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Big move up today for here. 12 month high & 5 year intra day high. Have to go back to 2015 to beat 155.
I suspect the 158 prints are buys. Probably an order called for as we are up on relatively little volume.
I think the double divi works out to about 4.6p in my ISA so something else must surely be causing the rise.
Re the arbitrage. I am not aware that the shares are transferable. They are dual listed with a quantity on each exchange.
Usual caveats
Trek
Arbitration opportunity
sell at Nigeria priced at 3334 which works out to 2.16 gbp
does anyione know how to play this
buy in uk and sell in Nigeria?
any ideas please?
Mele Kyari, CEO of NNPC, is the blockage to this Seplat-MPNU acquisition. With the weight of political statements expectant of immediate sign-off, it is about time he folds or is fired. These people are the worst face of corruption, pursuing self-enrichment at the expense of the Nigerian people, it really is despicable. About time he is fired.
Very interesting diversification proposed by the Co.
In the meantime, given the announcement this week from the Oil Minister re SEPL, I suspect no one wants loss of face and we can expect a swift conclusion to the Mobile deal, almost 2 years and 2 months ago.
This will thrust SEPL into a veritable force in both Nigeria and London markets, oil production will leap overnight, the SP might take a week or more to catchup to the RNS announcement that the deal is finally signed off, I expect the SP will rise over subsequent sessions towards 220p+ initially, but I think we will be over 300p by year end.
Tick tock, we are almost there.
Drive for clean energy
https://leadership.ng/seplat-plans-investment-initiative-around-clean-energy/
Trek
Some interesting points in the video:
• All issues relating to the acquisition have been resolved (at least that is what I heard).
• Nigeria will encourage other companies to emulate Seplat. Seems that Nigeria has accepted divestments are inevitable and that local companies will need to make further acquisitions. This is good news for Seplat for future acquisitions.
• Seplat will be a flagship for future investment and production, and will be assisted by the government.
• Nigeria is looking to access funds from capital markets for O&G investments. To attract such funds, stakes owned by national companies will need to be limited. NNPC already owns 60% in the MPNU related assets and therefore, unlikely to be awarded any additional ownership but let’s see what happens. For now, just speculation on my part.
• Seplat will likely benefit from being first mover in the race to make acquisition(s) and increase production.
Thanks 'Surprised' - it was that video link I tried to publish here, but I guess it was redacted because I'm a new user.
Very interesting and somewhat unique to see a ten minute long praise by an actual Oil Minister aimed at a single company. Mr. Brown hinted at deep offshore and bolt-on acquisitions (small wells) and Mr. Heineken hinted that there will be a lot more inactive wells for sell in the future. Not a difficult puzzle to make...
Good luck ahead everyone, cheers.
.''Seplat are the role model of the Nigerian oil industry, Mr. Heineken (Oil Minister) assures that the MPNU acquisition will be sealed within a short time''
(Speech by Oil minister link in tweet)
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1780971881551532044
A good summary on Twitter of why this could now finally get the final push https://twitter.com/OpeBee/status/1780982312915829220?t=0I9FQM_nNkvZh47Gub37gQ&s=19
Hi Alex,
LSE don’t seem to allow your links.
I think a few of us have a consensus 220-240 on divestment and a 6c per quarter divi. Both those figures are extremely conservative which reflects the market.
Likewise I have been following the media and have now made SEPL my largest position after adding the last yesterday. Looking forward to results on 29th with a double divi and a special divi all in quick succession!
Ops wise there is so much news in H2 to underpin the SP without the divestment which I see as just upside risk.
And as I have posted before this is as good as it gets to invest macro wise. Esp with election just over and business friendly government. We don’t have to worry about electioneering for a while the govt should be delivering now.
Usual caveats
Trek
It seems as a couple of local newspapers have snapped up that Mr. Heineken (Oil Minister) essentially promised that the MPNU acquisition will be sealed within short.
The full YouTube clip, however, I doubt a lot of people have seen. It currently has 152 views (can be double views from single users) and the Oil Minister not only double downs on the deal to be completed within soon, he holds a ten minute speach as to why companies explicitly as Seplat are the role model of the Nigerian oil industry, and should act as a lead in the roll-up of inactive wells from "majors". I see none of the news agencies mentioning that Mr Heineken also mentioned that the actual country president is committed to seal the acquisition.
Link: [LINK REMOVED]
With that commitment in mind, I'm sharing to you my sheet with my numbers. I'm making very conservative MPNU production numbers and I also make safety margins on ANOH and Sapele. I assume the low range on guided legacy production as well. However we look at it, I see +150% to +200% upside when MPNU is sealed and ANOH is active. I do see another $100m in dividends from AGPC in a couple of years, but it's not in my model currently.
