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So heres a plausible scenario...
First I'm not alone on here in believing that the two major factors in the depression of the share price over the last 17 months have been:
Darryl's astonishing incompetence in trying to persuade the Board to embark on a failed cashbox raise...its failure and the market backlash that followed when SOLG was perceived to be desperate for cash.
The forced liquidation by Berry Street when the SP had established a solid base between 14 and 15.
But a third important factor has been the state of the global economy, especially including high inflation, and the continuing depression of metals prices, the mining sector and especially gold, copper and Junior Miners.
At a time when the SP had already been weakened by the above, this was a perfect storm to batter the SP.
Indeed if you compare the copper price and gold price charts since April, you will see a close correlation until Berry Street hammered the SP just as the latter were showing signs of turning up...
So we've missed the effect of the sharply better metals prices...so far...
And don't you think that Sangha will have advise the Board from April onwards that it was entirely the wrong time to be seeking a sale and that, as Nick has forecast for years, eventually the impending massive copper shortages would impose themselves on metals prices.
So I now believe we are approaching a positive perfect storm...
Scott has used the time to revisit the PFS to produce a 'bankable' one that is far more bankable and attractive to a range of bidders, with cheaper and quicker construction, getting ore mined and positive cashflows sooner, by virtue of an angled shaft into the core of the richest ores (i.e. similar to traditional coal mining), creating the cash flow that will pay for the block cave mine that can then commence construction.
It may well be that Sangha has had informal approaches asking what sort of orice the Board would consider for a sale, because no bidder wants to look stupid by being the first to make a bid that is rejected out of hand.
And based on Nick's previous views on "Asset Value not Market Value" prospectors may have been told "you're not in the ballpark under £1..."
And of course that would ward off interest for the time being until the Board's chosen moment, which would be once PFS3 is produced, together with any remaining required permits.
Sangha is a consummate Corporate Finance professional, embedded within world's mining finance centre, i.e. Canada.
You might say Wall Street, but they are preoccupied withe the "21' high tech companies.
And he would have known at the outset that Cascabel was unfinanceable for a company of Solgold's size without massive dilution.
He would also have the Mining industry connections to know when metals markets and Junior Miners would catch fire.
So PFS3 will arrive at the optimum time in terms of rising markets and savvy bidders may not wait to fire the starting gun
Even though I am les rampy than Red, let e add a couple of factual points to support his general argument.
1) I asked Scott specifically whether there was any chance that they were being too greedy, hence the lack of bids. He said he completely agreed with Nick's view about the value, and they were working to advance Cascabel exactly to make it a turnkey project with the NAV as a benchmark. Now the assumption we can make, but that is an assumption and not a fact, is that indeed prospective buyers may have been dissuaded from bidding low because they were not going to get us, but if that was the case then equally we should conclude that management still feels strong about the prospects even though they cannot tell us in a form that some of the PIs here can understand or appreciate.
2) Investors in this sector, even the half wits, should be able to understand the share price in the context of the general market sentiment. For example, all my "junior" portfolio stocks are down YTD, from -22% to -77% even if most of them actually made some operational progress. The same stocks between Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 were on average 200% higher. Now these are facts, and so is our choice of when to buy and sell and if we bought 200% higher it's not the management's fault. I have commented in a previous post that just based on sentiment returning positive, SOLG would be worth 20-22p, not guessing but actually studying the correlation with GDXJ. Sentiment is an externality and many obviously don't understand it, in fact if the price today was 22p we would each still make exactly the same comments.
A thoroughly sound post Italian.
Thanks
Good morning Italian.
Your post makes complete sense, however it will be placed on a percentage of NPV not NAV because to place it on NAV means we have to be up and running.
This should give some comfort to Share holders across the mining sector
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6ePGvdmlmw&ab_channel=StockBox
The Braggart and the father of the BB are upset because they have failed in their attempts to force people to vote their way, based on their half-baked guesses and puffed up self importance. I will vote as I see fit because they are my shares and I don't need narcissistic tools telling me how I should vote in a democracy ballot.
Thank you Mog...and we were discussing sentiment just a few minutes ago, what a coincidence!
Just think Eloro, how will the godfather (Irwin) be voting?
Will he let any of his misgivings about the direction of travel get in the way of his decision making? I think not. 😉
Hold the line or take your stand. That's what this boils down to.
The Italian, thank you for your superb post. The Frank Guistra interview makes the case for how "out of fashion the PM Mining industry are" and have been for a considerable time. Today the POG opened at $2050/Oz on Goldseek. The trend is upwards in parallel to a rapidly changing world where the West is under the cosh! Note, payment for oil by certain Middle East Countries will soon be in Gold! The USD is topping and when the FED lowers Interest rates, starts to print more dollars and pivots, the POG can be expected to go ballistic. Payment of their debt their biggest problem. In all of this there could be a gigantic change in SENTIMENT towards PM Miners by investors realising the value of major miners!
