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December 31st. £1.40+
Remember I said it :)
Willing to fall on sword.
Put it this way, its not going to last forever. Its expected to peak this month, which is coinciding with what appears to be a low in the rhodium prices. Some here are looking for the exact bottom, but given the strength of the balance sheet, and growth in earnings here, but I suspect they will end up buying much higher than the cheap price it currently is.
How long is the chip shortage expected to last and what's the long term outlook?
From a reputable source: https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prAP48247621
Chatmandu - not with me buddy :)
“The stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
House broker Liberian Capital believes we have reached peak microchip shortage this month. The price of Rhodium has already risen 12 percent from this month's low of $11250. One does appear to be following the other.
ZERO debt.
$106 million in cash and counting.
Net profit of $99.8m in 12 months to 30 June 2021.
"Based on flat production of 70,000 PGM ounces, cash profits north of US$120m (£87m) should be easily achievable in the new financial year." IC quote at current low spot rates. If Rhodium prices bounces back as is expected profts will be significantly higher than $120m
And here 's the odd thing: Market cap only £250 million? That is this is trading at only enterprise valuation of about 2 times cash profits. I seen other AIm shares trading at 6 times cash profits.
Either this is a bargain of the century or I'm missing something?
I've topped today as much as I had left under the bed, and stuffed in the leather armchair:)
DYOR.
buy in price, may or may not be at the basement.
Sylvania may be amenable to make some acquisitions in the same way that Jubilee appears confident in doing, they certainly have the cash?
12m Forecast Rolling PE Ratio (f) 2.8
I never put all in one share, and I go in slowy , trim and take small profits, try to get my average as low as possible... This looks like a winner for sure but you never know they could drop it lower!
General markets of down due to US debt default fears. I'm seeing a sea of red in stocks today. If I had some cash under the bed, I would plonk it all in here and wait a couple of years for a ten bagger.
Well its just touching 85-87p looks not a bad time to buy to me!
Twice as may buys as sells. Make sense :)
Velo, it's being walked down predictably as I've seen many times before. Look at those larger buys coming in to fill orders.
Wouldn't be surprised to see this in the green this afternoon :)
Just to break with default logic seeing this early hours 5% drop in the SP, you'd expect nothing good elsewhere in SLP's orbit
- but Rhodium is the opposite in these early hours continuing the nice bullish inrease on top of Friday's Rhodium performance. So no drop in Rhodium at this juncture - so rule that one out.
Sp looks like it could hit 85p or so again … will buy
I'm a newish investor with a couple of top-ups. I'm happy if they make $20m profit every year if PGM basket prices drop far lower. Not many AIM shares would make that kind of cash and pay a dividend as you say Marineclark. People de-ramping still forget 4p of SP will be paid back in December whatever happens and there might be more in February.
PGM's could drop to half its current value and this would still be a buy for me.
EggScotch, I just bought in the other day, and in profit. My timing was spot on as usual. I mean if you going to take a risk on an AIM share, might as well be one that has $91 million in the bank, made net profit of $100 million in 12 months to June 2021, is paying dividends- I've never heard of an AIM share paying dividends before! , and with peak microchip shortage this month acording to House broker Liberium Capital, you could do a lot of worse. Of course, funadmentals are not everything, if you had bought the highs of 150p you would be seriously underwater now, but probably not for too long. But this is now trading at an enterprise valuation of only 2.2 times net cash profit at current metal prices. Chart wise, chart bounced off previous lows, indicating that potential support level has been found. If that breaks I may sell, but risk reward of 10 precent to make 100 percent, a 1/10 ratio of risk/reward easily ticks my mutilbagger box. I've had 5 multibaggers in the last year. This would make it number six.
Thank you, E/Scotch & Stoodio.
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EggScotch @ " . . . and a bit underwater. But I've only invested what I can afford, . . . "
Sorry to now hitch my diary-trailer to your post E/Scotch; but your sentiments are pertinent to my post :)
Because,
- By the vicissitudes of outrageous fortune, I'm in a comparable situation.
Had my head elsewhere at the height of the summer, and as the SP rose, kissing the high 140's at one point, I was sitting on a 5 figure profit, no less! Yummy :)
By the time I came to my senses (all my fault I might add, I was playing about experimenting, at the worst time possible with a new strategy) I had already strayed off my true path of trend following.
By the time Rhodium had forced itself (the micro chips were already a known-known) into everyone's consciousness that it was going to empty it's bowels - straight into it's pants, my SLP "fortune" had descended to now barely a four figure profit.
And I had already erroneously increased holdings elsewhere in SLP into a new experimental strategy resulting in my being overweight in SLP.
