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This could be a catalyst if reports of 150bn valuation are true
Connected link:
https://www.ft.com/content/826fb9bb-b27f-4c68-ad4b-a54ad74713c9
Good morning fellow SMT investors
Here is a positive article on Northvolt and an exciting breakthrough in battery technology!
https://www.ft.com/content/826fb9bb-b27f-4c68-ad4b-
a54ad74713c9.
Talking of luck I recall a comment from someone in Hargreaves Lansdown to the effect that some of their most successful investors were found to have dormant accounts where people had either forgotten about their portfolios for years or even died. The ultimate buy and forget strategy.
I am also massively cynical as to the investments media. There's a lot of money made for financial institutions in encouraging buy/sell mentality simply on the basis of trading costs.
Bearing that in mind is helpful as my experience has been that it is rarely panic stations just because the headlines state so.
There is usually a rebound as the threshold of "looks cheap" is crossed and the sharks move in. As stated... Research well. Buy well. Hold.
I've mentioned luck, but don't wish to mislead.
Buying well is the key, but then "luck" dictates the ride.
The example of PCT outperforming SMT is an example here.
Despite "luck" (as in crystal balls) being a factor, buying intelligently and well (plus matching your investments to timeframes in which they might seem more likely to provide decent returns) shapes your chances of ultimately succeeding.
That's how it's turned out for me anyway.
I don't necessarily disagree with selling if a stock or interest is underperforming, Andy, but I always try to quantify the reasons.
I sold no SMT during the fall from Nov 21 because I could see no reason to do so. I knew the economic reasons why it was falling out of favour and considered it unbelievably cheap as it was shunned and shunned.
Had I had the old crystal ball I'd have sold the lot at £16 and held cash until it hit £6.40, then reinvested the lot.
Instead I kept to my old and trusted tactic of doing nothing as there is absolutely no way you can know What is going to happen.
I find it incredible that SMT fell so far, but believe that it will reciprocate with a similarly impressive recovery.
9 times out of 10 when I have sold something that I believe to be inherently good I have regretted it. Catching knives can lose you fingers.
When the flock rushes for the door the best thing to do is sit on your hands.
Andy, it's all luck... Do you know I flogged loads of PCT to buy more SMT because it was performing so well pre Nov 21? There was no great thought behind it but I don't regret it as a bad decision, because it just wasn't. I had no idea PCT would outperform SMT, but I really do believe that SMT could well start to outperform PCT now.
I consider them both future winners, however.
You take your losses and you take your gains, but as long as you are up beyond the decay of cumulative inflation over the years you've done well.
I view it as a long old game in which you buy well and ignore the panic.
It's done well for me cummulatively despite some hideous nose dives (which I have philosophically tried to ignore).
@AndyEss..hindsight makes investing decisions so easy…unfortunately the great majority of us don’t have foresight. Luck and hope don’t make for great investing strategies. Personally prefer mass of money in broad indexes and a smaller percentage in riskier efforts: 15% each in L.SMT & EQQ (rest VUAG & global all cap)
Andy, are you saying PCT is worth 6x now what it was in November 2021?
Andy, all you're doing there is crystallizing a loss and there are no guarantees that your 'pack leader' is going to continue to outperform. Chasing winners can be difficult.
On the topic of taking profit, I agree with Walp ... if I'd had £1million invested in SMT [dream on] back in Nov 21, and had sold to buy another tech IT, Polar Capital Technology, I'd now be 13 times better off, with a holding of ... almost £6million, rather than £446k. No wonder they say timing is everything!
But as a newbie, I still don't get the logic that says don't sell when the value of your stock is underperforming - if it is so far behind the pack, then doesn't logic say the sooner you switch to a pack leader, the better ? Words of wisdom more than welcome :)
I hope I'm wrong, but my guess is it will be dragged back below the 700 mark..
MrAmericano - no-one knows the answer to your question. So even if there's consensus, it remains a total guess.
I suggest you ask Misty instead. Dogs are pretty canny.
Long term price will be well in excess of £7 imho.
I consider any drop in to the 6.50-6.80 range a buying opportunity.
