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Many of us have always hoped that if the likes of BHP moved for Solg there would be at least one other counter bidder.
With all the connections Nick has made over the years it's possible he could easily put together or even front a consortium to bid or counter bid. We know he has connections with Jiang Xi via Valuestone , he has a relationship with Franco (and perhaps Boliden) who could guarantee offtake and funding between them and he has indirect control of at least 25% of the stock in issue.
He has 300m shares (including DGR) and wont be giving them away
Could this be the ace up his sleeve ???
I thought everyone hated him though DBW. All we heard was of his massive ego that made him impossible to work with.
I think you're right by the way. This is the ace (joker the wrong term) in our pack.
However, it's quite probable that BHP knows this. How do you starve them out though?
If SOLG raised their limit in equity each year before anti dilution rights apply BHP can just maintain their stake in the open market. Or they could sell their stake aggressively and trash the share price.
There's a solution though. It requires a bait. A sacrificial lamb if you want to call it that.
Id like to think its possible... I cant see Mather being happy to let his holding just wither away..
Solg simply HAVE to get the PFS update out and immediately announce their intentions to monetise.... (Im hoping this is agreed already with CGP hence their silence) They clearly cant carry on like this.. with delusions of going it alone in a world of tightening finance markets..
The market has zero belief our board can take Cascabel forward. Our track record of sliding timelines means its absurd to believe Solg can bring it online, on schedule and on budget... you only have to look at previous presentations from 2 years ago to see how far its all slipped.. The completely inevitable cost overruns of construction would bankrupt tiny Solg.. you only have to look at Oyu Tolgoi to see the experts get it wrong... and when it goes wrong on giant block caves the extra costs run to billions!
I dont see BHP or NCM making a bid any time soon, as much as we all hope it will happen. BHP are more likely to bid for NCM before Solg. I think BHP are happy to let Solg just sit on the side and wither knowing they could in theory, step in at any point.. when Solg end up in trouble.. no rush for them..
Just get the PFS out and monetise it!!!
Lol Bozi .....I don't hate him, in fact he's the only one aligned with pi's with huge skin in the game.
They could in deed sell their stake off for that reason and we'd need someone with deep pockets to pick up the slack.
What would the bait be in the form of though Bozi ?
I would have thought the low moral of some shareholders over the dwindling pot of cash and faltering SP would have been a strong catalyst but not so far.
As you say we need a something to cause a flashpoint, as someone said earlier this week, the threat of a big change in the BOD seems not to be enough as we thought that with the demise of Mather and it wasn't sufficient to spark a bid.
http://www.solgold.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/SolGold_Corporate_PPT_2020-Jan-22_FINAL.pdf
you only have to look at p16 of this presentation to see how its impossible to believe Solg can and will hit their milestones..
We are 2.5 years behind schedule just with the PFS!! No one of sound mind could truly believe Solg are capable of going it alone
Ortherncopper we are behind because of Covid, situation much better now.
Sorry DBW. I I was referring to BHP, NCM, Irwin and the folks at CGP and potentially others.
He has made many enemies by driving the hard bargain for retail investors and I sincerely hope you're right that he has something up his sleeve.
Jezzoo - it has to be someone with deepish pockets, someone BHP deem credible.
Someone like a Fortesque.
Basically, someone has to make the first move, at the risk that BHP say "go on you have it".
Nobody really believes BHP would do that. So what is the alternative? Drive the price low so that the opening offer is paltry and then BHP come in with something many believe to be fairer. Then the Mather consortium appears at the 11th hour.
It's wishful thinking and I'm half expecting Mathers finger to appear calling me Meg, but it's the only way I can see BHP losing out. If they go toe to toe with Mather's proxy then we all win.
Bozi .... I see Cascabel as the sacrificial lamb in some ways
I think the consortium would bid for Cascabel alone. Say 50p which in the current climate might well get the nod. This would put plenty in Solgold's coffers to continue on exploring/proving up. My guess is this would probably force BHP into a bid for the lot. At this stage selling there stake into the market would be rendered pointless.
Nick keeps his interest in Cascabel and his Solgold shares increase in value ..... as do ours.
typo their....
I no longer think BHP will make the first move
DBW - just a gentle reminder its 'their'
I'm not so sure DBW.
We've discussed in the past how a purchase of Cascabel raises a large tax liability for SolGold and I don't know if the company ever fully negated that by changing their corporate structure?
In any event, my concern would be that SolGold becomes cash rich but flagship asset-less.
I've seen these markets disregard cash wealthy companies on many occasions and I'm not sure that Porvenir has the necessary scale to develop as a tier 1? I think we'd have a rocky road getting the project added to those avoiding the moratorium and our relations with the Ecuadorean government may even deteriorate if Cascabel's ownership went east.
In short, I think the pitfalls outweigh the benefits.
Already corrected below ....by the way it's has an apostrophe.
Another decent thread about to get the kibosh no doubt, but that's why you're here isn't it ?
The sad thing Bozi is that after all these years we're all just guessing.
Lolzzz, you lot are asking for it by engaging with it ;))
Anyway on target to hit 17p by tomorrow ?
Good posts Dbw and Bozi, pretty much where my head is at here.
DBW you're a genius...that works for me...but you left out the wild card...
Gina Rinehart...
Good fit I think she is pretty close to the top of Australia’s Rich list ?
Where’s Fortissimo when you need him . He may have a different angle and his views always welcome
Red
Further more Gina's Han**** have several properties around Cascabel..........
R's
BN.c
Hey BN.c how you doing?
Not been in touch with Elliott for a while so no idea where we are in terms of crests and troughs. Don't suppose you can see a tsunami on the horizon? If you spot one I would be pleased to be the first one to hear about it!
Take care and don't work too hard................
Rgds G.
Hi Goldenegg
V long time no speak matey
Trust ur chipper me ol fruit.
Not really looked properly of late
I’d expected 20p to hold but with wider market pressures on stocks and in particular Junior Miners, and our lack of any significant good news, that level didn’t hold.
I have my holdings and tbh doubt I’ll add much more to the pot…….
If get chance I’ll see what things look like chartwise…….suffice to say we still remain on a bearish trajectory……..
Dunno if u have my contact details but if so drop me a line matey
Atvb
Bn.c