London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
LLL . Absolute agreement to your final point. Think and buy well. Hold.
Buying and selling has costs attached to it and most often (in my experience) ends up with me kicking my own butt. It is after all knife catching and can be a bit disappointing when the purchased element underperforms the sold out one.
Imho (based upon my assessment of a most likely future), this will be Mr Americano's sum experience over the next 12 months and beyond as goes his decision, but as stated life is not about making money but being happy.
If holding SMT causes anyone sleepless nights I'd have no hesitation advising them to sell up asap.
I'm very much an each to their own type of person and do feel that Mr Americano's 30% might seem too much for a great deal of people. Having said that we're 10% "practically guaranteed" in the game of investment then I feel leant towards saying that interest paying savings accounts would likely become a dinosaur of the past. Who would bother with them given such a gold plated return?
If Mr Americano's decision allows him better sleep at night then so be it. If it were me I would have perhaps balanced the decision at maybe a retain half approach. I currently hold 25% of my portfolio in SMT and would be loathe at this point to sell any. I did buy into Fundsmith by selling some PCT which I felt too entrenched solely in companies constantly targeted as having unfair monopolies plus too exposed to China (possible overeaction on my part), but am glad I did so as I feel it has leant a greater safety to my portfolio by doing so.
As inflation is dropping I'm just heading into the black as goes that investment (thanks for the advice from all here on that one).
As for SMT, my somewhat conservative belief is that it will likely go some way beyond 10% from today to 30th November 2024 (predicted therefore at around £8 minimum), but who knows to what extent the next big world event will scupper anyone's predictions?
I guess we will see, but everyone is going to have their individual strategies and perception of risk and so each to their own.
MrAmericano - I apologise if I got this wrong. It just looked totally at odds to me with all your previous posts & your reasoning.
But I appreciate different people have different objectives. And these can change over time - or following new advice received from others). Indeed, I've often said as much here.
Anyhow, good luck wherever you decide to park your cash. Just try not to move it around too often would be my main advice. Very often this just leads to chasing your tail & benefits no-one in the long term (except brokers/the government, who love all that extra commission/stamp duty!)
Quote "I decided that I would put it to work in theS&P500, where you are practically guaranteed a long-term CAGR average of 10%." Be careful on this one. I am old enough to remember someone in the late 80's saying that the Nikkei has just hit 40k and look where that went. There is also an interesting article in the Economist about the S&P493 which is the 500 minus the magnificent 7 and it shows a rather pedestrian performance of the rest of the US economy. I was pushing my 500 allocation up until I read this and realised that it's basically a bet on only 7 companies, most of which weren't around (or not doing too well) 20 years ago.
Mr Lord Loads of Lolly
There's no 'hmmmmm' to it sir..
Just a simple, unemotional decision.
I am very sorry that you think there is 'more than meets the eye' at play. That's just plainly not true. And frankly quite offensive that you suspect foul-play. Just accept,.that some investors have different objectives to your own.
Captlard
Hi Mr Captlard
It was a more sensible decision...thinking with my head rather than my heart, and taking some free advice off a family IFA.
If SMT drops below 7.00, I may buy some shares, but I bought in at around 7.80 and managed to average down to 7.40...I sold at 7.22...
Anyway, I feel that I can sleep better at night now.
@MrAmericano…30% was a significant amount and your decision seems pretty sensible to me. Good luck!
Happy with my 15% (currently < 2% loss). Will not be buying more.
MrAmericano - Hmmmm.
Lord Loads of Lolly
I simply changed my mind. My investing timeline is 20 years+, but with 30% of my portfolio in a fund that just isn't working my money, and yet to break even, I decided that I would put it to work in theS&p 500, where you are practically guaranteed a long-term CAGR average of 10%. Let's just say I took some advice. I think that SMT is a good 'poker-play' and you need to have a healthy risk tolerance to play the game. But as I said, I really don't rate the fund managers, I don't have faith in them. Which is why I am going all-in on a cheap index fund. I may decide to dollar-cost average into SMT...I don't know. But as I clearly said in a previous post, I did not understand what I was buying into with SMT. I did not understand Price-Nav, I also didn't understand the weighting of the private companies, and the impact on the sentiment. I just believe that my money will go to work harder in an index fund for now. Maybe a percentage in the NASDAQ 100 too. For me personally, this adds-up as a better long-term bet.
MrAmericano - me again! You do realise you posted the following on 24 October 2023:
"My personal investing time horizon is at least 20 years. SMT is a down-on-its luck investment trust, with some very good holdings, and with it's current negative nav, a good buying opportunity IF you want to take some risk, AND have a suitable long term time line, OR maybe want to dollar-cost average down. I share a common interest as a fellow investor, and SMT could be a potentially long term lucrative investment."
It sounds like you first bought into SMT fairly recently, as you mentioned an average buy price of 740p. Which doesn't really chime with your time horizon of at least 20 years. Obviously, investors change their minds sometimes and it can be the right move. But trawling through your past posts, there's something not quite right here IMHO.
MrAmericano - fair enough. Hope you listened to Misty before making the move though!