Good morning fellow investors
I have a quick question...does anyone think that this share price will hold above 700? For me personally it's a positive psychological bench mark (being as I average around 750), and I would like it to build on momentum. Falling below 700 is a bit meh for me and I would like to see SMT staying above 700 now.
I am being nieve? Probably so or over-optimistic maybe.
Have a good weekend everyone from me and Misty!
Apologies. As always on here I either lose a comment completely down to pressing a back button (or similar)or end up posting too early, but I think my last post makes sense.. Wish there was an app for this... Maybe there is???
Anyway. Hope this is generally accessible:
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/fund-spotlight-scottish-mortgage-investment-trust-ii529881#:~:text=Scottish%20Mortgage%20biases%20strongly%20towards,on%20the%20market%20discount%20rate.
cp. agreed. i made the mistake of not selling at least some at smts height nov 21 that dictated that i had to continue working rather than drawer down on losing stocks.
i made the decision based upon the main causation for losses was inflation and that inflation cannot remain at high levels forever.
its a very loose belief, but if i was levered into making a valuation of smt in 3 years time, i wouldn't put £11 out of the window.. i can't quantify that really, but it's a very real possibility for me as inflation tames.
none of this is inevitable of course and **** happens.
smt is as discussed for the long term amd i started holding shares (still unsold) at least 35 years ago. despite the massive fall from grace holding over this length of period i'm never likely to be in a median state of regret... despite the recent losses i'm up above year after year of inflation big time. i guess that speaks volumes about the attitude to investment in smt. buying in in the many months up to nov 21 (or even thereafter) being massively unfortunate, i know. i've bought further at a loss as no one knew when it would stop falling. as i have said a great many times (and thankfully been proven correct on it... a lot of luck i know.. £6.40 has (so far) appeared to be the very bottom based upon abject negativity and hyperinflatiin.
not sure everyone will be able to access it, but here is ii's current thoughts on smt.
Do what's right for you Captain and don't be swayed either way by what you read here as everyone has their own opinion. For what it's worth, unless I was forced to sell for financial reasons, I wouldn't be doing so just now. However, if my risk tolerance had suddenly dropped and the thought of further volatility was affecting me, I'd be off like a shot. Each to their own and good luck whatever you decide.
I agree that this is a poor time to sell when gains are finally coming
I have decided that I am going to stick to the long term hold for now. Next time I am sat on a fat profit I think I will sell up...
Generally agreed with the 50/50 strategy as discussed if CP finds it an absolute no no to hang on given individual perspective and circumstances.
Having said that I firmly believe paradoxically the current point (or even at £8) being absolutely the worst probable time to sell. Of course, no one can say anything with certainty, and if certainty is necessary to ones strategy then certainty it should be..
If we can accept that the current leaps we are seeing (and far more positive opinion of the IT) is a long fully expected & natural consequence of world inflation getting under control, then the accumulating weight of that logic strongly dictates holding in my mind, but then that's my perspective.
I guess if CP has stated the need to cease any kind of shares based investing then that is his/her decision alone and I respect that.
I would however be happier to feel that all members discussing SMT here end up as rosy as possible. The major likelihood in my mind to SMTs future is positivity.
Thefrogster - spot on! But maybe rather than sticking it in a bank, stick it in whichever SAFE savings vehicle offers the best interest at the time. Sometimes credit unions & building societies offer more than the banks and they give you exactly the same degree of protection up to £85,000.
The 50:50 option is also a sensible way to hedge your bets, assuming you know you won't need access to ALL the capital in a hurry.
I'd also mention money market funds as a great way to make roughly 5% returns right now (Lyxor CSH2). (Until rates go down). But there's no real risk there and it can't 'go down', you just get less return if rates begin to come down.
Now is not the time to sell IMO, trust in SMT they have a great team that invests in disruption which hasn't been the place to be for the last couple of years.
If you can, turn everything off and come back again in 2 years then make decisions then. You are feeling retail capitulation which is natural after we have been through a tough period and things are still uncertain.
GL with whatever you decide, it will be right for you.