead to the company having to borrow more?
Many thanks
Morning all,
I completely agree with that Hexam. The drop here over the last 2 sessions is predominately sentiment led (at least below the £2.20 SP mark.
TUI has recovered cautiously well since the Covid slump of 2020-2021 and had settled into a stable mid-bound range of £2.10 to 2.40 and was trading towards the upper end of this at close of play on Tuesday. The share capital has been increased by around 10% but importantly for me, the new shares have been pre-sold to institutional investors at 2.62 euros each (or £2.20 GBP).
Those institutional investors would not have agreed to that negotiated book price if they did not see a healthy 20-30% minimum return. There is also a 3 month lock-in on these so we will not see any dumping until late summer at the earliest.
Currently we are trading around 8% below the institutional acquisition price for the new shares. This portion of the SP slump is entirely sentiment led and is, in my mind, being seized upon in conjunction with inflatory pressure worries to drive it down and let those in the shadows in at a premium discount.
TUI has made a positive bold move to stand on its own here and repay govt support debt, reducing interest payments in an inflatory environment and setting a confidence benchmark with a substantial institutional purchase.
@ MSG4GO
This is undoubtedly a hard, dry time in the retail sector and a lot of patience will be required. I have had my patience tested a lot over the years in other shares like UKOG and ANGS.
None of us have a crystal ball and you must try not to get annoyed or upset with yourself over the short-term ups and downs. I got myself locked in with £5k in EVRAZ about an hour before it was suspended last month! Hopefully that will come good but again, could be a year or so wait....
I originally started trading socks when I was at school in the 1990s and at that time, I got my stock prices in the newspaper! It took about 2-3 days to place a trade back then pre-internet and the whole approach to buying and selling stocks was so much more drawn out. I think the modern access to trading desks and the sheer volume of information we are pummelled with creates a mindset of needing to react and that, in my mind, creates anxiety and leads to a desire to perform knee-jerk reactions.
Slow it all down, take a deep breath, don't look at the 1-30 day google share price charts but concentrate on the 6-24 month charts and identify the trends. Breathe and focus on company fundamentals and the overall status of the wider economy and things become clearer.
You will do fine with your average of £1.72 in time but try to only look once or twice a week at the SP over the coming months. Average down if you can and wish to but treat it as a long term investment.
I too roll my eyes at the Kamanis wearing their lifestyle on their sleeve as that is not my way at all. Take heart in that fact that they are down massively as well as is the MD who has a serious performance related bonus which will go down the pan unless he delivers.
This is a cyclical dip due to perfect storm conditions. There is absolutely no way the Kamanis and the MD are going to forgo their serious gravy down the line. Underneath everything, I see them spending hard to make sure they squeeze 101% out of the business opportunity as the market reverses.
MSG4GO.....
I am happy to be completely honest about my holding. I have traded BOO and ASOS in the recent past as well as Next and Mks. Having not held BOO for a couple of months, I bought in yesterday with £30k of shares an average of 80p as a hedge in case the trading update was received more positively and held back the same again for today if it went the other way.... which it did.
I have bought in a couple of times today and most recently a £5k top up at just 65.9p.
My total holding is now 68,200 shares with an average currently of 76.5p. Total cost of holding currently £51,762 and down 10.77%. I am holding back a little more for sub 65p as I would like to get my average down below 75p.
Having researched quite thoroughly and taking into account today's update and the general state and outlook of the market, I decided to move my short-term trading funds over here. I know I am likely to be locked in here for a year or so but that suits the time restrictions I am under which stop me day-trading.
For me, the money either sits in the bank earning 0.25% for a year or I try to make it work harder here. I view this investment as akin to locking it away in a fixed 1 or 2 year bond.
Morning all,
Like some others here, I look in occasionally but very rarely post but I wanted to offer my take on events of late at Boo.
Historically I have varied by share holdings equally between a shortly term trading pot and a long term value investing pot. Over the last year, I have swung to long term value investing as I run my own small company and do not have the time required to trade effectively.
I currently hold 60,600 shares in Boo at an average price of £0.77 and am down around 8-9% so I have a fairly significant interest here.
Applying a critical eye, I consider that the company is transitioning to set up the conditions for growth in a challenging market environment over the next few years. The drop from 400p looks shocking but the covid 'growth' of 2020/2021 was not sustainable but rather a short term bubble that was always going to burst. The combined effects of supply chain costs post-brexit and inflation have timed together to create a perfect storm off the back of this drop off in unrealistic covid related performance.
Boo has been operating since 2006 and in my view has reached a point where in order to sustain further true growth, it had to address its global infrastructure which was quite immature and relied too heavily on 'just-in-time' transport. The company has dug deep into its cash reserves to fund this infrastructure growth which is always going to look like a financial hit. The company are managing this drop in cash reserves with an agreed new finance facility to provide working capital until the fruits of this investment come in.
There is stiff competition in their market place but Boo have maintained a profitability edge over the likes of ASOS. The business model requires fast, responsive and cost effective fulfilment and delivery of their product and the also need to address the returns issue. The investment in regional distribution infrastructure is fundamental to ensure that they can compete effectively going forwards and I am glad they have pushed ahead with this using their cash reserves.
Confidence and sentiment across the entire retail sector is extremely low at the moment but this is the perfect time to get their ducks in a row for the years ahead. If they do it right, I can see them coming out of the starting blocks very strongly was the retail sector reverts to positive. If they don't have the infrastructure and systems in place and ready, they will trip over their own feet and loose out to their rivals in the race.
I intend to add to my position gradually if this moves towards 65p and intend to hold for a minimum of 12 months.
As a society, we are too used to expect instant results. Investment takes time and this is something I have learned a lot from bringing up three kids. I invested most of the 30s to what was essentially tiring, dirty and frequently boring tasks but as they have grown over the years, the reward comes. My advice is lengthen your gaze on this one.
The only thing is BOO was walked down under sustained pressure from the c.90p to around 70p prior to their results a fortnight ago, then rallied up to the mid-90's again in the trading sessions following their results and has stablised in the 87p to 93p range since then.
I wonder whether this is following a similar 'fashion' (please don't excuse the pun...)
I see the algos taking this down steadily with repeated patterns over several consecutive days this week to retest the mid £15s following our dip there around 5 weeks ago along with BOO.
BOOs trading update was pretty decent in the prevailing conditions and online retail is weathering fairly well. The war, inflation and the upcoming energy caps in April are coming together to create perfect bear market conditions and I see the powers at be looking to capitalise on these uncertainties, together with the CEO question in the run up to results to create a market over the coming weeks.
I reckon its at least a 10%-15% pressure-release upswing here following the results on 12th April in true BOO style....
I think this may be a drop opportunity made more of by the Market Makers and possibly pro-shorter co-ordinated activity to create a market / acquire cheep shares before the move to the FTSE next week and with the continued backdrop of uncertainty in Europe.
Fundamentals are very good and those have not changed recently. Market data indicates stronger than predicted retail activity in the last reporting period. FTSE move expected by or around the 20th Feb (i.e. Monday next week) and Russia will be expected to visibly demob forces from the 20th Feb when scheduled war games are to wind down.
A confluence of forces and factors is driving this down at the moment but there is a very real possibility of a significant reversal in the situation from early next week.
Just my thoughts on a postcard. (Bought more this morning in anticipation and now holding 3000 shares and holding).