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indeed Porschefund… and disgruntled PI selling in illiquid situations can indeed have a big impact .. so it of course might be PI driven to some - or even large -extent..... and therefore Olderandwisers comeback of share repurchase program might be a useful cover all bases one. But very early in this 'new' companies life to be starting a share repurchase program - or indeed dividends either - perhaps need to get at least a years worth of strong audited results - especially FCF - out there first, I suggest.
Even allowing for some disgruntled, capitulating PI selling, which I'm sure is also happening, nevertheless a strong company bid for shares would speak for itself.
P.S. Can someone close to the company please suggest that to them?
NtM- Your suggestion assumes it is bond holders selling and not PI's.
You mean why doesn't SAVP engage in a share repurchase program for a limited time, to match the estimated remaining bondholders' equity swap position. They must have the cash from the SevenE cash flow to attempt this. And what a message that would give out to the market!
Surely the hard bit is getting back in profit in the first place Bluebelly :-)
PS: Why didn't they further co-ordinate existing - and even new too - II's to mop up more/remaining bondholders shares in late to mid teens p ? Much less left out there now than to begin with and now huge bang for buck in terms of averaging down high averages for relatively little outlay for existing II's.. if prepared to undertake such an exercise in early 20's or late teens p previously to clear a good chunk down, why not one more concerted effort to clear the rest down, not least as altogether for a considerably smaller outlay this time round?
Is there a stock that is not undervalued? Especially oil? It means nothing. What it does mean is this is still sliding by the day.
Wow 89p, I must have missed that or forgotten it.
The hard bit is making sure we hold when we are back in profit, due to the fear of losing it again.
BB
Bluebelly broker notes were typically predicting 89p after closure of the 7E deal but market sentiment and coronavirus impact has led to the current position. I also sold other shares to top up here but stupidly did so at 21p thinking it was close to the bottom and that the Niger update was imminent. If we see 45p this year I will be very happy
At this rate. Then where will it go?
50% down from the high in Nov of 28.5p.
I've sold some of my core holding from my favourite share, to average down here.
Average is now 18.3p, just 5 weeks ago this was trading at 19p+.
The only risk I can see is the management of the debt & the CEO reward over 1% of company value.
However the large holdings from II's and the fact that most are increasing give me the confidence to increase my holding.
Thanks to all the knowledgeable posters here, I see this as a massive opportunity. 45p is a 200% gain from this level. Would 45p make SAVP undervalued after Q1& Q2 updates and Niger CPR??
BB
Andy- thanks for your post and I endorse your view. I too have topped up in the last couple of weeks when the SP was in the 16s. I didn’t find bottom but bought rather than lose the chance to top up at these prices should the Niger RNS arrive.
I will continue to top up as funds permit.
In addition to the anticipated profitability and FCF I believe is now being enjoyed, it’s also worth remembering the underlying asset values since the 7E completion.
The back to back deal with AIIM valued Accugas and Uquo alone at 20.84p and this was at a distressed asset valuation. Add in Stubb Creek and the uplift to a going concern value and the CPR Nigerian asset value net of debt equates to over 50p. Then add in the value of Niger assets.
The major shareholders list published last week also speaks volumes, its not surprising the IIs were happy to average down by taking the bondholders shares at 20p or less and the radio silence spooking PI’s with a short term view is giving II’s and PI’s with a longer term view a great opportunity.
It should also be noted that there were no changes to the Directors Shareholdings. I’ll bet they would love the opportunity to add at these levels but the ongoing Niger negotiations mean the close period continues.
I bought a bit more last week and share the positive sentiment of other posters.
So much has changed since last year’s financials. I feel we may have to wait for the 2019 financials to be published to really get a steer on prospects from here that we can then analyse in detail. I’m very hopeful that those financials will be very positive.
I’ve no idea if the price will fall or rise before then, but I remain very confident for the outlook into the next two years.
