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Sending a virtual IOU to all posters who kindly shared their
thoughts from the AGM for a few Beers.... Huge thanks for
your time and generosity to other shareholders... Hope
to see you at the next AGM and a few other regulars on here..ATB!
M.
Big Jonnys buy out party I hope
Tommy - on When asking the question why didn’t they think about the impact of SOC I think you also need to ask what you expect them to have done about it?
If the metabolic pathway suggested that interferon would fail the trial under SOC, I would have expected them not to go ahead with it and establish a fail but to rethink the trial & perhaps say that developments in SOC have undermined the effectiveness of interferon. Instead, we wasted all that time waiting for a dud when perhaps experts in the field had an inling/could guess/knew what was coming. What was the advantage in going ahead? We know they are enthusiastic about long Covid, COPD & other uses, what is the benefit of that sophisicated a trial nullified by a clash that may have been anticipated in its metabolic biochemistry?
Very kind offer Manifesto!! Yes, would be great for a few of us to meet at Big Jonnys at some point when the SP is considerably higher and put a bit of cash into his tills :-)
I m not sure I’d describe 70% reduction in severity amongst a 3rd of the trial as a dud.
But we each have our own views on what is a highly complex disease that even now few fully understand.
ATB
Blue
We’ve found the company to be quite open to discussion and you clearly understand the science at a far higher level than I and many on this board.
I’d be surprised if there was a test they’d missed that could have shown them their drug doesn’t work and they were wasting everyone’s time but It would probably be useful for you to email either Philip Monk or Brooke Clarke at Synairgen with your question. They really are open to all questions,
It’s a shame you didn’t raise it earlier as I’d have been happy to pass it on to those attending from this or other groups
ATB
This is exceptional work, Doc83 and Wigster77. Thank you!
Hi Tommy, to be fair to Blue he did submit a few questions and they were asked and answered in a lot more detail than we put in the summary - it's a shame because they did give some really comprehensive answers ref SPRINTER, SOC, End Points etc but as you can imagine it was very difficult to write down every point made.
I would agree with you that a nicely worded E-mail to Synairgen is likely to get a detailed response.
HSD,
Yup. That’s how clinical trials usually work.The patient’s under supervision.
How else will you prove superiority to the ‘competition’(SOC) - bearing in mind this is a Phase III - if you simply add one on top of the other? It makes no sense.
A Phase III in asthma would never involve adding say, a novel bronchodilator in top of SOC salbutamol or budesonide. The results would be meaningless.
That’s great to hear Wigster and I hope he gets the answers he seeks.
My perspective on P3 for what it’s worth:
P2 no one had steroids so I’m not sure how the company could have known the impact and extent of their use would impact P3
SOC improves dramatically and I’m not just talking about Dexamethesone. A wide and diverse range of drugs became available like Remdesivir and numerous others now listed in clinical guidance.
Vaccines became available and widely used
The virus mutated and it’s severity changed.
Autoantibodies play some critical role in deciding which patients may become sicker than others.
We have some of the worlds leading respiratory scientist and I simply don’t accept that there was or should have been some obvious knowledge they missed that indicated their drug wouldn’t work.
In fact the drug has been shown to work in multiple
Trials if targeted at the right group of patients and discovering that so called responder group has been a learning curve
Thanks Doc and Wigster for your time and effort. Above and beyond but shows that there remains a sense of community on here which is still valuable. From the crack in the bottom draw there appears to be a flickering light at the end of a tunnel. Long way back for many of us but you have managed to offer some form of optimism, that would otherwise be absent, by taking the time to share your experience. Humanity still needs this to be good, one mutation away from disaster. GLA.
Thanks for the brilliant feedback from the AGM.
I think this message board will be a lot quieter over the next few months as a few long term holders put this share mentally in the bottom drawer now the AGM is out of the way. This share and message board had probably become an unhealthy obsession for many over the last 2 plus years.
From a personal point of view the AGM went as I expected with no new startling information but some hope for the future. I’m still not sure if Synairgen management are driven to commercialise the product or comfy as a university spin research company earning very good salaries. Polygon may not ultimately act in small holders interests but at least they will hold the management to account in the short term. Time will tell and I hope I’m wrong but I don’t see the share price above £1 in the next 18 months.
I’ve mainly been a silent observer but thanks to all (nearly all) who have contributed on this board over the last couple of years. It feels like we were so near but so far.
I’m going to maintain my holding for the long term but will probably only check in quarterly.
Good luck with all your investments.
Cheers
SBT
Thanks for the report gents.
In my previous career I used to go to quite a few company presentations. They are always jolly compelling. But from what you say, it sounds to me as though it’s worth hanging on here to see if something can be salvaged .
