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Walp - I think we’re all in danger of going round in circles here.
When SMT was flying 3 years ago, no-one complained. Now it isn’t, the detractors are suddenly out in force.
I guess it’s all down to human nature, when you invested & your average buying price.
As meconopsis pointed out, Baillie Gifford DOES specify the type of investment SMT represents and the sort of people it might be suitable for. It seems to me that many of those who say they’ve recently sold out (or intend to) should never really have bought SMT in the first place.
Nobody knows how it’ll fare in future and the arguments on both sides are already well versed. Investors who might need their money back within the next year or two and are worried SMT could drop further should probably cut their losses and concentrate on lower risk holdings in future. Those who are happy with the risks and more flexible in terms of encashment might want to hang on.
Apologies Tambo12. I didn't answer all your questions. As stated before I viewed (and it's a personal view) £6.50 as the absolute pits SP for SMT. I'm judging that only on it being the absolute lowest reached point over the last 2 years. You then look at the discount to nav at circa 20% for both those periods.
As stated, I believe the "extra risk" associated with unlisted acquisitions (which have created a lot of the fear surrounding SMT) to be offset against at least one of two potentially going big before anyone else gets wise and the SP rockets. This is actually SMTs mo and I'm sticking with that. Sure it's made it riskier than it once was at 30%, but no pain no gain & it's relative.
Definitely worthwhile in my mind to invest money you could potentially lose, although I personally believe the "risk" label over applied.
Even the 30% unlisted are all companies carefully chosen for their durability and potential, all with big collateral & financial parachutes...
Given that I did buy more at around £6.60, but not as much as I would have liked. At the current SP I'll sit and wait, although had I a bunch of extra cash I'd consider right now even at £7.50.
I do feel a little perplexed as goes the differing opinions of it on this forum as all I see are the obvious factors that are depressing it right now.
If it rains it's because of the weather, but there seems to be a lot of nit picking around SMT the minute it takes a plunge... PCT, for example, is an eminently respected and managed fund that has performed worse since the new year (as have many others for the same geo political and inflationary fear reasons), but somehow bad times for SMT always boil down to mismanagement? I'm not buying that but each to their own.
Let's all read from the Key Information Document made available to when you invested and which your online investment platform will have asked you to confirm that you read....
(Capitalisation my own...)
"The Company is suitable for all investors seeking a fund that aims to deliver total returns, predominantly driven by capital growth, OVER A LONG-TERM INVESTMENT HORIZON. The investor should be PREPARED TO BEAR LOSSES. The Company is aimed at mass market distribution. The Company may NOT SUITABLE FOR INVESTORS WHO ARE CONCERNED ABOUT SHORT-TERM VOLATILITY and performance, who are seeking a regular source of income or WHO MAY BE INVESTING FOR LESS THAN 5 YEARS."
Hi Tambo12. I actually like the degree of unlisted risk that seems to worry so many. As goes where I see it in 2025, I would simply say that on the balance of probability and given more settled conditions (stable interest rates for a starter) I would like to think of a steady incline in value (where exactly I'm not sure).
The investments within the portfolio are certainly not fud ones and investment in technology eventually turns out saleable ideas and goods. Any threat of high interest obviously scares off the short termers invested in it as a great proportion of investors want returns stat.
We aren't about to stop coming up with ideas both as new ones or solutions to problems.
I agree times are no longer premium for these kinds of investments, but do believe they will continue to make money.
Nothing has changed in my mind to suggest otherwise but I always boil stuff down to simplistic presiding factors.
I wouldn't have money in SMT I couldn't afford to lose, but then that's been my lifelong investment mantra.
Of course I can never say I won't press the eject button, but nothing that has happened in the last 30 years has encouraged me to do so with SMT. Sure, I wish I'd pulled at least half around Nov 21, but didn't have the crystal ball so stuck to my guns. I'd be disappointed if staying invested still didn't leave me miles above my initial investments even at the low point of 6.50.
It became so unrealistically frothy before Nov 21 (the SP) that in all consideration my losses were not realistically as great anyway.
That's my take and I'm sticking.
Just noted the expected upturn. Let's hope fears settle more. They always do. At some point.
Walp.
What do you like about SMT? What would compel you to add more at these levels?
If not, why not?
We've been on a downward trend since Nov 2021. But that applies to a lot of NASDAQ stocks excluding the Magnificent 7.
What's you expectation at the end of 2025 given a near 5 year horizon? Where do you feel the SP will be (not just the NAV) then, to prove your point that SMT is no exception?
