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To remind Dart...
On 11 April SOLG was 40.35
Gold was $19.70
Copper was $4.70
They will return and so will the SOLG SP...
Exactly Add ….. but why let the facts get in the way of a good story eh
Dart, we do know - the timeline of the discussions was laid out in their circular to shareholders.
Obviously Warren Irwin and co by refusing NM’s bid for CGP rejected the opportunity to monetise their shareholders simply by putting them in a position to sell their SOLG shares. Now, of course, it is desperation stakes. It would not surprise me if CGP made the approach to SOLG. However, we will never know.
As the directors of CGP were unable to sell their company even with big “For Sale” notices posted, why do they think they will fare any better trying to sell the enlarged SOLG?
We will see, but I have to say that I am not convinced that they will be successful, and, if they are, then the price realised is anything above about 30p. I hope that I am wrong with this prediction!
Frog
If I remember correctly CGP valued themselves at $12.50 in their last aggressive rejection...
Currently $3.87 having been $5.23 when SOLG hit 40p in April...
Addicknt - I think it's a pretty safe assumption to make given the implied value of SOLGs offer vs their opinion of fair value the last time SOLG approached them. The two valuations were poles apart so that suggests to me a reluctant acceptance of the olive branch in order to pursue the ultimate goal.
But had an offer materialised from a party not connected to ENSA, I do believe they'd have taken that and left SOLG to parlay with the new minority owners.
Cornerstone obviously were well aware as well that SOLG had issued a PFS to time back in May and may have been operationally straightened out by DC thus bringing their own financial commitments to the Cascabel project into view.
It's an interesting one. Don't disagree with your point about the value opportunity of selling a minor stake but think it's possible to see it both ways.
Thanks Bozi and addickt. Those two erudite posts have created a worthy debate.
All sound.
Bozi, one quibble: We don't know that they weren't able to sell the company - it may simply be the case that they realised they'd get better value by being part of the larger entity. From a corporate finance perspective this makes perfect sense; you rarely receive full value by selling a minority stake. It's also worth bearing in mind that it was us who approached them, not the other way round. This hardly indicates desperation on their part.
The other side of this coin is that we realised we'd be making life more difficult for ourselves by having them outside the tent if we were to enter discussions with an interested party.
Redknight - just to pick up on your post from earlier raising various questions.
"Why on earth would CGP Directors and major shareholders, previously aggressively at loggerheads with Mather, now have bonded with him...do you really think they would have merged CGP with SOLG to settle for 33/40p...?"
There's two very good reasons for that. One is that they haven't been able to sell their company as a standalone entity. The second is because they can't cash out their chips on the ridiculously illiquid venture exchange over in Canada. So, barring a bit of corporate jiggerypokery with SOLG, they were stuck.
I don't think they're desperate to cash out for 30-40p by the way, but if that were the ballpark of the only serious offer on the table I do think they would take it. We know what their motivations have been from the start and with their SOLG stock tied in at this price level, a quick 100-150% on their takeover premium of 20odd % represents a quick win for them and importantly an exit.
"Why go to all this trouble and cost to settle for a takeout ;price that would be BELOW what the SP was on April 11th? Just nine months ago...the talks between the two parties have been going on at least that long..."
It's all circumstantial, surely? Haven't you been saying yourself that you want out before the markets tank in 2023? As such, we might all be forced to accept something sub-optimal. If we were moving into commodity bull markets then I think we could apply an infinitely more bullish outlook, but unfortunately we appear to be a couple of years away from this and we know it's darkest before the dawn.
"The idea that it might come down to a battle between Jiangxi and BHP doesn't hold water for me. I seriousluy expect that maybe more than a dozen serious contenders may have run a preliminary rule over Solgold...just count the number of players already in Ecuador and none have the total prospect that wehave."
The issue here is that we're no longer the only play in town. Over in Latin America alone we have Solaris Resources, Filo Mining, Regulus Resources and others with similar sorts of assets. Don't get me wrong, we might have the biggest tonnage but the other assets have their redeeming features. Our hand would be strengthened if there were no credible alternatives.
Tesla …. You plum
As usual completely deluded and no wonder with your desperate T20 gambling as admitted to by yourself yesterday.
This will never ever be sold for anywhere near a £1 and your reminiscing of Noront, in much better markets and geography, just highlights how deluded and desperate you are.
