Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
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addicknt,
I thought the projected shares in issue were circa 2.8bln with CGP gaining 550m shares??
SOLG previous 'market' valuation was between 18p and 44p based on a 3 or 4 year trading basis. It was also based on 85% ENSA interest and excluded the 6.7% (approx) CGP SOLG holding.
The extra shares in issue for the merger and recent funding round should be close to neutral and have no effect if you assume that the 15% ENSA interest was approx what CGP were valued on in first place inc the 6.5%.
You can't just look at the shares in issue number and then ignore the minority ENSA acquisition and stock in treasury. Also, some would say that by holding 100% of ENSA it simplifies the selling and potential takeover process so an added premium compared to prior should also be included.
All in all, the market is not reflecting anything other than pure boredom at present. The market is a woeful valuation tool so do not rely on it. The market rated Noront at 23 cents. It sold for 110 cents. Markets are pretty poor at doing proper asset valuations. They are good at spread bets, shorting, CFD's, algo bots and all the other casino bookie type things.
Noront parallels...
August 2021:
"Wyloo Metals has engaged Maxit Capital LP to act as its financial advisor"
Submits its offer:
"Consideration of Cdn$0.70 in cash per share represents a 192% premium to Noront’s unaffected closing price on May 21, 2021 and a 27% premium to BHP’s Cdn$0.55 per share take-over bid price"
Luca Giocovazzi says:
"“Wyloo Metals didn’t make its cornerstone investment in Noront earlier this year to accept an offer that represents a fraction of the potential value of Noront’s Ring of Fire assets. We invested in Noront because it has the potential to be Canada’s next great mineral hub and produce the metals critical to decarbonizing our planet.”
"“In April this year, we were deeply concerned when the Noront Board proposed to farm out Noront’s exploration projects to BHP for only Cdn$25 million. Rather than consenting to such a transaction, we decided to make an offer to acquire the Company. Our fears were justified when the Noront Board completed a deeply discounted 5% placement to BHP, giving away a strategic toehold in the Company to an obvious suitor."
December 2021 Wyloo knockout bid...360% higher than Noront's SP in May 2021...
"Wyloo’s proposal at C$1.10 per share trumps BHP’s bid of C$0.75, which currently has the support of the Noront board. Earlier, BHP said it had been unable to win backing from Wyloo — already a major shareholder in the Canadian company — for its offer. Wyloo’s latest offer is nearly 60% above the C$0.70 per share proposal it made in August. "
The best example of how Bob Sangha brings home the bacon for shareholders...
$2 billion plus funding, including massive equity dilution, however its achieved, would severely depress the SP until first copper was mined...
Jjust look at the history of ATYM...
1981 - well said.
Thanks Red. We will see. Hoping it is done this tax year with the forthcoming changes to cgt you previously referred to.
Q “This is ludicrously low, as it increases substantially should we obtain funding and start production” …. Pretty sure Bob Sangha not on board to steer us to production. Anyway hopefully all the bickering will be done in a few months when Solgold is a thing of the past
Q, one other point: It's exactly how the market currently values the company.
Q, you misunderstood what I was trying to establish. I was simply looking at how the market currently regards the combined entity. And yes, it's hopelessly undervalued at the moment.
Wonder if REDKnight checked the volume of that single trade in Canada reported on Christmas day? As part of his ramping narrative he questioned whether the large percentage rise was a clue about good things to come... On a volume of 600 dollars! There is absolutely no way that a genuine former city finance specialist would not look at the volume too which leaves only one conclusion. That message and all others are a laughable effort to try and influence the share price from a crppy message board. Here's a little experiment everyone on here write in all caps that the company is going to go bust tomorrow and see how it influences the share price it doesn't at all. He is a total muppet and more stupid than he is annoying
Good morning all, hoping everyone had a good Christmas.
Addicknt that is not how you currently value Solgold today.
All you have done is take the market cap and divide by the number of shares.
Of course that will always come out at the share price.
We have the NPV which I believe is roughly 3.6 billion pounds.
We then multiply it by 30% to 40% to give us our range for PFS, which is where we are at .
Then divide by 3 billion.
So 30% of 3.6 billion is 1.08 billion divided by 3 billion is roughly 35 pence a share.