Relative to 5 years ago, this trust SP is up 50%.
As above, meant to say (re spooky) that SMT isn't a short term gain type of investment. We all know this (and I do understand that loads of people have lost buckets getting in fairly recently), but it does take some bravado and a certain slant towards the attitude of sitting on hands.
If it's not for you then it's not for you.
Mr Americano. It's not about the NASDAQ but the NASDAQ is an indisputable marker of confidence.
Have a little peak at the performance of other well reputed trusts such as pct and att over the last month. Can you discern any great difference?
You're correct about the world situation as goes geo politics and these ever increasing events will lead to a dampness in investment. If this is a worry then I'd suggest not investing in concerns likely to be effected greatly by this. I would also strongly advise anyone investing in SMT for a short period only to withdraw when things get spooky (easy as it is for me to say that given how SMT has rewarded me over the years).. Don't get me wrong, I've lost in the past but never bemoaned it as that's the way the cookie crumbles.
We still have some way to go down before a return to the low of 6.5.
I'd say come back and comment in a couple of years.
SMT has suffered volatility over the past 2 years odd now, but to single them out after 1 week of activity (especially given they have performed no worse than well respected other funds skirting similar territory) seems slightly harsh.
Funny how opinions swing in so little time here.
It's investing. There is no crystal ball and what seems catastrophic one week can turn completely the next.
Ps. I have no overlying concerns as to the management of SMT. Others may well do so. If so buy out..
All really excellent points on here...I don't want to 'hate' on SMT...but I do believe that the fund managers have slightly 'lost the plot'...well I thought that after the last seminar. I don't think it's the fact that the Nasdaq is down again, I just think it's the volatility of SMT that stings hard. When I look back over the posts here, emotions were positive over the santa-rally, and I really questioned my sanity at selling out and breaking -even (I lost about £70ish), but now I can see exactly why I pulled the trigger and sold out....for my own sanity. There's a multitude of better growth funds out there with less stress. At least ATT was up about 43%, in 1 year by Christmas. SMT was up about 17% on the year come Christmas? I think those whom invested 30 years ago did the correct thing and rode the Tesla etc wave and well done. But buying SMT on the basis of past performance is now not a good strategy, (never was) and the Motley Fools of the world should stop plugging it. 2020-21 boom era has gone and won't be returning anytime soon given the precarious Geo-Politics of the world. It potentially looks like there's going to be yet another horrendous conflict in the Middle East.
Tambo12, I'd say that's the kind of belief behind every fund manager. Funny how on here the critique only comes when the dog is down.
It's called investing.
My oerspective is my own.
I've invested in this trust for the last 30 years or so and have done extremely well.. that's through the 2000 crash and other failures in fortune also.
I know (stuck record returns) that the latest falls have again been effected by interest rate renewed fears, colder feet re Gaza, Ukraine and other issues that (of course) have a downward effect on generalized sentiment towards a great many tech connected concerns.. Looking right now (today) pct are down 1.65% whilst SMT are 1.51%. The Nasdaq has dropped massively over it's gains since the new year because of these fears which tells us what?
It tells us the swathe of tech investment industry and loosely related same is in disfavour.
Singling out SMT is silly.
It's endemic.
Walp....One thing SMT reminds me of is Cathie Wood and her ARK funds.
As if they believe everything they touch will turn to gold.
Take a look at Global Discovery (Another BG fund). I sold out of that at 50% loss last month, due to the fact I believe they're going to wind up the fund. The guys running that fund are really clueless. Genuinely believe they're out of ideas and they're going to throw in the towel and admit they don't know how to execute that fund.
LLL - It is an about turn, but more to do with acknowledging my rotten luck and living within my means......namely dividend shares. Bagging a healthy yield is no bad thing. Currently, if I bank the divi, I'll make my money back on the original investment in 10 years. The dividend also rises 1p per year.
I'm with MrAmericano on this partly, in that the volatility is quite stark and worse still, it skews to the downside namely it wants to trade at a discount to NAV.