Hello Fellow Investors
How is everyone keeping? I decided to sort my portfolio out last week and sold all my SMT shares for a small loss that I can live with. I got disillusioned after the SMT investment seminar, especially with LB....I really don't think that he has a clue! I have popped my proceeds into my S&P 500 fund, where it will hopefully work -churn-compound over time. I am only a small-time investor who needs his cash to compound for retirement. Below £7.00 I may decide to buy a chunk for a swing trade, I don't know, but honestly I have lost faith in the managers. That's my story anyway. I really hope that you are all successful with SMT in the future and good luck to you all.
When it comes to investing I just use common sense and probabilities, there's lots of information out there thats easily accessible with the internet. We all know that rising inflation and rising interest rates are bad for growth stocks, looking at the news it appears that inflation is falling, interest rates will probably also start falling, probably sometime next year, this will be a positive thing for growth stocks. For SMT some IPO's of the private equity would be good, these have been mentioned in recent news, and may start to happen next year. Its hard to buy stocks when they are in the doldrums, it seems easier when the share price is in an uptrend and everyone is singing its praises, both ways work. If you buy now you may have to wait, but you are nearer to the bottom, or you can wait for a good uptrend and join in then, people make money both ways.
Certainly trust no newspaper, or any of the investment media in my mind. I'd say the most obvious markers are written big on the wall, but sentiment is still muted. I'd just look at what we know to be going on with this type of investment at the moment and the likelihood of travel direction. You then have to add in your assessment of risk. I'd never thought of SMT as a particularly risky investment despite it's volatility (which makes it a long termer unless you feel convinced it's at its low). Plenty of burned fingers for those who thought this, so caution is required.
I'd buy more if I had the cash spare, but that's me and if I then lost money in the immediate term I'd look back on my 30 years of investing, shrug my shoulders and wait for the upside.
That's how I've always done things but beyond thinking hard as to my purchases initially & spreading risk I've never actually developed a strategy beyond a few basics you could scribble on the back of an envelope :)
My rule of thumb has been 'buy below £7' recently. But each to their own.
@Stocksr you need to figure that out, based on your investment strategy (portfolio mix and time frames), risk tolerance etc.
HERE for long haul? THEN perhaps buying makes sense, though I wouldn’t trust anything a newspaper tells you lol.
Telegraph says buy, most of my purchasers around 10 t0 13, should I buy now or hold and wait?
This could be a catalyst if reports of 150bn valuation are true
Connected link:
https://www.ft.com/content/826fb9bb-b27f-4c68-ad4b-a54ad74713c9
Good morning fellow SMT investors
Here is a positive article on Northvolt and an exciting breakthrough in battery technology!
https://www.ft.com/content/826fb9bb-b27f-4c68-ad4b-
a54ad74713c9.
Talking of luck I recall a comment from someone in Hargreaves Lansdown to the effect that some of their most successful investors were found to have dormant accounts where people had either forgotten about their portfolios for years or even died. The ultimate buy and forget strategy.
I am also massively cynical as to the investments media. There's a lot of money made for financial institutions in encouraging buy/sell mentality simply on the basis of trading costs.
Bearing that in mind is helpful as my experience has been that it is rarely panic stations just because the headlines state so.
There is usually a rebound as the threshold of "looks cheap" is crossed and the sharks move in. As stated... Research well. Buy well. Hold.
I've mentioned luck, but don't wish to mislead.
Buying well is the key, but then "luck" dictates the ride.
The example of PCT outperforming SMT is an example here.
Despite "luck" (as in crystal balls) being a factor, buying intelligently and well (plus matching your investments to timeframes in which they might seem more likely to provide decent returns) shapes your chances of ultimately succeeding.
That's how it's turned out for me anyway.
I don't necessarily disagree with selling if a stock or interest is underperforming, Andy, but I always try to quantify the reasons.
I sold no SMT during the fall from Nov 21 because I could see no reason to do so. I knew the economic reasons why it was falling out of favour and considered it unbelievably cheap as it was shunned and shunned.
Had I had the old crystal ball I'd have sold the lot at £16 and held cash until it hit £6.40, then reinvested the lot.
Instead I kept to my old and trusted tactic of doing nothing as there is absolutely no way you can know What is going to happen.
I find it incredible that SMT fell so far, but believe that it will reciprocate with a similarly impressive recovery.
9 times out of 10 when I have sold something that I believe to be inherently good I have regretted it. Catching knives can lose you fingers.
When the flock rushes for the door the best thing to do is sit on your hands.
Andy, it's all luck... Do you know I flogged loads of PCT to buy more SMT because it was performing so well pre Nov 21? There was no great thought behind it but I don't regret it as a bad decision, because it just wasn't. I had no idea PCT would outperform SMT, but I really do believe that SMT could well start to outperform PCT now.
I consider them both future winners, however.
You take your losses and you take your gains, but as long as you are up beyond the decay of cumulative inflation over the years you've done well.
I view it as a long old game in which you buy well and ignore the panic.
It's done well for me cummulatively despite some hideous nose dives (which I have philosophically tried to ignore).