TommyD_19,
Thanks for your perspective on the P3 trial - which, oddly, I’ve recommended - because half of me is inclined to give the co. the benefit of the doubt.
The other half is annoyed, firstly with myself for failing to spot the change in Sprinter protocol (I’d have invested much less) and secondly with the co. for overconfidence in going it alone and also going too multi-country.
I am torn between my admiration for Prof Holgate ( with whom I had dealings many years ago) and my distrust of Richard Marsden (the beard was when it began…).
So I guess I’ll watch what develops, with much reduced expectations, but fingers crossed.
You, me and a hundred others.
But I remain confident my loss is a paper loss and the drug has tremendous upside. Even if some extra funding / dilution is required somewhere down the line, compared to the potential value for a variant proof, multi virus drug, we will all still be very happy with our return.
A lot will depend on where we are in June next year, how well the trial is going and what impact that has had on the share price. The more patients we recruit in a PT the better position we are in as a company to a partner. If the drug is working as many of us know it does, if we have the right patient numbers we will prove it. I think many Big Pharma’s recognise that.
Good morning soonbetime,
I too mainly observe on here but thought it worth replying to your post.
I attended the AGM and from my observations the BoD certainly gave a robust impression that they are driven to the successful commercialisation of SNG001 and not of one wanting to remain in the backwaters of research & development.
As an aside, they were extremely approachable and took the time to talk to individual investors prior (in welcoming) and more importantly after the AGM, from my perspective I came away invigorated that this company will succeed in the commercialisation of SNG001.
ATB
Thanks jint for your thoughts on the AGM !
I am curious, did anyone ask RM why he did not address shareholders after the SPRINTER results?
Many on here like me thought that as our CEO he should have done a Q&A or at least released a statement
but there was total silence..... Do yo feel he thought that was a mistake and that is why
they were open to questions at the AGM? Thanks!
Hi Manifesto,
I don’t recall that question being raised, they were as shocked as us with the unexpected results as was
intimated at the AGM by the BoD.
My personal opinion (not a mistake) is they needed time to gather their thoughts (rather than rush out a statement) and to fully digest the shortfalls in the Sprinter trial results. Hence the announcement of the deep dive which I was content to wait for rather than having an early statement or Q&A session with no real substance and leaving us still scratching our heads in frustration.
Having spoke to RM after the AGM with a couple of others (he came over to us), I cannot fault his visible commitment and determination to enable the successful commercialisation of SNG001.
He came across honest and genuine, I’m very content to have him as our CEO.
ATB.
Hi jint
Many thanks for the reply! ATB!
The next few months should be pretty positive for us.
I’m sure the usual suspects will push the running out of money, dilution and a buyout for 30p nonsense way beyond credibility but ignore that.
We should get a peer review soon
We will get positive results from Activ2 otherwise we wouldn’t have progressed.
It seems clear. From RM’s comments “We’re top of the pile for data and results for a PT” and his “Happy to say strongly envisage treating patients this winter” that we will be on a PT for COVID-19
We may even be part of a JV multi virus trial
Long Covid data still to come
We can be confident our drug works because in a third of the patients “The Responder group” it showed a 70% improvement. It was a statistically significant p value and those patients were receiving SOC just like all Sprinter patients.
So we have nothing to fear from SOC. it’s all about patient numbers on the trial.
Once we’re in a trial, with all the above and progressing, the share price will move positively.
Patience is all you need
Patience and patients.
Remember when it comes to how long a trial takes and I’m sure some people will be emphasising a year plus. There’s such a thing as interim analysis and these trials kick you off without a second blink if your drug is a dud. So if we’re on a PT and haven’t been kicked off next summer then as the BOD said at the AGM. They will be in a completely different place to where they find themselves now and so will the share price
IMHO... The most important short term game-changer could be our
Long Covid results..... Every newspaper today is reporting huge spikes
in cases.... Moreover, hospital admissions... So at the height of Summer
this will send shock waves through those planning for this Winter...
Personally I think there are many potential options for SNG001 to
be playing a major role in treating Covid before next Summer!
Our safety record has never been in question, from the hints RM
gave about a Platform trial, I think we have pretty much been accepted,
if there is a crisis this winter ( or even before at this rate) things
could escalate for SNG001 very quickly....This was acknowledged at
the AGM...ATB!
Hi Jint
Thanks for taking the time to reply and your insight. I think RM and the team are ambitious but from interviews I've seen they all seem polite, understated and very British making it hard to determine their drive and energy.
Hopefully there are still exciting times ahead for Synairgen.
ATB
SBT
SBT..
The Board will have seen their personal fortunes devasted by the SPRINTER results..
They all have a significant shareholding here.... So I imagine they are as keen as us
to see a commercial endpoint here...!