Financial delivery is now paramount should the directors wish to retain their positions.
Best wishes,
O&W. If you’d written my thoughts for me, the text would have been the same as you’ve just written. Am so hoping AK’s timings are still correct and that this all kicks off (in a positive way) in the next couple of weeks. ????Certain there are many, many other out there that are going greyer day by day with the stress. Our fault for investing in an AIM O & G I guess. Still, as Derek Trotter (and the SAS) would say, He who dares, wins!
Andy, I bl$$dy well hope you're reasoning is right, as not only have I been here a few years now, but I keep averaging down day by day almost, the last two weeks, to accumulate an obscene amount of shares for me personally. So not all PIs are capitulating. Yet!!! ATB.
Bond holders tells broker “Just sell into liquidity”. Pi’s sell, the price goes down, buyers step in, create liquidity and then the bond holders broker is mandated to sell into said liquidity. It’s self fulfilling UNTIL IT ISNT
This is why I’ve been buying over the last 2-3 weeks. Fear of a huge short position (Pi’s sell). Fear of Institutional selling (Pi’s sell) Fear of somebody knowing something (Pi’s sell). The reality is very different. Savannah the parent company is sitting on roughly £40M in cash, Savannah Nigeria is sitting on £11M cash whilst producing £8M a month in free cash flow. The company added a new customer 3 weeks ago and stated everything is on track to fully contract the CPF by the end of 2020. The team is actively trying to renegotiate the debt package which in turn tells me they are getting paid. In an interview on the 31st January the CEO said they expect to introduce a partner, start an early production facility and continue exploration drilling in Niger. The company is now in a strong position in terms of farm out negotiations but are unlikely to update the market until the outcome is known. Likewise if a JV wasn’t on the table I’d have expected a strategy update by now. SAVP investors have got themselves in a right tizzy the last few weeks. From my observations the seller is happy to churn on daily volumes but Pi’s selling is driving it down. Institutions have been happy to add to holdings at higher prices and they have far better access than many here. Seems to me like opportunity knocks and I’m happy to accumulate more until I see reason that the story has changed.
Think about it rather than old news but what's in that news. AK said he still expects a partner to be introduced.
The articles are relevant because Jefferies are handling the farm-out process/timeline.
1) Africa Intelligence reported on 10/9/19 (2 days before Savps RNS) that Savp had appointed Jeffries International to handle the Niger farmout. "In the presentation brochure sent out to potential investors that Africa Energy Intelligence was able to consult " - so it saw the farmout process material.
2) Savp a few days later RNS that they had appointed Jeffries International as joint corporate brokers on 12/9/19.
3) Upstream article of 1 month later 14/10/19 (5 months ago) quoted Asian Conglomerates interested and also mentioned Indias ONGC Videsh. Specifically, it said from sources that the farmout process was ***EXPECTED TO TAKE 3 - 6 MONTHS***. This then keeps us in the current timeframe of up to an expected 6 months to complete a farmout and why nothing is yet announced, possibly until signed off within whatever farmout timeline is defined in the process deadline by Jeffries reporting back to Savp.
4) The previous report 1 year earlier by Africa Intellignce reported the significant links between 2 Savp investors (Azerbaijani ie Asian), also the $50m funding from the Geneva based Oil trading group which AEI reported as being Socar Trading a subsiduary of the Azerbaijan national oil Co/link to Savp investors. Now only 4 months ago on the 14/10/19 'Upstream' reported Asian Conglomerates interested as well as Indias ONGC. So maybe some connection to Socar is in there as a potential partner ?
So while we wait for news on Niger - it may be outside Savps control until whatever process/ timeline/deadline imposed under Jeffries watch is completed. Jeffries farmout process must have got underway by 10/9/19 if Africa Intelligence were able to see the material. Upstream said the process was likely to last 3-6 months. 6 months from 10/9/19 would put us at a 6 month timescale of 10th March 2020 by which we may hear some news or some alternative if no farm-in.
