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Apologies - 771p back in profit- £441 up. I might have 2 pints tomorrow night!
776p, back in profit.
I might have a pint tomorrow night...
Yes Tambo I am also just on the cusp of break even at £8. I said before I would sell up at this point and say goodbye to this and share investing as it is my last share investment left. I will certainly sell half and perhaps take a punt on the other half now there is looking to be a potential upside....
I just see it as a natural occurrence. Inflation taming. Profitability window closer. Both short and long term speculators seeing a return to favourable conditions. A sustained cessation of volatility. Sentiment returning to that of a profitable window. This was always by far most likely to happen as every strain of world economy and every government wants a low inflation society. Add that to the fact that man will never stop wanting (and paying well for) new ideas and solutions.
Of course we could go back with a new world issue or catastrophe (economic or political, and we live in a crowded world now where the odds of this are increasing all the time), but we will in time again move forward.
Simplistic, but as ever this stuck record stands by it.
Might actually breakeven soon (£8)
So, with the dovish FED stance and the market pricing in rate cuts in mid-late 2024, it's risk on and we've got our mini rally. I do wonder however, if reality come crashing in come Jan / Feb and everything has a rough few months. In any case, the over trajectory is like up for 2024. Glad I piled into SMT over the past year. My holding is only 5k but I'm fine with that.
Could just be the santa rally, but definitely a more concerted uptrend for SMT of late.
Good afternoon all
I was just reading some random article regarding Space X and it's valuation, which is apparently $195 Billion Dollars or $95 a share.
Worth noting SMT is back on the no. 1 spot in Interactive Investors' most bought trusts. I think positive sentiment is building again.
@Ubik_Fresh...The whole Montana thing reeks of protectionism. What happened to the land of the free and the brave?
Nimrod - how you judge SMT's performance largely depends on how long you've held it. 10 years and you're laughing. 3 or less and you're not.
I don't think you'll find the majoriity of regular posters on this board relentlessly pump the fund.
As for fat fees, if you think SMT's are bad, take a look at most other funds & ITs. SMT's are far lower than average.
Pumped relentlessly by some, but a poor performer whilst sellers of the product still enjoy their fat fees come rain or shine
Montana was set to become the first state in the nation to ban TikTok, which is owned by the Chinese tech giant ByteDance (BDNCE), but it looks like the move is running into familiar roadblocks. Federal Judge Donald Molloy has blocked the bill set to go into effect on Jan. 1, 2024, saying the measure "violates the Constitution in more ways than one" and "oversteps state power." While individual users would not have been punished, the law could have imposed fines of $10,000 on any "entity" - namely the app stores of Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL), or TikTok itself - each time someone was "offered the ability" to access or download the TikTok app.
Response from Montana: "The judge indicated several times that the analysis could change as the case proceeds and the State has the opportunity to present a full factual record. We look forward to presenting the complete legal argument to defend the law that protects Montanans from the Chinese Communist Party obtaining and using their data."
Response from TikTok: "We are pleased the judge rejected this unconstitutional law and hundreds of thousands of Montanans can continue to express themselves, earn a living, and find community on TikTok."
Mr Frogster
Yes it is, and a great series at that matter! Well worth watching..
And this is why we all play the great investment game trying to solve the "what if?" riddle ... and why we all take it very personally especially when you have a slug of your long term wealth on the table.
I have adopted a bar bell approach to my own investment strategy with SMT being one of my long term holdings on the higher end of my portfolio, and expect to add small increments on an ongoing basis
I thought The Mandalorian was a Star Wars film :)
Mr Lord Loads of Lolly
Some really good points here...
My mistake was lump-summing a rather tidy proportion of cash into the Trust whence on a downward trend. What I should have done is checked in my risk tolerance and dollar-cost averaged into SMT. Say 5-10 %. I have read many a news article over the past 12 months saying 'this is the way'...(Mandalorian)..
So I am certainly not giving up on investment trusts, but rather I may look to re-enter on a monthly basis where I can be more tolerant and risk resilient. I am not really sure about other ITs..but having listened to 'Many Happy Returns' pod-cast, which featured SMT, this one seems to be the tightest-run ship in the IT ocean.
To re-quote the Mandalorian...
'This is the way'....(Dollar-cost averaging)..
I certainly can't time the market any better than a 'blind dart throwing monkey' (to quote Mr Buffet sir).