40% of 3.6 billion is 1.44 billion divided by 3 billion is roughly 47 pence a share.
So a rough current valuation is between 35 and 47pence a share for Cascabel alone, with no further money spent.
This is ludicrously low, as it increases substantially should we obtain funding and start production.
At a conservative estimate these figures double giving us between 70 to 94 pence a share, which increases as we proceed.
You're right addickt...wrong denominator...£1.35...
Sound comments as usual addickt..
Heres my take...
Jiangxi has been brought in as a stalking horse...when you consider Irwins comments, other players would be hellbent on preventing this tightening the Chinese armlock on copper markets that they already have...
Of course BHP are potential players and even if they dont succeed, they will make any successful bidder pay too dollar....and NCM want the maximum return on their 'Strategic Investment'...
It seems to me that they both voted against the resolutions because they can see the game being played here...to their disadvantage...
Of course Jiangxi are serious about their investment...$30m is peanuts for the Chinese Government, financially and for strategic reasons, including entrenching themselves further in Ecuador..
So I see every probability that a third possible bidder would be sought...when you see what happened with a two way tussle for Noront, a three way fight here could produce a highly satisfactory exit price for us all...
Of course the value a bidder places on a target is a key consideration.
BHP clearly had a limit for OzMinerals and look to have secured a reasonable deal...but this is different...
My judgement is that Wyloo ended up paying more than they intended fir Noront, but in my M&A experience, Boards often end up paying more than intended...its a bit like going to an auction with a maximum price in mind and walking out having paid more because you wouldn't let go...
So Jiangxi are key for me...they undoubtedly have their eyes on the prize and deep pockets, but when a third player enters, the sky is the limit...and Jiangxi would still walk away with a handsome profit...
RK, £2 would value the company at approx £6bn and as much as I'd love to see that it ain't gonna happen.
Mather has always focused on an Asset Value target, not Market Value...
Surely that gives you anything up to £2 ...?
Cheers NRL...I took it that Irwin meant 78p was much too low...
Hi all
After some lobbying, Ecuador is planning some changes including security for mining projects--
https://www.mining.com/ecuador-to-launch-security-program-for-mining-projects/?utm_source=Daily_Digest&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MNG-DIGESTS&utm_content=ecuador-to-launch-security-program-for-mining-projects
Apols if this has been posted already. This may help get majors to move on SOLG. The pic is of Cascabal btw.
(Long SOLG since 7/20)
To answer my own question:
Assuming it's an all share deal there will be just over 3bn shares in issue. The current combined market cap of both companies based upon todays price is £474m. In other words, it seems to me that my hypothesis is correct; the current price already reflects the post-merger company.
I'm pretty much stating the obvious, but I wanted to see if we are currently trading at a discount or premium to the post-deal structure. It seems we're pretty much spot on, so I guess we can conclude the market is neither positive nor negative about the deal.
anyone had a stab at working out how many shares will be in issue once the merger is completed? Obviously the possible cash element will have a bearing.
Our current share price seems to be reflecting the combined market cap on a fully diluted basis.
Btw, I noticed some comments about the issue price of the latest fund raise and how this may set a benchmark for any deal. Personally, I wouldn't get too hung-up about this - in a competitive situation it will become irrelevant, and naturally Citi and Maxit's task is to create some competitive tension.
Let’s move on :)
I think we must be. It was the comment about the number of shares being irrelevant which threw me.
Of course. I’m not sure then why you seem to be disagreeing with my earlier post . I was just pointing out to Orthern that any buyer will only be concerned with the price they are prepared to pay .....in which case the current sp or number of shares in issue become largely irrelevant . Maybe we’re at cross purposes...
BPHIL, I'm not sure I understand the point you're trying to make.
It goes without saying a buyer is only concerned about the value they attribute to the company and that value is divided by the fully diluted number of shares to achieve the price we receive. But this is pretty obvious stuff, isn't it?
It will dictate what WE receive, depending on how many shares we own . The buyer won’t care too much ...the bottom line is their concern , what price they are willing to go to should we get a bidding war
I hope your right BPHIL… but we have to consider jurisdictional issues and IRR value when considering what a mining company may be willing to pay
BHIL, sorry your observation isn't correct. The number of shares in issue will dictate what we receive, so it's highly relevant.