Take a look at it, and let me know what you guys think. Link: [LINK REMOVED]
Disclosure: Holding 330 000 shares, of which 50 000 was acquired this morning. 280 000 shares with an average entry of 79p (dividends deducted).
MPNU production is around 70k bopd I hear, the difference being the natural decline rate of wells when there is no new/replacement production capex. That is what Lokpobiri is referring to.
The terms of the deal remain the same as originally agreed, as far as I know/have read
Lokpobiri's statements certainly suggest a higher likelihood of imminent closure, as he already has egg on face from his comments at Davos in January, so I don't see why he would make such a statement again and one so clear if he felt the delays could continue much longer - it would just make him look even more impotent
And Nigeria are loosing revs coz deal not done!
https://punchng.com/fg-may-revoke-unused-oil-well-licences-amid-30bn-loss/?utm_source=top-story&utm_medium=web
Trek
I heard rumours that it could have gotten done early last year but management screwed up and refused a compromise deal that was offered which just so happens to be on the same the terms that rumours say they've now accepted. The deal is that seplat will obtain 75% instead of 100% of mpnu and nnpc will get the other 25%, we'll see if this is true.
Deal was signed in Feb 22. Sounds ridiculous when you say it back!!
Https://punchng.com/tinubu-committed-to-conclusion-of-seplat-exxonmobil-deal-lokpobiri/
Hi buzz,
Not xd until 25/4/24. Payment 29/05/24 so should get the currency conversion rate on 26/04/24.
Usual caveats
Trek
Trek, cheers. I still cant see the currency exchange rate into GBP RNS
Hi buzz,
Mine are in an ISA with ii. I get paid in gbp. The divi is 3 cents a share and the currency conversion is announced by the company in advance of payment.
The next divi will be 6c as it includes a 3c special divi.
I am surprised at the pull back here today. Nigeria must be an international oasis and Nigerian HC’s will be in demand.
I get the macro impact from any hostilities and inflation but forecasts of $120 oil and local demand should net out favourably for sepl albeit obviously one would rather have a hassle free $80!
Usual caveats
Trek
Can somebody explain to me the dividend policy here. I can't see any currency conversion RNS for UK £p
Do dividends gate paid in £p to nominee accounts ?
Good news on TNP.
About time for an update on OB3 also , or ?
One thought i have had for the last year is how the Anoh condensate will reach the market without the exportpipeline operational, now that seems to get resolved ahead of Anoh /OB3 start-up.
"In response to recent concerns about a shortfall in our oil production during the first quarter of this year, I want to assure everyone that we're taking decisive measures to address the situation. The reported shortfall was mainly due to issues on the Trans Niger Pipeline and maintenance activities by some oil companies.
I'm pleased to announce that we've resolved these issues, and production is expected to return to previous levels very soon. Our oil production, including condensate, which was at approximately 1.7 million barrels per day, will soon be restored.
We're also actively evolving our policies to maximize the utilization of all available wells in Nigeria. This strategic move will help us increase production, thereby generating crucial revenue to stabilize our foreign exchange reserves and fund essential infrastructure projects outlined in the 2024 budget.
As we navigate through these challenges, I want to assure everyone of renewed hope. Let's all remain committed to ensuring the sustainability and growth of Nigeria's oil sector, which is vital for our economy.
Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri Ph.D."
https://twitter.com/senlokpobiri/status/1778843285944954986/photo/2
Look at Nigeria’s forecast population growth. It is imo an important long term investment factor for SEPL.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/most-populous-countries-projected-populations-2075/
Usual caveats
Trek
Added 10k at the bell. Run of divi’s coming up is not to be snubbed at. And the last few times it went xd it either recovered like next two days or was divi agnostic!
Nigeria is looking pretty good from a macro perspective. They are everyone’s friend internationally and oil looks like it’s holding up well. Could even go higher. Domestically, economy is not so good atm as growth is constrained but demand is there.
Usual caveats
Trek
Nigeria needs to accept that fuel prices fluctuate; is it such a hard lesson to learn? The beneficiaries of subsidised fuel are black market traders who suck up all the supply and export it.
Reuters exclusive via power up email. Worth signing up for its free.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nigerias-nnpc-faces-3-billion-backlog-petrol-payments-sources-say-2024-04-08/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Power-Up&utm_term=040824&user_email=b2e8c97ccc6ddb76107c5b8c6d401963987d41317d2787d216d506bcf903729b
Trek