My thoughts exactly LLOL - just look at the rewards from Tesla and Amazon, for example. As you say, this fund is all about long term early stage investment and, personally, I don't see that level ever changing.
Icarus321 - thanks; certainly some interesting ideas there.
Lowering the private % could only really be a longer term aim I guess, as & when their existing private holdings floated, with the proceeds then being reinvested into public companies.
SMT has gained access to the likes of Space X largely through its reputation as an early stage, supportive & exceptionally long term investor.
So my concern would be that any dramatic change of tack could lose them this reputation & leverage. It might also alienate a fair proportion of SMT’s existing investors who bought in on a long term view, precisely BECAUSE the fund’s gone big on speculative but potentially highly lucrative unlisted holdings.
Sure, that strategy’s been severely tested over the past few years. But less so if you look over longer timeframes (though admittedly, as you say, private holdings were less significant the further back you go).
Who knows, in another 4 or 5 years, 30% unlisteds could look like the dumbest move ever, with us all left scratching our heads as to how we could possibly ever have bought into it.
On the other hand it could, by then, also resemble an inspired bit of investment foresight, from which we’re once again reaping huge rewards….
A couple of options, e.g. perhaps:
Lower the percentage of private v public holdings from say 30% to 20% or even 10-15%, which was the limit set when they first sought mandate permission to move beyond publicly traded stocks, selling a portion of these stocks should then realise a healthy cash profit and crystallise some of the capital gain?
Lay out a multi-year roadmap of expected listings from private to public so that there is a forward view of upcoming liquidity events and a structured way to validate private valuations over time?
Aggregate the private funds held in SMT into a separate listed entity (e.g. like the Schiehallion Fund) that SMT could retain a stake in and through that although tighter valuation and scrutiny from the market - perhaps with a focus in later stage private companies like Space X?
Icarus321 - not quite sure what you’re proposing in terms of the unlisted holdings, given you think monthly/quarterly internal valuations are inadequate?
I agree that the current discount to NAV (whilst narrowing) is - at least in part - caused by uncertainty over the unlisteds.
But sentiment can change quickly. Or not!
What joins us all together in this forum (whenever we started out SMT journey) is its our hope for a higher share price.
The real question I have is what will actually cause a turnaround in the poor 1, 3 and 5 year performances of SMT against benchmark. I know it’s a 10 year buy and hold but the amazing runs in AMZN and TSLA etc. were all a good few years ago.
For me, the SMT share price is less about the impact of interest rates and inflation, and the re-rating these macro factors have had on portfolio share prices. That’s easy to quantify and it’s seen in the NAV. All things being equal, the SMT share price should be c. £8.30.
Rather, my view is that the principal element that causes the SMT share price to languish is the uncertainty around the valuation of the private companies that make up of c.30% of the portfolio - I would argue that this is the primary reason why the average discount of SMT relative to its NAV has averaged nearly -17% over the last 12 months.
So getting any new piece of point data (like e.g. when Space X might sell some shares) is helpful but it simply does not provide enough sunshine to value a key part of the overall portfolio. Internal valuations done monthly or quarterly aren’t enough (in my opinion) to break through the ceiling on the share price. For the Portfolio Managers to earn their fees, they should be addressing this aspect fully.
Until these valuation elements are dealt with in a more structured way I believe the NAV discount will persist for many more years (or unless interest rates go back to near 0%).
MrAmericano - as Walp said, never any point in investing if it keeps you awake at night.
I wouldn't ignore investment trusts altogether though, as they can be a reasonably cost-effective option. And unlike OEICS, you can at least buy & sell at a known price.
Index trackers can also be low cost of course. And indeed, they always should be. Otherwise, even if they accurately track an index, they're always going to underperform it once the fees are factored in. Vanguard have a good reputation here. As I believe Fidelity do for their S&P 500 tracker. But I'm no expert in this area, so DYOR.
Dear Mr Walp
Thank you for showing understanding....it was indeed causing me a few restless evenings...I didn't fully understand what was underneath the SMT bonnet or how ITs work. It's been a learning curve!
Mr Lord Loads of Lolly
Thank you, apology most welcomed...I take on board what you have said and I thank you all for the advice. Let's just say that despite all, I hope that SMT works out for you all, honestly. I only wish for success for all investors, both big and small because it does take a toll on ones emotional well-being, both ups and downs.
And as I previously said, I may start dollar-cost averaging into SMT, but a small position, say 5%. That will do both me and Misty fine!