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Last year AstraZeneca entered in to an agreement with KYM Biosciences for its Phase I clinical candidate CMG901. AZ paid an upfront payment of $63m and agreed additional milestone development and sales-related payments of up to $1.1bn.
Beware of the devious or ignorant on this chat forum who have no comprehension of the significant upside big pharma will pay for a new P1 candidate such as SDC-1801.
Exactly right. The average licencing deal for platform and discovery candidates in 2023 was $47 million and $55 Million respectively. The $63 million KYM licencing deal for its P1 candidate was at a slight premium to that.
* The average Phase 2 upfront licencing payment in our sector was much higher at $310 million in 2023.
* In the not too distant future we could be waking up to an RNS announcing a licencing deal for SDC-1801. Why would anyone want to miss out on that opportunity?
See the link to the full report on up front payments for licencing deals in our sector in 2023 below...
Good luck, Brighty
https://www.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpmorgan/documents/cb/insights/outlook/jpmorgan-dec-2023-biopharma-licensing-and-venture-report.pdf
Another key point to factor in is that we've not had a negative outcome in any of our research / trials to date.
For example:
* The June 2019 data showed 100% regression of tumours in lung cancer
* The Workman / Garrett March 2020 report showed that SRA 737 when synthesised with gemcitabine had extremely encouraging results
* We've also had the data from the UKRI project which showed that SDC-1801 was superior to the anti-inflammatory steroid dexamethasone and similar to baricitinib. The bull run up to that UKRI announcement in July 2001 saw the SAR share price climb in a few months x 6 from 1.5p (75p now) to over 9p (450p now). I am expecting a similar re-rate on positive P1a data. i.e. x 6 from here is over 150p. That's a x 15 for those that bought in to the 10p WRAP offer. It's possible and we know it's happened before.....
Good luck, Brighty
It's not just licencing deals that interest AZ at the P1 stage. e.g. TeneoTwo was acquired 18 months ago by AZ for its Phase I clinical-stage T-cell engager TNB-486. In summary, AZ paid $100m cash up front for TeneoTwo plus R&D-related milestone payments of up to $805m and additional contingent commercial-related milestone payments of up to $360m. i.e. A total of up to $1.265 billion. There is so much M&A activity these days with phase 1 candidates, both in on-licencing and takeover transactions. Sareum could be next.
AstraZeneca has a track record of buying in to P1 clinical trials, especially once the topline data has been released. Another excellent example is Eccogene who were paid $185m upfront 5 months ago by AstraZeneca. This followed encouraging preliminary results from Eccogene's Phase I trial of ECC5004. In addition, Eccogene could receive up to an additional $1.825bn in future clinical, regulatory, and commercial milestones and tiered royalties on product sales. AZ could swoop in with a licencing deal for SDC-1801 if the preliminary results are good.
Hi Basil - it'd be interesting to know how many drugs developed by large pharma are able to skip P1b, not too many I suspect. I hope news of our intent is spreading through the pharma grapevine and we attract a major as a partner. That would put us firmly on the radar when it comes to 1802.
Most trials are 1 then 2. Think the board originally chose 1a,1b because the value of deals would have been higher with good 1b data. This resulting 2a pivot is another reason I think a licence is inbound. No reason to do a 1b if you have the cash to go straight into 2.
I was under the impression P1a / P1b was a fluid trial same as a 2a / 2b trial, as in if you you stop after P1a for any reason e.g. lack of funds or other reason then you cant restart a P1b at a later date and the only remaining option is a P2a.
Exactly and it's not just AZ signing Phase 1 licencing deals recently. In the last year Eli Lilly paid Confo Therapeutics $40 million US Dollars in an upfront payment for its Phase 1 clinical trial candidate CFTX-1554. As part of the transaction Eli Lilly also agreed a total package of $590 million US Dollars in potential milestone payments and tiered royalties.....
Good luck, Brighty
Afternoon Brighty - I know there have been some good deals in our sector but are we convinced that our current management structure could broker such deals ? ... or possibly have they had a number of offers which would have been accepted by the majority of shareholders but have been rejected as they are holding out for possibly unrealistic higher values ? .. We all know that the comms link is broken / almost non-existent and unfortunately the shareholders currently have no visibility of any of the deal discussions. Personally, based on their poor managerial performance and lack of ownership of the SP crash and RF disaster, or apology to shareholders, I would like to have seen the shareholders getting more visibility of future decisions by the appointment of a nominated shareholder to the BOD discussions under NDA to uphold the interests of the shareholders (given the recent bailout to save the company) .. which is what Dr Owens was supposed to do .. and I say 'supposed to do' as we never heard him voice any concerns regarding consolidation, RF, SP Collapse etc etc
There does need to be change !!! We, the shareholders do need better representation as I do feel the BOD are too weak and poor in all but the science ...
