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Can't be long before BHP knock on our door
https://tinyurl.com/5n769bd9
strong results and reduced dividends for BHP today
Keeping some money back
mog999,
Nice read, cheers
The trouble with "Keeping some money back" is that $5bln soon becomes $4.5bln in this high inflationary environment. Perfect times for M&A as cash Is deployed into value increasing assets. It does make me laugh when BHP say their first offer was full and fair. BHP clearly didn't make a full and fair offer for Noront at 55cents as they increased it to 75 cents just a month or so later. OZ Minerals share price currently $26 against BHP's offer of $25. My guess is that they'll nudge that OZ Minerals offer up to $28 and say that's a great deal for shareholders and I reckon that will get knocked back.
But contemplate this, if they do up their offer by only 10% and then genuinely walk away, OZ Minerals share price will fall back into the teens. And then guess what... they make a bid for SOLG and say the usual 'fair and full' statements and when they raise it by just 10% or 15% a second time, it's going to make a lot of us think hard. Just as Noront was a great case of a stock that got bid from 23 cents to eventually 110 cents, OZ Minerals might end up being a warning sign if it fails early.
I do wonder if BHP are setting the scene with Oz Minerals bid. I guess we'll find out. All part of the M&A game.
Lots of positives to take from that article tks mog999
BHP certainly do look flush at the moment. Even if they came at us with a lowball offer it would transform our situation instantly. But do they make a move now or wait till we are in a state of distress?
sean, what would you do if you were in their shoes?
Yesterday's article suggesting they were blackmailing us was utterly outrageous. If true, it suggests our relationship with them has broken down completely and flies in the face of the peace treaty announced last year.
We have no way of knowing if it is in fact accurate, but if it is DC needs to face them down and push ahead with something else, even if it does provoke an open war.
We seem to have reached a crunch point with these blokes and we cannot allow them to push us around any longer.
Add …. Who knows how accurate that article was , if at all, but with the AGM looming and at stand off seemingly taking place , something haas to give …. Been a long time coming
It does feel like there are factions that are determined to rock the boat and instigate some kind of takeover, JV etc.
SOLG has been in a kind of limbo for at least the last 12 months.
I missed the black mail article. Can anyone repost it please
Looking at the Oz share price, it's been over $25 for large chunks of the last year. At the start of the year it was over $28. To claim that $25 is full and fair seems ridiculous to me, it's just pure opportunism when the SP has dipped due to short term copper weakness.
It's not like some company that has got itself into trouble, loaded up with debt with a declining business and seen its share price decline by 75% over several years, in which case a 30% premium to current price probably seems like a blessing to put shareholders out of their misery. BHP's offer is less than what you would have paid for OZ shares just a few months ago, while at the same time their own in house economists are trumpeting great future demand for copper over the medium to long term.
If they offered the same for Solg right now, offer at 29p or similar, I'm sure virtually every Solg shareholder would say F off.
Also I realise Oz was trading at $10 or under pre covid, but that was a different era and frankly BHP should have snapped it up back then for $13 or $15 or something. It's not like they suddenly woke up last week and just realized copper is going to be in short supply. That horse has bolted and agree with CD, copper miners are not going cheap any more.
Plus Solg has been in or above its current price for years on and off, so again, such an optimistic low ball just wouldn't cut it here I feel.
Also I realise Oz was trading at $10 or under pre covid, but that was a different era and frankly BHP should have snapped it up back then for $13 or $15 or something. It's not like they suddenly woke up last week and just realized copper is going to be in short supply. That horse has bolted and agree with CD, copper miners are not going cheap any more.
Plus Solg has been in or above its current price for years on and off, so again, such an optimistic low ball just wouldn't cut it here I feel.
BHP have 20million options at 37p I think or is it 39p? It's small fry but it is an example of where they were happily content some years ago. Yes there has been some dilution since their 45p investment, but on the whole, I can't see BHP having any success at all with any chancer offers sub 50p. At 23.5p today, a move akin to Noront would see low ball delivered at 47p. Then following same Noront theme, a 50% increase to final bid would see 73p ish. There's a few analysts out there around that lower figure and a few a decent 10p to 20p higher.
We all know we are worth well north of £1 but to get there, we really need a bid war. You never know, that might come from NCM and BHP going head to head as one article suggested. Or it might be via someone like Barrick which had cosy chats with lasso recently.
But sub 50p is not going happen imho. I can't see Blackrock, Norges, tenstar, DGR, CGP or very many rolling over at that level. Add another 25% to that and it starts to get tricky in the minds of a few larger II's.
2x1 trades hmmm
Have u made a massive investment or is it a tiny trade
Percentage of trading pot.
I thought the idea healthy trading is buy low sell high, not the other way.....:)
Unless you trying to reverse a premature trade...
GL anyway.
Come on break 24p ;)