Keep on rolling over those T trades, oh sorry I mean bed and breakfast those T trades….lol…..and fill those mm’s pockets
They love clowns like you……
Hi Red
Good post as usual …. Re 1sn as you know I have a few and would like more but would need to sell a few here , which I’m not prepared to do .
Let Sangha weave his magic then we can all finally move on …. ATVB DBW
1SN starting to move...Ingo and Nick are on the Board together...
Maybe Nick's next plaything after SOLG is sold...?
Orthern I corrected my error...
I predict this will go for between 80/120p...
Thats down from what I consistently said before because of the extra dilution.
You can complain ramping, bjut this afternoons discussions feel like derampiong...
"That recent 16p price was both worrying and revealing to me, and will be used as a starting point for any deal.. and all the 300% plus Noront comparisons in the world don’t get us anywhere close to £1 from 15p."""
If that doiesn't count as deramping I don't know what does...
Ask yourself these questions:
Why on earth would CGP Directors and major shareholders, previously aggressively at loggerheads with Mather, now have bonded with him...do you really think they would have merged CGP with SOLG to settle for 33/40p...?
And Mather has consistently said any buyer should focus on Asset Value not Market Value. and the former is way north of 33p...
Why go to all this trouble and cost to settle for a takeout ;price that would be BELOW what the SP was on April 11th? Just nine months ago...the talks between the two parties have been going on at least that long...
The trouble is that fear and disappointment are being allowed to drive the conversations on here. I am every bit as disappointed to see the SP at 16p but I'm not selling a penny of what is now a 2.5 million holding.
Not because I'm cussed or desperate but because the endgame here will be life changing and the only thing that worries me is the market in general.
Maxit were appointed by Wyloo before they bid 70c and the takeoout was 110c...Noront is nothing like the riches we have here...
The idea that it might come down to a battle between Jiangxi and BHP doesn't hold water for me. I seriousluy expect that maybe more than a dozen serious contenders may have run a preliminary rule over Solgold...just count the number of players already in Ecuador and none have the total prospect that wehave.
Add in the certainty of a copper price boom...Goldmans say $15,000...and the long overdue gold price boom with its attendant Junior Miners M&A frenzy and you have the makings of real fireworks...
No I'm not ramping. Of course I'm speculating, but thats why I'm here.
And personally I think the 'strategic review' is a smokescreen and won't see the light of day...
This has been set up for a takeover battle and Maxit is the ringmaster as they were for Wyloo...
So why is the SP where it is? Because there are no significant sellers and little liquidity so the price drifts on no news to a price where MMs can make money...
But also because so many people think like Fort and Orthern, that there is little to go for; few are convinced there is a takeover battle coming; some even think we're waiting for production; and fear is driving the market. So if somebody was silly enough to bid 33p I bet a fair few even here would dump shares with relief...
Always open for debate. Seasons greetings.
Ortherncopper,
I don't spend much time on the bb's these days as am invested in SOLG and believe it will pan out just fine. I think all this 'ramp' stuff lives in your head a bit and yes there's been a fair dose of it but not exactly unusual for BB's. Have you read the GGP BB?? On the whole, I think the SOLG BB is pretty grounded and if anything it's posters like yourself that have been dishing out more doom and gloom than ever before. Why you think it appropriate now when we are at rock bottom puzzles me as you were not exactly doom and glooming when the sp was in the mid 30's were you?
The dose of reality you talk about is what exactly? What's the fantasy exactly? Echo chamber? What echo chamber? All these things seem to live in your head as I can't see them on this BB at all.
Everything looks fine here. The sp will sort itself out pretty quickly once the merger is done and the ARB traders have settled their books.
Certainly more doom sayers of late than rampers... that's for sure. I have a hunch why.... because most are not invested lol!
Hi Fort.. Your post earlier highlighting that 33p is now the new 42p equivalence makes the point I’ve raised previously about people needing to review new high point expectations given where we are now, only you phrased it all far better than me, using examples.
The naming a tier one that didn’t sell at a fair price came from Irwin if I’m not mistaken? And it’s a fair point…. But what is a fair price for one person is a poor price for another.. and it’s negatively and gloom, it’s just an acceptance of where we are.. everything is not rose tinted at the moment. I guess we will see at some point in the new year what parties consider fair value.
