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morning
I was disappointed with the drop having took a stake on the strength of IC articles. To be fair though it really swings back here doesn't it. Interesting to read the posts about valuing Rh. Positive about the case here.
I am also dipping my toe in some aim stocks, small miners etc as well as SLP, (and also (JLP).
Its been a rollercoaster. Companies look good, their share price just drifts down, (or drops rapidly as S Africa riots).
Then some good news comes out, and the share price plummets..... wtf??
Then boom, up 17% in the last 5 days
Nothings changed, the fundamentals are still the same, the market in these is just massively volatile.
I initially bought just off both peaks in SLP back in May/June, but have since topped up in the valleys in July/Aug with bigger buys - still in the red, but only just.
This is not for the faint hearted!
Also amazed that Liberum Capital and ST at Investor's Chronicle got away with stating share price was worth 200p in May/June 2021.
So based on a cash adjusted p/e of 4 ...the share price is worth 127.7p.
(See I can do the same calculations and it is not so outlandish!)
And whats the reason for using a P/E of 4 pls? Really depends what multiple you see fair. A P/E of 4 is cheap in my books. 7-8 more likely, which gets you into the 200p ballpark (with an EPS of 25.3)
The london stock exchange site under fundamentals and ratios gives you the last 5 years PE ratios, for SLP it's 5.26, that's what you folks have decided over quite a few years so that's what i use. I see no reason to use more, it's SA its mine life is limited, even the TTM is 5.47. Not my rules these are yours. eps today 25-28p target 5.26x that.
bangrak - you should check your research. Forward p/e is 3.0 and the company is not a mine, it's a collection of operational retreatment processing plants. It is true it does have open cast mining project but that is still in exploration phase.
Quite happy to take a P/E of 5.262 as ballpark :)
Cor blimey, the co r ru p tion of the AIM market :)
I'm with bangrak on this one. Anything is possible but if his historic p/e is about right i wouldn't hope for any more suddenly.
Stocko shows the estimated EPS as 37.4 for this year. Obviously, this might be a rather optimistic view, given the setback last Q.
Might explain the (irrational) selloff (or not, ha!).
But that would bring it into the 200p range as well.
Monday will be interesting.
Stockopedia's EPS of 37c is not too far off the performance over the last year. It is in cents rather than pence.
As I’ve said before on this board, the 20/21 EPS is easily worked out (barring any accounting adjustments to the FV of assets or similar) from the last four quarterly RNSs. The interest for me in the year end release will be the commentary rather than the financials. I expect it to be cautious and understated as ever (but who knows...)
Velo. What we saying here then sunny jim. You're never too busy for meeeeeee. :)
Hi Stoodio,
100 it is then! ( I had that as the second target to beat - but didn't expect it :)
On a similar note, a 103 close tomorrow is fine with me.
And if it's as perky tomorrow as today, then 105/106 is also on the cards.
Should the SP take a day off tomorrow then it can still be regarded as bullish to neutral mood, even if it closes down at 98 (but defo no lower IMO :)
Where the close is tonight, is still in the trend vicinity that two previous occasions in previous weeks gave up the ghost (but were at a higher SP) and returned to the downtrend.
(Hence no lower than a 98 close is acceptable tomorrow - but no lower!)
All this week up to Friday has a bullish bias - it's Monday next week, that's anybody's guess; although if July and Aug had performed as in previous years, then I wouldn't expect much from the SP in Sept anyway - but all that has turned on it's head, so it's all up for grabs for September this year, IMO.
Still too early to get the first meaningful trend in the bag, but the Ultra Short term trend ('Minor trend') is now firmly bullish, will do in the meantime :)
Need to take the high ground on the topside of the 200 trend eventually, and is the ultimate battle plan aim, and holding it to win the war
- and that's 108 (for starters) in my book (110 to others on 'raw' data).
No one wins, and there is no victory until the 200 gets taken down
- it's only single-digit pence away from tonight's close - but it's (200) still rising daily, so no time to lose).
In the mid 80s this one is a no-brainer. It should have never gone to that level in a rational world. But since humans make decisions (mostly) emotional, so be it and I took good advantage of it.
Say 132p from there? What's not to like? Nothing at all.
Thank you very much Mr Market.
English patient, who said anything about forward PE. SLP has traded on an average PE ratio (not forward PE) of 5.26 on average over 5 years based on figures provided by the London stock exchange. Unless they do something with the cash, in about 9 years there isn't a lot left to grind up again and remove, life ends in 9 years without doing something that costs money and profits, do you think with a limited life like that that the market will give this a high PE ratio? Forward PE ratios are based on what just one analyst thinks of future profits and he is guessing RH which ranges from 6000-29,000 in just over a year. There is a possibility of 140p+ here as it stands as i don't think the majority cares about the DCF calculations 177p or cash pile. This is about to release results that many know already so people are buying and the shift will bring in technical traders watching the down trend which DGAFF about valuations. YTD RH is $22.5k, its average for the last 3 months has been $18.2k. On this $18.2k Rh and using an average of the last 3 months for the rest i get a profit of $104m eps 38c or 27p so 140p+ current PE ratio 3.58.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/SLP/sylvania-platinum-limited/fundamentals
then click ratios
Boom time baby.
You only get one shot, do not miss your chance to blow
This opportunity comes once in a lifetime
You can tell em I said it. Oh, I already did and got smoked for it hahahaha. Priceless :)
Snap back to reality, oooops there goes gravity :)
Let's f kin go.
Hi bangrak
Thanks for the really insightful post. Can I ask where you got your 9-year remaining asset life figure from? I’m not saying that you’re wrong: far from it. I just couldn’t find any specific reference to remaining asset life and reserves in last year’s financials or any RNS since (I may have missed it somehow). This issue is obviously super-important and I’m a bit uneasy that it doesn’t seem to be heavily reported by management.
I’d like to see a whole page of the annual report dedicated to this topic. Maybe there’s something in the Samancor contractual arrangements which makes the company reluctant to publish more detail.
Thanks again: I hope Suriwong still has a pulse...
Hi cautionyourblast, I’m quite new here and would like to know more about this as well but not concerned too much.
Coming from an interest in vanadium miners, Largo which has less than 7 years LOM left was hitting all time highs recently.
That 9 years is a point in time statement that will continually be extended…..
The SDO has exclusive rights to reprocess mine arisings and tailings dumps at current host mines, with a profitable operational life of approximately ten years, depending on the operation, and with potential to significantly extend the operating horizon as mining resources are continuously being converted to reserves at host mines.
Perhaps the 9 years was taken from the Website, however it was put there as a positive giving investors a great outlook for at least 10 years and beyond. At $45-$100 million net profit a year without any exploration costs, they won't need to go exploring like a dog with a bone in a river. Quote from website
"The SDO (Sylvania Dumping Operation) has exclusive rights to reprocess mine arisings and tailings dumps at current host mines, with a profitable operational life of approximately ten years, depending on the operation, and with potential to significantly extend the operating horizon as mining resources are continuously being converted to reserves at host mines."
What they DID NOT say was
Investors there's nothing to see here please move along we've only got 9 years left
artrader - do I know you from a long time ago on these boards under a different name? :)