You said previously: "Not before price of gold reaches $2200. We are only $150 short and the POG has been known to rise by a $100 at a time! So not far off!
I am hoping we will see a bid in the next 3 months!! Fingers crossed, GLA
Excellent Eish...
If I was a serious bidder, I wouldn't be waiting around for metals, minerals and Junior Miners to go ballistic...
Mind you, based on the Noront experience, any bidding war starting now is going to be carried through to that inevitable scenario, finally for our mutual benefit...
PFS3 could even be redundant by the time it is published...if not, the inbuilt assumptions of PFS1/2 on Gold at $1700, silver at $19 and copper at $3.70 will surely have to be revised sharply upwards...?
Copper close to a 4 month high exactly mirrors the dollar at a 4 month low...
Hi Bozi, I haven't reached out to Warren to check how he will be voting. I figured that is between him and his maker.
I think the The Italian is the one who regard himself as the godfather, Don Corleone. I won't be kissing his ring and vote how he would like me to vote:)
Eloro. i have to say, apart from your ridiculous claims regarding you and Irwin being muckers.
I have to say, im coming round to liking your posts, you stand your ground with the muppets,
you also come across as someone who doesn't feel the need to suck upto others, and stick with your convictions. I honestly think ive done you an injustice,
so not that it matters one iota to you. good luck with your investments
Cheers NAL,
When I purchased my solg shares, the money was transferred from my Barclays account to my Halifax account. I didn't see a deposit from the Braggart, nor anyone else contributing to my purchase. Yet these BB narcissists think they have the right to tell me how to vote!! The cheek of some people.
NAL, Warren is on twitter and does respond to tweets and direct messages. He is a great and humble guy who doesn't let his wealth go to his head. He is always polite and will respond to queries. Rick Rule on the other hand wants to be paid to answer questions. It's no obstacle, just dm Warren if you have a query.
Crikey, the same old bunfights over here I see. Sold these and bought into Marula. Nice to have a CEO with vision and determination.
Eloro
Warren won’t be drawn on other directors but thinks Scott is
“Doing a great job” and has said so to several investors
Agreed DBW. I did see Warren's tweet in support Scott.
I think he mentioned to Add that some directors might be in trouble. Add mentioned Twigger. Lo and behold, Twigger will not stand for re-election.
I will wait until next week to cast my vote to see if any good news manifest.
This guy posted on here a while ago, but disappeared onto twitter
Hubrishunter
"The Ecuadorian Constitutional Court and Noboa will create all the right legal conditions for mining by January. $Solg Solgold is only months away from emerging from this rout"
https://twitter.com/hubrishunter/status/1729449359878836483
Jitters..
Thanks for your post. I believe Scott is also a CEO "with vision and determination" if you read the latest MD&A and all that he has been doing to derisk SOLG for complete or partial sale...
Since your informative post I've been analysing Marula, which does indeed look very interesting. I shall be watching it with a view to investing further down the road...but not now...
It has undoubted potential, but at the half year had 3.343m payables and only 443k receivables. Even accounting for the issue of 1.1m shares at 14p its going to need further cash raise(s) to fund capex and production. I expect equity issues now its on AIM, but with a MCap of only c£12m I suspect you will find that a painful experience.
I fully expect SOLG, ATYM and JAY to be far better investments over the next 6 months or so, but good luck to you.
Thanks again
He was driven away in frustration by the usual suspects on here.
Thoroughly sound and I've followed him on Twiitter ever since.
Thanks mog
According to your post on 22 September you sold out at c14p for a loss from 16p, so well done...
But you've missed the chance to get back into these 35% lower, virtually at the bottom before a steady rise...
typed a huge long reply and it vanished so a few bullet points….
marula will be massively cash generative in the new year, probably generating their current market cap each month.
they don’t need funding, they are going into partnership with qgc and *****on van de burgh the south african mining billionaire is funding the mining equipment etc, a reasonably amount of which is already delivered and in operation.
marula are not listed on aim but will be listing on the main london market early next year we are told with a nairobi listing due hopefully by year end.
sold solg for a loss at 13p, bought maru at 9p (ish) so happy with the move. to be fair solg looks cheap here but it’s not doing anything, there’s no excitement, no story here it’s just waiting for a bid.
anyway, won’t clog up the thread any further and good luck with solg.
And the xib short will dissappear just before this :-)
@thejitters How can you trust Jason Brewer? do some research on that character before investing on marula...
@Eloro, about your comment about the Godfather, A) it wasn't me, and B) it's a completely inappropriate undertone and bad taste on your side.
MOG, thanks again for the useful post.
For those who don't speak Spanish, the interview is basically the demonstration that we need to worry more about Ecuador's convoluted politics and sensitivities, than SOLG's management.