Finally it's interesting to see the February presentation out (even if little changed), the share register update yesterday and the emergence of a New York based investment house having 2.8% or 28m shares in Savp.
Hi Zen, I posted way back about the concert party of which from memory Musayev was part of. It’s in one if the RNS’s. I looked into the shell companies way back it’s just how some of the super wealthy play things for tax purposes. AK was pulled up once for a tax scheme, still at least he likes the money and I don’t think he’s gonna loose out on his stake in savp. Gives me confidence buying at these apparent low levels using SIPPs and ISa’s!
Wrt Socar as a jv, given the extended radio silence nothing would surprise me from here. I do agree though a double bottom of 12p looks likely but only in the absence of news!
Trek
My post was the same. Lol. I agree with your other comment.
Mr B It was actually tongue in cheek! The truth is we don’t know what’s buys or sells. The only thing we know is that the price has dropped again today meaning more selling pressure then buying.
Are there any connections to the Upstream report of Asian Conglomerates being interested 5 months ago and to this a year earlier in AEI and Savp connections. Socar/Socar Trading would definitely be Asian ie part of the Azerbaijani national oil Co.
From 16-10-18
The British junior developing its deposit in the Agadem zone has well-heeled shareholders close to Baku.
According to our sources, Turab Musayev, an executive of Azerbaijani group Socar's Genevan trading arm Socar Trading, holds shares in British firm Savannah Petroleum, the latest competitor to join Niger's offshore playing field. While Musayev's stake in Savannah may now be a mere 0.1%, which he owns via his private equity firm Luzon Investments, he has backed the company since its beginning in 2014. As well as its Nigerien blocks, R1, R2, R3, R4, Savannah is also active in Nigeria where it bought Seven Energy's assets.
Turab Musayev's brother Taleh Musayev also holds shares in Savannah via his firms Aralia Capital and Peleng Holding Corp. Taleh Musayev's share of the firm has reportedly fallen from 9% to around 2.5%.
Taleh Musayev has known Savannah founder and chief executive Andrew Knott for over a decade. They were colleagues at corporate bank Merrill Lynch for a spell and in 2013 cofounded Lothian Oil & Gas Partners, which provided the oil and gas junior with financial and administrative support when it was sent up in 2014. It is said that Lothian Oil & Gas Partners no longer works with Savannah.
Socar Trading is a wholly owned subsidiary of Azerbaijani national oil and gas firm Socar, headed by Rovnag Abdullayev. The latter is a MP of the ruling party and part of President Ilham Aliyev's inner circle.
In a press release posted last September, Savannah announced it was in talks with a mystery Genevan trader, which it did not wish to name, to raise $50 million (AEI 825). When contacted, Savannah Petroleum declined to disclose the trader's identity.
And there’s the nice 269K purchase :)
And there’s the nice round 100k sale.
The game is now to guess what is the lowest they will sell to. My guess is 12.** and that’s when I’ll top up. Not a penny before.
ONGC Videsh India mentioned amongst Asian conglomerates as potential farm in partners.
Subscripton based - Quotes a "A well placed industry source."
Partners sought are "large independents and national oil companies" with tech/finance clout.
"Asian Conglomerates" said to be interested, "May include Indias ONGC Videsh which was close to finalising a farm in deal a few years ago" (with Savp).
"You can assume that is a name Savannah will be revisiting this time around" a source.
Could farm out up to half its stake (a source).
Farm out process aided by Geo consultancy Merlin Energy Resources likely to last between 3-6 months. (We do know it started a while back)
'Situation changed with the pipeline deal - now much much more attractive to potential faminees.'
"Interest has increased since the pipeline deal (said a source). It's looking like a very healthy process".
https://www.upstreamonline.com/weekly/savannah-seeks-niger-partner/2-1-685340
Keeps me going is those well-researched posters.