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@AndyEss..hindsight makes investing decisions so easy…unfortunately the great majority of us don’t have foresight. Luck and hope don’t make for great investing strategies. Personally prefer mass of money in broad indexes and a smaller percentage in riskier efforts: 15% each in L.SMT & EQQ (rest VUAG & global all cap)
Andy, are you saying PCT is worth 6x now what it was in November 2021?
Andy, all you're doing there is crystallizing a loss and there are no guarantees that your 'pack leader' is going to continue to outperform. Chasing winners can be difficult.
On the topic of taking profit, I agree with Walp ... if I'd had £1million invested in SMT [dream on] back in Nov 21, and had sold to buy another tech IT, Polar Capital Technology, I'd now be 13 times better off, with a holding of ... almost £6million, rather than £446k. No wonder they say timing is everything!
But as a newbie, I still don't get the logic that says don't sell when the value of your stock is underperforming - if it is so far behind the pack, then doesn't logic say the sooner you switch to a pack leader, the better ? Words of wisdom more than welcome :)
I hope I'm wrong, but my guess is it will be dragged back below the 700 mark..
MrAmericano - no-one knows the answer to your question. So even if there's consensus, it remains a total guess.
I suggest you ask Misty instead. Dogs are pretty canny.
Long term price will be well in excess of £7 imho.
I consider any drop in to the 6.50-6.80 range a buying opportunity.
Good morning fellow investors
I have a quick question...does anyone think that this share price will hold above 700? For me personally it's a positive psychological bench mark (being as I average around 750), and I would like it to build on momentum. Falling below 700 is a bit meh for me and I would like to see SMT staying above 700 now.
I am being nieve? Probably so or over-optimistic maybe.
Have a good weekend everyone from me and Misty!
Apologies. As always on here I either lose a comment completely down to pressing a back button (or similar)or end up posting too early, but I think my last post makes sense.. Wish there was an app for this... Maybe there is???
Anyway. Hope this is generally accessible:
https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/fund-spotlight-scottish-mortgage-investment-trust-ii529881#:~:text=Scottish%20Mortgage%20biases%20strongly%20towards,on%20the%20market%20discount%20rate.
cp. agreed. i made the mistake of not selling at least some at smts height nov 21 that dictated that i had to continue working rather than drawer down on losing stocks.
i made the decision based upon the main causation for losses was inflation and that inflation cannot remain at high levels forever.
its a very loose belief, but if i was levered into making a valuation of smt in 3 years time, i wouldn't put £11 out of the window.. i can't quantify that really, but it's a very real possibility for me as inflation tames.
none of this is inevitable of course and **** happens.
smt is as discussed for the long term amd i started holding shares (still unsold) at least 35 years ago. despite the massive fall from grace holding over this length of period i'm never likely to be in a median state of regret... despite the recent losses i'm up above year after year of inflation big time. i guess that speaks volumes about the attitude to investment in smt. buying in in the many months up to nov 21 (or even thereafter) being massively unfortunate, i know. i've bought further at a loss as no one knew when it would stop falling. as i have said a great many times (and thankfully been proven correct on it... a lot of luck i know.. £6.40 has (so far) appeared to be the very bottom based upon abject negativity and hyperinflatiin.
not sure everyone will be able to access it, but here is ii's current thoughts on smt.
Do what's right for you Captain and don't be swayed either way by what you read here as everyone has their own opinion. For what it's worth, unless I was forced to sell for financial reasons, I wouldn't be doing so just now. However, if my risk tolerance had suddenly dropped and the thought of further volatility was affecting me, I'd be off like a shot. Each to their own and good luck whatever you decide.
I agree that this is a poor time to sell when gains are finally coming
I have decided that I am going to stick to the long term hold for now. Next time I am sat on a fat profit I think I will sell up...
Generally agreed with the 50/50 strategy as discussed if CP finds it an absolute no no to hang on given individual perspective and circumstances.
Having said that I firmly believe paradoxically the current point (or even at £8) being absolutely the worst probable time to sell. Of course, no one can say anything with certainty, and if certainty is necessary to ones strategy then certainty it should be..
If we can accept that the current leaps we are seeing (and far more positive opinion of the IT) is a long fully expected & natural consequence of world inflation getting under control, then the accumulating weight of that logic strongly dictates holding in my mind, but then that's my perspective.
I guess if CP has stated the need to cease any kind of shares based investing then that is his/her decision alone and I respect that.
I would however be happier to feel that all members discussing SMT here end up as rosy as possible. The major likelihood in my mind to SMTs future is positivity.
Thefrogster - spot on! But maybe rather than sticking it in a bank, stick it in whichever SAFE savings vehicle offers the best interest at the time. Sometimes credit unions & building societies offer more than the banks and they give you exactly the same degree of protection up to £85,000.
The 50:50 option is also a sensible way to hedge your bets, assuming you know you won't need access to ALL the capital in a hurry.
I'd also mention money market funds as a great way to make roughly 5% returns right now (Lyxor CSH2). (Until rates go down). But there's no real risk there and it can't 'go down', you just get less return if rates begin to come down.
Now is not the time to sell IMO, trust in SMT they have a great team that invests in disruption which hasn't been the place to be for the last couple of years.
If you can, turn everything off and come back again in 2 years then make decisions then. You are feeling retail capitulation which is natural after we have been through a tough period and things are still uncertain.
GL with whatever you decide, it will be right for you.
No 'one size fits all' Captain - if you think you will need access to the funds then take the lot and stick it in the bank. There is no right or wrong answer here as what is right for you may not be right for the next person.
LLL... I have found the shares market to be too volatile for me. I have enjoyed some success snd some loss but feel if the market is down at a time I need the funds I will have to accept it. At his time I can say the take half at £8 and leave half is a tempting strategy rather than take my ball and go home perhaps... thanks Americano. I am always learning and willing to accept opinions/advice from people with more experience than myself. Thanks for sharing past experiences.
Captain P
You could sell 50% of your shares at £8.00 and leave the other half.? My point is you may miss out on the 'leg-up' or 'rebound'. I have learnt this mistake time and again... average down (hard work), to break-even then sell...and miss out on the rebound (DarkTrace 2021 comes to mind with me).
Of course this is not financial advice and good luck with whatever you decide.
Correction: *If I'd ONLY done that (bought just the vanguard index fund), I'd be 10% up this year.
CaptainPic, over the long term equity will outperform almost anything else. I think if we see £8, you are like to see higher than that too. In general, next 2-3 years should see gradual improvement in market sentiment (although nothing is certain!). I'd also recommend a broad global ETF / Index fund, I'm 10% up this year on Vanguard FTSE Developed World ex-U.K. Equity Index Fund.
SMT is my 'fun' / risky fund, which is a far smaller proportion of my portfolio. Learned a lot over the past 2 years, and the main takeaway lesson was to avoid single stocks, especially AIM companies, and just buy the whole market via a cheap index fund as above. If I'd one ONLY that, i'd be 10% up this year.
CaptainPicard - entirely your decision of course. But I’m just curious as to why you’d keep your “money away from shares in general”?
I can quite understand why you might want to swap from SMT into something lower risk & less volatile (some form of broad index tracker for example).
But I’m interested as to where you plan to invest the money instead (assuming you don’t mind us knowing)?
Well held Captain... I am in for £8 so nearly there now. Will be selling up when it gets there. If it does. I shall be keeping my money away from shares in general.
Mr Fresh
Yes, I agree