It’s only fair that alternative viewpoints are expressed when certain posters post ludicrous claims of up to £2 a share…
absurd, misleading ramps are dangerous for any potential investor viewing this board, that is not aware of all the background.. and history.. an alternative dose of reality, not fantasy, can stop the echo chamber effect.
Orthern, bear in mind they are about to be diluted, which they obviously knew about, so the 16p reflected that fact.
Ortherncopper,
I wouldn't get too tied to that 16p+ placing price. It's not far off the 20p placing price seen a year or so back. You have to account for the fact that the entity taking the placing had full knowledge of the dilution coming from the merger. Hence likely baked in. Furthermore (and this might be the reason for the swift action) regulators across the pond would need to see SOLG's cash balance swell before they could sanction and approve the merger. Sometimes you have to discount a little when you are in a rush. It's up to you if you you want to dwell on the placing price but remember, BHP paid 45p for a slice a few years ago. Norges bought over 3% at averages near 30p. Valuestone took some at 32p. We've had plenty of placings before in mid 20's and this taking the placing had firm sights set on 40's and 50's I'm sure.
And remember, Noront moved from 23 cents to 110 cents. Not sure where you got 300% from? Noront example would get us exactly where we need to be... just need. bidding war to commence. Incidentally, could you name me one tier 1 gold/copper mine that hasn't been sold for a fair price?? Just name one... and if you can't then perhaps you can dampen down your negativity and gloom posting.
Unfortunately Bozi I think any price range will be lower than many fantasise about.. and Maxit will be happy with a lower exit point than pretty much everyone, having just printed themselves a load of shares at 16p. Any sale in the 30s from there, in short order, would be a nice earner in their eyes.
My worry from here now, is how much interest is there really? Bob can’t induce offers if interest has waned and the Solg story has now gone stale and mouldy…
I keep returning to the question… if there was genuine interest out there, why sell such a large stake at just 16p?… surely a much better price, for such a large position, could have been achieved if our asset was so sought after…. That recent 16p price was both worrying and revealing to me, and will be used as a starting point for any deal.. and all the 300% plus Noront comparisons in the world don’t get us anywhere close to £1 from 15p.
Hi Bozi
Afraid I don’t work in the business but I do know people in the sector who rate him second to none at what he does. The view is he will take this (for want of a better expression) to market and it should be “fairly easy” to find willing bidders. I’d just like to add that anyone I speak to is not directly associated with Solgold, but their story is well known and a takeover widely seen as inevitable.
For all I know we could be having the same conversation in six months time but I doubt it.
These people thrive on their reputations “fast and smart” seems to be the message.
Happy new year to you …. DBW
You'd think so Orthern but what happens if all interested parties get round the table and talk about valuations of between £600-800m for the lot (so 30-60% upside post merger)?
There will be a lot of unhappy people in that price range, and so all the wrangling will start again.
I think Maxit will be happy to get this sold as seen for that price range. Folks like DBW put a lot of stock in Bob Sangha- maybe he (DBW) works in the industry and has had positive professional dealings with Bob in the past, but I'm going to be a bit more reserved.
I think with all the will in the world the intention will be to drive a hard bargain the likes of those spoken by Redknight, but it's all theory until we see it in RNS, isnt it...
£1.32 .... tick tock tick tock or is it tap tap tap tap lol!!:)
Gosh this man can't help himself he entitled his cut-and-paste job noront parallels but it seems to be noront parallel as the only thing that links them is instructing Maxit but this blatant ramper wants everyone on the board to assume that solg will follow the exact same path as notont when there are so many clear differences they the level headed people here will understand. It is desperate and I say again it is so stupid to think it can change the share price by every day writing the same ramping stuff on the tiny message board does he think a major mining company will read his noront post and think oh gosh I need to buy solg?? Such a tool thanks for the recommends earlier clear it is not just me seeing through this boring rampy prikk
Hi Lunch, I think it was this...
"You've probably guessed, I'm very experienced in all things SOLG. I do a lot of research. I hope to use this board to exchange views on SOLG updates and news items with similarly knowledgeable posters."
...that struck me as something the LunchMoney of old would never have typed.
Good to have you back, your posts on AGM day were helpful and necessary. Try not to get too wound up by the nonsense.