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Anybody had a tot up of the numbers >Fors = 30% (friendlies I can ascertain from the recently updated significant holders list)
Against = 32% (worst case of Norges / Blackrock go against)Typical turn out 70% (but we may get 80% as it’s important)
So of the 8% (remaining from the 62% I’ve totalled above) - if 25% (of the 8%) vote against and 75% vote
We get
36% for
34% against
If 33% of the 8% vote against and 67% vote for
We get 35.5% for
34.3 % against
But I think it’ll be more like 80% vote - 18% over the 62% we can have a good stab at
Let’s say 40% vote against and 60% for (I actually think we get a higher % voting for - but obviously that’s just a guess)
We’d be at 41% for
39.2% Against
Quite frankly if Norges/Blackrock go against us - it’ll be down to the unknowns and will most vote for the board
- I’d like to think yes - but welcome other opinions It’s gonna be tight indeed but think we will win it.
/>Please check my math as this is just back of a *** pack calcs
Also don’t know if any of the big holders have dark pools of holdings under different institute names they can call on for support
Lot of negativity here today but I’m staying positive - and even if we lose I’m not sure that Maxit and the team won’t have a plan B in place to move quickly on to counter any move the unfriendlies may make
DG
Agreed … there will be plenty of others sitting under the 3% threshold too ( Valuestone etc) be interesting to see who’s soaked up the Blackrock shares as well
But we need this AGM put to bed
If Jiangxi are gonna make a move in the new year it would make sense for them to be accumulating here - gives them additional cheap shares and extra votes
Although I guess one could state a similliar argument for Newcrest/BHP to be buying more to get additional votes
Blackrocks reduction was what % ?
There was that strange 40m (accross x two trades a few weeks back as well)
Quite frankly it’s too hard to judge and too many moving parts
Can’t see Bob and the board sitting back and not doing anything if we do lose though - it could well be that a loss could cause an immediate reaction from Jiangxi - they could bid on both SOLG & CGP at the same time / even offer to compensate CGP at a level to not have them disadvantaged by the merger not yet having been finalised. …..or am I wide of the mark here ?
The vote is very important - but should we lose is it really the end of the road and an instant 50% decimation of the share price ? Hope not
Don’t want to get slaughtered just before Chrimbo
Ho Ho Ho
You can already see Norges voting on their website.
https://www.nbim.no/en/the-fund/responsible-investment/our-voting-records/meeting?m=1692874
Against renumeration report, against James Clare, against Dan Vujcic.
For everything else.
*remuneration, before any of you pedants jump on me
Berry Street confirmed their total support, any idea how much they control?
RCGL…. Good find thanks
RCGL, I’d say with Norges voting ‘for’ on most of the resolutions is very positive indeed
Would take the ‘For votes’ to 33% and the against on 29% …..obviously I’m only counting from the significant investors list ….but Norges voting is significant - sort of cancels out Blackrock if they vote against
Then it comes down to all the smaller institutions and PI votes ……which I’d like to think will in the majority vote ‘For’ - would take quite a swing for the againsts to win
Obviously Clare / Van & Remuneration - are/is still at risk
I thought the pre-emptive rights to issue shares was an important one for the board to continue unhampered - so it’s good Norges voted ‘for’ on that
All in all positive I’d say
Any observations from others ?
Feel like Jon Snow on election days with the swing ‘ometer’
If as many say, Jianxi are going to bid soon, to take Cascabel or Solg as a whole… surely they could vote against, try to unseat the board and see the share price drop further before making any bid? Just a contrarian thought.. why would Jianxi be so keen to vote positive to all resolutions?
Obviously via Valuestone
I guess they could Orthern - however if they did that they wouldn’t be issued any further shares by the board I would assume - also they would jeopardise the merger going through which would make it simpler if they do have desires on making a bid.
They would also open the door to BHP/Newcrest appointing a board member with a weakened SOLG board giving them more opportunity to gain a greater grip and eventuality dilute PI’s into oblivion (including Jiangxi)
One would also have thought that Jiangxi have been vetted prior to coming on the register as friendly and maybe votes were already pledged
Only my opinion though and very much like looking at contrarian angles
Also potentially serves no real purpose for them to get the shareprice lower if they have eventual desires on making a bid - would of course allow them to load up more on open market at a cheaper price - but any real volume would soon switch the price back up.
Also if they subsequently bid at a lower price - let’s say a silly price of 20p it would be rejected anyway and would also be countered by BHP (maybe) - BHP / Newcrest may or may not have desires on SOLG but they are certainly not going to just sell their shares cheap even if they don’t counter bid
So in my mind Jiangxi will vote ‘For’ all resolutions
I posted earlier that no one is paying attention to the 50 million which is ring fenced for Cascabel.
Think about it, we can only spend it on Cascabel, nothing else.
Why have we agreed these terms and taken the money.
Only one idea works.
We are Going for a JV.
I’m not sure anybody here knows Paul - they are under the 3% threshold so don’t report - but it’s good to know they have pledged for the ‘For’ vote
Q, most of that cash will go on employment and associated costs. Of course a certain amount will be spent on advancing the technical aspects of the project, but that 50m isn't going to get us far.
Nobody can make a move on Solgold as long as BHP and NCM are able to influence the board via their shareholding’s and their lobbying of other shareholders. Just as BHP needs a board supportive of their agenda, Jiangxi needs one that will be supportive of their bid, if any. Suitors will make bids based on their valuation of Cascabel or Solgold. Destabilising the share price in order to get a ‘good deal’ is not really a thin. Any bid cannot be too far from being independently assessed as being fair or reasonable, regardless of what the share price is.
Norges and BlackRock are not on the side of the retail shareholders. And there’s nothing nefarious about that, they are simply acting according to the objectives of their funds, and making the best coin from a sale of Cascabel / Solgold is not necessarily their objective.
2Luke, the reason why BHP and NCM want the share price as low as possible is because they honestly believe they can get some form of control of the company by spruiking weak shareholder confidence and or waiting for a potential coup at an AGM. More importantly, the share price is so undervalued that it will be an easy sell for a bidder to secure approval from their investment committee and post their bid
I honestly believe the current BOD have pushed the co forward as much as possible (hence barbs thrown by Maxit) so post AGM I would expect bids to present themselves...
Reko did is a mine in ****stan which barrick gold have paid near 9 billion $ and a 50% royalty to the govt.solgold is much bigger in regards licences and barrick still have to build the mine and infrastructure.Any valuation of solgold
I beleive even a third of that but wdik.
One of the newspapers notes that PIRC is advising shareholders to vote against some of the AGM Resolutions. It's unclear as to which ones - perhaps the same as Norges. The PIRC web site is not working so I couldn't find further details.
It's also worth having a look at the latest Morning Star shareholder list (end Nov). It makes for interesting reading.
Surprised you pointed this out addicknt as it goes against everything you've been saying.
The key point is it describes Solgold as an emerging multi asset major.
We will be at taking this to production.
For me this is the relevant part.
About SolGold plc
SolGold is an emerging multi-asset major and leading exploration company focused on the discovery, definition, and development of world class copper and gold deposits. SolGold is one of the largest concession holders in Ecuador exploring the length and breadth of this highly prospective section of the Andean copper belt. They are positioned to support Ecuador’s transformation into the next copper frontier that the world needs to achieve a net zero future.
Correct quady exploration company leading to mining by others that's exactly what NM does read his history prove it up sell it on to highest bidder to the benefit of all shareholders
Good morning Bubble I suggest you read the article that addicknt is alluding to.
It has all the numbers and it clearly says that Solgold is becoming a multi asset major.