Decided to sell my entire initial (profitable) holding over several tranches to lock-in that ever descending profit, as now had a new holding in another account elsewhere in SLP that was, and still is, 'underwater'.
I'm ready to rebuild my holding in my main account in more modest steps (whilst the other SLP account is in play)
- by adhering strictly to my older, proven in the heat of battle, preferred investing strategy - trend following.
(So, despite Friday's 8% rise, it's still a way to go to qualify as bullish, under my original T/F strategy guidelines).
So, on the second count I too, am now only invested with what I can afford, despite an overall portfolio of 6 figures.
So, "under water"? = tick
Only holding "what I can afford"? = tick
(And still tinkering with the "experiment"; but with the added caveat - only to act when the trend lines are giving the green light anyway).
Velo, you're on the money my brother. All is heresay, you takes your chances and make up your own mind. These people are paid to put writing out. Sometimes it's done just to fill their monthly quota of words required by their employers :)
Did anyone notice last Tuesday's anomaly to shares traded? Way, and I mean WAY, above average volume. Many many small volume sells throughout the day, coupled with FAR larger buys throughout the day with around 6-7 milly shares traded I think it was? Quite an anomaly and something that for me doesn't go unnoticed. Seen it happen a few times over the years here and usually get's followed by upwards pressure.
I've always maintained that SLP is 'somewhat' played here by Mr Market. Always has been.
Nice Post @Velo
I am only 5 months holding and a bit underwater. But I've only invested what I can afford, and hopefully in 6 months to a year things will be looking good. The figures are great despite the chip shortage and basket price. Might top up next pay day - hopefully the sp will rise so much i won't be tempted! Ha ha.
Cheers, all
Bare in mind that's just one report's "opinion".
There are many others.
Some opined things would noticeably ease by the end of this year,
- others by early next year,
- some just 'next year' in 2022,
- and yet more (only a few) opining that it's all been grossly underestimated and they don't see anything like back to normal until 2023.
Take your pick.
Anchoring to just one that offers the least pain is risky with so many others differing to each other, in the recovery.
Personally, to avoid dissapointment, I'm mentally prepared to not become too over confident until that 2023 forecast expires, whilst inwardly ready to celebrate should the early bird recovery reports prove the more prescient before then. That way you can't be dissapointed, only ever pleased to hear of things improving.
I bet there are recent buyers to this stock who are under water and should each report's deadline's prove unfruitful, lose confidence and sell at a loss unable to see an end to the pain (should the SP remain unresponsive).
That's what anchoring to the best dated guidance to early recovery reports can inflict upon investors.
No offence but I'm taking nil notice of all posts linking to a fav analyst - (including ST of the IC mag) - unless that analyst is also a billionaire because they're always right on the money :)
All of it, including our own, is just someone else's opinion. In one of my investing book there's a chapter from years ago where they discovered that the majority of financial analysts personal portfolio's had performed no better than a typical private investor (which was then 6% gain overall, per year for PI's in general).
Anyway, how does that saying go again, something along the lines of:
- Plan for the worst just in case, but remain upbeat, that better prevails?
I do get all the analysis and predictions on this BB and to be fair, a lot of it is quite entertaining.
But one just needs to take a big step back and consider where will PGM demand be in 6/12/18 months time (and for the next 5 or so years). Does anyone here seriously believe PGMs won’t be in high demand over the next few years? I’m invested here and more so in THS. I’ll continue to ride out the short term fluctuations but as a LTH I couldn’t be more comfortable. GLA :)
Wed 03:05
Posts: 241
Price: 92.00
No Opinion
Bagrak posted:
"According to a report from IHS Markit. The report projects that semiconductor shortages across the automotive sector will extend into the first quarter of 2022, and possibly into the second."
Given that the markets are generally said to be looking six months ahead, maybe we haven't got too long to wait?
Orangecannon @
"I was expecting a 5%+ drop (SLP) . . . as I thought Rhodium was plummeting . . . Did it bounce? "
-------------------------
Kinda :)
Idly checked just now, with similar thoughts, but discovered (Johnson Matthey site) Rhodium had increased today from $11,250 at yesterday's close to today's Friday close, of $12,350
- That's almost, just under, a near significant 10% rise in Rhodium alone, today :)
PS.
That Thursday $11,250 was awfully close to the last chance saloon's $10,700 as to make no difference, in a table I posted before heading up north recently ( I calculated it as the 78.6% final Fibonacci level).
Treat it more as a checkpoint level not as a forecast).
Whatever, it was close enough to imply it's already bounced away from the entrance to death valley - for now at least anyway.
My post was in response to orangecannon's post, for it to make sense.