The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Someone has just dumped some shares. Quite a drop!
"I'm inclined to believe that local traders know something that we don't."
Yes, but then there has been the same discount to the Nigerian exchange ongoing for the entire two years I have been invested here.
The current +80% premium in the Lagos listing to the LSE listing is not only explained by "inflation & fx". For years and years (during inflation and falling FX) it traded at par, or near par.
While I agree with you that the local FX intervention in 2023 makes the official Naira look a bit overvalued, the black market rate was/is 1035 to the USD this week so it's still a hefty premium. I'm inclined to believe that local traders know something that we don't.
But it doesn't say change OF business, it says change IN business. MPNU deal is massive change for Seplat. Not just size, but change to corporate structure. MPNU will be separate unit of Seplat (with its own board I assume).
Personally, I think its right that Seplat should publish prospectus and shareholders should get a vote. Companies shouldn't be allowed to sidestep consulting shareholders just because because they use cash.
This is my interpretation though, Investor Relations would answer your question I think.
SKON yes but its not a change of business in the true sense of the word
...is due to currency and inflation.
Tom, we know the mpnu deal is reverse takeover from the Seplat proposal. They knew at the time it would be cash deal and their lawyers will have written the proposal. You then have to ask why it's an rto when it's a cash deal and that's why I quoted handbook below.
Nigerian market has risen and so has Seplat share price in Nigeria. But Naira is down by more than half against dollar and pound. So much of rise
Nigerian main market, just for interest is at an all time high up 40% this year which shows a lot of confidence in Nigeria at this time
Seplat is up 120% over past 12 months in Lagos compared with about 60% increase in London
https://afx.kwayisi.org/ngx/seplat.html
SP is around £2.30 in Lagos. One wonders why?
Looking good again today maybe news coming very soon
It has been increased, but not by as much as they'd hoped. Note the comment about Nigeria failing to meet previous quotas.
"Based on that it has given Nigeria a 2024 target of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), Angola one of 1.11 million bpd and Congo a target of 277,000 bpd, OPEC+ said in the statement.
In June it had been agreed, pending the assessments by the consultancies, that Angola could produce 1.28 million bpd and Nigeria 1.38 mln bpd and possibly as much as 1.58 million bpd.
Both have failed to meet previous quotas hurt by underinvestment and security issues.
Congo’s target for 2024 is roughly in line with what was agreed in June."
https://businessday.ng/energy/article/opec-caps-nigerias-oil-output-at-1-5mbd-in-new-quota-allocation/
Sorry my computer has gone wonky
the missing bit "**************"
"an rto involves a smaller quoted co taking over a larger unquoted co by a share for **************"so i dont think it applies here,this is a cash deal
I had to Google.
So I think the reason why it's a reverse takeover is not because of the size of the transaction (no shares are being issued), but because acquisition
"results in a fundamental change in the business".
Quoted from here:
https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/LR/5/6.html
Considering our S/C is 770m will it still be deemed as a reverse takeover if we only pay a nominal sum which is less than our S/C thanks
Notice that Nigeria's 'quota' has been increased.....
A new broom sweeps clean exactly what i was rhinking,not long now
Perhaps he sacked the old board simply because of the obstruction they were causing to the deal?
Is this what we are waiting for?
New board who will sign agreement with Exxonn?
https://dailypost.ng/2023/11/27/tinubu-appoints-new-board-management-team-for-nnpcl-full-list/
Article says appointed from December 1st.
Miniscule spread again seems they want your shares
With today's news that Equinor are selling their assets we have three (3) super-majors that are engaging in fully legitimate transactions that all parties (seller, buyer, country) have agreed upon.
ENI
Equnior
Exxonmobil
I'd argue the risk that NNPC (via the state) strong-arms Exxonmobil into submission and agreeing upon a transaction outside of the original contract just to "please the state" is increasingly slim. Let's all keep in mind, NNPC/"the state" would lose any case in arbitration in a heart-beat: this is not a legal grey-area, it's very clear.