Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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SEE is my top bet. And I don't see any serious argument against its long term prospects. Whether it takes 1 year or 3 years to produce serious returns from current levels depends on how others perceive it. None of us know that, so my planning is in the three year camp. Happy to be proved over cautious.
There is also a change from ICE to electric cars taking place over the next three years. BYD and NIO likely, in my view, to be more relevant than Ford and GM. But I rarely see them mentioned on this board.
What price " The next Arm Holdings" (The 'uncannily accurate' Colin Barnden ) ?
Whilst wins now will not get to SOP until 2024 there will be decent NRE paid I assume over the next couple of years. Not an insubstantial amount when you add up the size of the wins like the VW win.
I of course do not know how much but added together could add decent amounts added to everything else we know about (and probably things we dont).
Paul indeed made that point when talking about the graph on pipeline that the values are at production SOP and exclude NRE.
It all adds up....
I appreciate your pragmatic view , Brock, & your philosophy regarding your core holding & your traders transaction.Based on current fundamentals our value is approaching £400mill,with FY21 revenue of around £26mill & loss making for the next year or two - so someone looking at SEE for the first time may question our value.However, Magna would not have recently invested $10mill ,along with further investments by LO at the same price, without their people running a slide rule over SEE & they clearly liked what they saw, along with 2 Non exec Directors at the same price - so not unreasonable to expect 11p to be a fair starting point.
Our revenues are expected to increase exponentially over the next 2/3 years & beyond & once we become profitable we become very proftable,at 90% margins on Auto.
We believe we are market leaders in a new segment of the Auto Market which will soon be mandated in the US ,EU & Australasia , so all vehicle manufacturers ( including & especially Fleet) have to acquire DMS & we have multiple prospective sales channels /partners to help us achieve a decent market share, which we all now hope will substantially exceed the 30% previously referred to .As we win more RFQs & our order book increases & existing contracts extended & expanded, & we achieve our first Fleet OEM contract ( either directly or via a Partner) our substantial potential will become apparent & some folks will recollect that Intel paid up to $15bill for Mobileye ,admittedly once Mobileyes revenues were a fair amount higher than ours (but very achievable levels by us over the next couple of years) .Our current value at around $500mill may seem like an attractive proposition to those seeing the bigger picture over the next 2/3 years may start wanting a stake in our vast future potential & the release of a steady flow of positive news over the coming months may well be the catalyst for a substantial re rate.We would all love to see 300p or 100p but right now most of us would be very grateful to see a new near term range of 15-20p which, in my opinion is possible-but,as ever we all must do our own research & be mindful of the potential pitfalls & hazards which could arise.
That's a prudent way of looking at it Brock, but how to value all the upside to sales we know will come?
SEE tends to disclose the bare minimum contract values. Surely we will see a number of contract upgrades, plus new wins plus sales led by partners such as Omni (who Colin estimated spent $20m developing their latest chip). What about fleet connections via EROAD? And then hopefully aviation will deliver some revenues down the line.
S2020
Iam hoping for a $150-200m drop from the $1b then results :)
Maybe a bit optimistic but no harm dreaming...
I’m sure the Institutions that hold a large stake here did so because they see the share price rising each year, they would wait to 2023 on the basis that the price will not rise.
Everyone invests for different reasons, and those that’s saying it’s going to be another 2 years staying around this price are obviously traders as why else would they own them,
DMS isn't standard in all f150 at the moment and VW contract doesn't start til 2024.
It was announced and the sp went down?
Clearly no ducks are given about it.
It's starting now yes, but it's not big numbers YET
S2020,
That's 125m aus dollars. Which is £63m. Which at 90% margin is £57m.
Which is over 5 years. So £12m a year?
Actually no cos it will likely be £1m first year, £3m 2nd year, 12m 3rd year, 20m 4th year, 21m 5th year.
So first 2 years it does nothing to the financials
You really can't deal with anyone who tries to keep it real can you?
Brock, So if even slightly correct which lets be honest it's still a guestimate, my gut feeling (no technical financial research involved) of a re-rate in 2023-2026 is still pretty accurate to yours, if indeed it comes true.