My personal opinion is BG should have a responsibility to temper any cowboy like manoeuvres to wrong foot the market and claim to know where the future lies. The result is where we have been for the last 12months. When the fund size is nearly $13bn, BG should demonstrate fiscal discipline with investor money to ensure a safety net. Slater and his sidekick state " investing in the agents of change trumps reacting to short-term headwinds." But they invest early in non-profitable companies burning through cash. They don't question cash burn and where are they going to get their funding from to support their quest. The portfolio realignment you see at present is far too late. Top 5 are cash generating. We knew early last year the FED was going to raise rates (too late BTW). BG would have cleaned up had they shifted to boring stocks such as MSFT, APPL, GOOG. Even in the pharma space, they should have had a stake in LLY, even if they started small. Buying more of MRNA early 2023 was nuts. COVID revs are what drove the stock, but when we emerged from the pandemic and people had their government funded 2 shots, where was the sustained revenues? People don't want to pay $100 for a vaccine unless death is guaranteed. People wing it just like we do with the annual flu vaccine. MRNA is a 2025 and beyond story. Yet Slater and Lawrence think they know otherwise. We kinda saw this at the November 2023 fireside chat. They looked uncomfortable.
Looking at the holdings, I wonder if there's going to be another push to purge Chinese holdings.
(Just seen MRNA is only 4.4% of their portfolio. Did they sell or buy more of other's?)
Timing is everything....you're right. Funny thing is I broke my mantra and jumped in too quickly without doing DD on Slater and Lawrence. I should have booked a small loss in Feb 23 rather than riding out the year. I would have bagged a 9% dividend in the meantime. I'm waiting for 810p before I exit. Unless they boot Slater and his buddy out and refresh with guys who remember the legacy of this IT and the image is has to maintain.
CaptainPicard - £12 is half way between £8 and £16. No science.
Seems everyone is fixated on SMT and not everything else going on and other similar concerns. Look at ATT, PCT and a bunch of others. Same if not worse.
Again (and I repeat) it's a sentiment reflection based on current fears and worries based upon where we are now.
I'm not sure SMT is for a great many investors contributing here, tbh :(
LLL condescending much?
Yes ok I know it has a yield but it's so insignificant it is not worth bothering with.
Mr LLL
This is where I disagree with you...I don't think that it is clear just how volatile it is....SMT is continuously plugged by financial media outlets like Motley Fool et al..how is one meant to compound in a company like this? I nearly bought back in and I had, then I would already be 6 percent down this week... thankfully I took advice from this board and didn't. I however bought some shares in SMGB which is a pure semi-conductor ETF. I fully expect the volatility with this as it classifies the risk as 7...in short I know the companies that I am buying into, I know that cycling nature of the sector etc...I am glad that I sold SMT when I just about broke even and put the cash to better use. But as you say, it all depends on when you buy, how long the time horizon is etc etc. God's luck to you all anyway.
P.s I have lost my reading glasses!
MrAmericano - any private investor doing even the most basic research already knows SMT is high risk & volatile.
And if you don't research the basics, you've really only got yourself to blame.
Tom78 - Scottish Mortgage DOES have a yield. As you'd expect with any investment targeting long term growth, it's far smaller than MNG's at around 0.6%. But a yield nonetheless.
Maybe Baillie Gifford should put a risk to health arning on this Trust before buying.."Warning , this Investment Trust is turned up to 11,"....it's very volatile!
Not mad but why 12 and not 10 or 14?
Yep
I hold both MNG and SMT. MNG has been wonderful and SMT has been a disaster, but it is all about timing and luck to some extent. At least with MNG you get a decent yield even if the shares have gone down a bit and you can sit tight. With SMT there is no yield so your money is dead and can only hope for (or pray) for a big rise in share price or sell out.
Tambo210 - switching from SMT to LGEN/MNG would certainly be a radical move. Chalk & cheese springs to mind!
I could understand buying LGEN/MNG to help diversify a portfolio which already had SMT in it. But a full blown u-turn from one to t'other sounds like you might just be chasing your tail somewhat?
Over the past 5 years, unless you were lucky enough to time your sales & purchases almost perfectly, it's unlikely you'll have noticed a HUGE improvement in LGEN/MNG's share price. Both tend to be fairly range bound. As you say, their main attraction is the high yield. Though of course this is always liable to change (for better or worse).
Good day
Watching this sudden drop in SP closely
Best wishes
Mr A
Yeah, I was kinda wishing I'd set a stop loss at £8 to sell 1/3 of my holding to rebuy lower, but hindsight and all that. Happy to just hold through the volatility and not try to time the market.
1200 is my next target, timescale depends on outside forces, but it will get there and beyond, I'm glad to be a holder right now.
I missed my chance to sell at 810p and switch into LGEN/MNG.....Latter is boring, but the divi is nice dependable income.
Am I mad in thinking SMT.L can reach 1200p at some point this year as chatter of rate cuts gets ever louder towards the end of 2024? I know that's 50% gain from here, but we all gotta have some dreams.!
The NAV would have to rise too which might be a stretch.