However, lets sit tight, it's still likely to be a ride of our lives once it starts. Lets see if the recent new posters are still here in the next few years keeping the existing LTH's company.
DR777,
I don't know if it will go down again. But if you already have enough and these are just traders then I'd be taking the profit.
To start trading these you need to be clear its a simple trade and not some I might keep because they were cheap.
I sold the ones I bought yesterday for a £15 profit, because I thought we was in for a bad market day today. I was wrong about that but can have another go another day.
Market very risky for trading a tech stock at moment, so I might leave this for a bit.
But a month ago when this was going from 10 to 11 almost daily it was a good trade.
Top selling vehicle in US for last 4 decades is F150
Highest volume OEM is VW, the contract announced was A$125m which was the highest ever by a long way
2020
We all know what we've won, but those cars are small volumes, the larger volumes will be 2024/25 onward.
Will we all just come on here and say £1 by Christmas every week til it happens.
Loads of people setting themselves up for disappointment again when the massive increases in fleet don't happen because of x,y and z.
Just keeping it real
It's like a "derampers convention" on here.
I love the ones who build models to prove the SP isn't going to rise, so funny
Surely any deramper worth their salt can find evidence of a competitor winning the F150, or IX and I4, or VW?
Brockwl:
''In the meantime, it’s almost becoming a trading share. Rather than get annoyed about the price drops, pick up a few on the bad days and sell on the good days. Keep any profit in shares, its surprising how many you can add to your total.''
If it was that simple. I bought some more earlier this week ( as did quite a few of us ), on a bad day. When is the good day? I could sell today for some profit, but will it go down from here again?
Where the profit goes the sp will follow.
I agree with what your saying and indeed you have put it much more eloquently than I did over the weekend haha.
There is an outside chance that when the contracts are signed investors may value the company on the fact there is 1bn worth of contracts over 5-7years and when using the old 'if I bought this company what would it be worth?' It looks very undervalued when taking all the other parts of the business into consideration.
So once we see the first doubling year on year Paul tells us will happen it should start to fly?
While I’m in posting mood, I thought I’d repeat my view on the share price.
A lot of posters are expecting this share to jump considerably on news, as they see plenty of other loss-making story stocks at silly valuations.
You have to look at it from the point of view of other potential buyers, trying to value the stock. They don’t know the detail, that most on here know, and just look at the financials, and try to measure growth.
If you came to this stock fresh, the first ting you would notice is the £400M market cap.
Then you would notice its loss making. Ok not ideal, but before you dismiss it completely maybe the level of growth, will make up for all that and make it a screaming buy.
But what you find is last year was by far the best at something like 18% revenue growth.
At that point you dismiss it as just another story stock, that’s just not cutting it.
You see people may invest if that growth is 30% to 50%, but 18% isn’t enough, for a company still loss making.
What’s unusual about SEE as a blue sky, story stock is that its growth profile is very different to others.
If you look at some of the pipeline graphs that Paul put out at the last presentation, and model that with some revenue/profit calculations, what becomes very clear is that growth for auto whilst good for the next couple of years doesn’t make much of a dent in our revenue and profit figures.
My model shows a small profit at year end June 2024. Enough to warrant a 2p share price for a normal moderate growth type company, using a PER of 15.
That profit also won’t show until they release those results, so might be October 2024 before we know we are no longer loss making.
The following year 2025 is when auto really ramps up (5* the 2024 years figures). After that it’s all downhill.
Now I have no idea when the market will move the share price to reflect the 2025 onwards windfall, however I don’t expect it to be anytime soon.
No matter what the news, investors need to see the company become profitable, or at the very least show exceptional growth.
Whilst in 2025 I expect that growth to be 500% in auto alone, and the price pop. I’m not convinced the growth or news in the next year is going to be anywhere near enough to see a serious rerate.
I’m not even convinced it will happen in the year following.
Try not to be impatient with this share, it will happen I’m sure, but not as soon as everybody is hoping.
In the meantime, it’s almost becoming a trading share. Rather than get annoyed about the price drops, pick up a few on the bad days and sell on the good days. Keep any profit in shares, its surprising how many you can add to your total.
GLA