This is only my opinion and much is unknown due to the continued lack of communication from our BOD
I'd say the answer is more nuanced. The Board does have some experienced deal makers in Owen and Parker but I don't think they have done any deals outside or with SAR since joining the board. The other issue is the lack of funds. SAR are always short of funds, it is the nature of being an AIM minnow. It's like having a Royal Flush in poker but not having enough cash to stake yourself in the game. We will always have to blink first. The last factor is the AIM drag. We all know that AIM minnows struggle with fair valuations. We'd probably be valued in the hundreds of millions already on NASDAQ. There is nothing we can do about it now as I'm sure there are many hoops to jump through to get a listing. Now imagine Tim M and Parker rocking into a meeting with some really good 1a data but only enough cash in the bank to see this t
year out and undervalued before even starting negotiations. They know the value of our compounds but beggars can't be choosers. IMO, we'll get a licence with good backend milestones and a decent upfront that is enough to keep the lights on and push 1802 into clinics and hopefully a bit left over so the 1802 negotiations can be more productive. IMO 1801 could be worth up to £800 million in milestones but they will all be p3 and commercialisation. for 1802, depending on the indications we could be looking at double the 1801 milestones. It's all bio bucks until phase 3 but if 737 is in play, then you are looking at 2 billion just for getting to the end of trials. Double or triple that valuation if they get approved for market. I doubt any of us will still be here for that but the market will work out a valuation for us while we wait.
Hi Aber - so what would be the vetting process for this nominated shareholder? How would we trust them with insider knowledge etc.? It's fine if they have a sufficient number of shares (is it 5% or 10% you need to get a seat on the board?) but otherwise what criteria would they need to have - a business degree? Otherwise they may be more of a hindrance than a help.
It would be impossible HBD. They'd be on an NDA, defo no posting here and only through approved channels. So effectively just like the IR person now but holding shares that would have to be declared to market.
My thoughts too, Potnak. Far to difficult to appoint someone, even one of the HNWs would probably shy away from the required scrutiny from us lot.
If Parker gets a hard time on here from LTHs, imagine what an (un)elected punter would get.
HI HBD -- That I could not answer as I have an I.T background and not a Business Background ... but having said that I feel most on this BB would have picked holes in both Consolidation reasons and the RF Fiasco;
I know it is a difficult ask as that person would be under complete NDA and would need a business mind as you state ... but currently I feel that the BOD are not being challenged with any decisions they make and have a free hand to do whatever they like which almost cost TM and JR (and the shareholders) their company ...
Maybe the solution is more communication so that we all get more of an understanding of the direction the BOD are considering ... comms is still the weak point even after shareholders expressed their discomfort during the AGM and we got acknowledgement from the BOD that they needed to make changes .... but have then gone back to their original treatment of shareholders as mushrooms;
For me I just wish to feel safe in the knowledge that we are on track and nothing sinister is going on in the background .. as per some of the conspiracy theories that floated around associating Parker and GSK and PH and RF with a possible destruction of SAR followed by a loan to buy / reverse takeover scenario
But in a nutshell I dont know the best outcome to allow greater consideration by the BOD of shareholders wellbeing.
Unfortunately we no longer have THOTH who had far more knowledge in this space -- I wish I had a better answer for you
Regards Aber
Thanks Aber for the considered response. The closest we may come to having an individual on hand to keep the BoD honest is if any of our HNW chums are able to pick up the phone and contact Tim directly. Surely injecting such large amounts into SAR's coffers buys you some perks such as direct access to the BoD even if they can't tell you anything market sensitive.
Regards.
How do we know, HBD, that our hero and saviour, B-Bunter, does not have - and reasonably - just such access to the BoD? The last thing he could do is to say so, otherwise his positive comments here would be taken as release of privileged information. Let us hope that it is so, but absolutely do not respond, one way or the other, Bill !
Preyno - You seem to have interpreted my post incorrectly to imply the BoD would give away insider information for another's financial gain (the FCA might have an opinion if that happened) and also assumed that individual would repeat such info on a public forum.
Direct access could simply be used to put across widespread concerns such as, are PH really the right people for the job? Such access would ensure shareholders didn't have to rely on either the BoD seeing their comment here or playing e-mail roulette with the investor relations contact.
A reminder everyone that in 2023 AZ paid an upfront payment of $63m for KYM Bio's Phase I clinical candidate CMG901 and agreed additional milestone development and sales-related payments of up to $1.1bn. It's what we are all here for with SDC-1801, SRA-737 and SDC-1802. i.e. Big pharma pay big bucks for P1 candidates. Sareum's SDC-1801 could be next.
Five months ago AZ also paid another small bio, Eccogene, $185m upfront, following encouraging prelim results of Eccogene's Phase I trial of ECC5004. The deal also included up to $1.825bn in future clinical, regulatory plus commercial milestones and tiered royalties on product sales. That would do nicely! i.e. AZ (Or ANother such as GSK or J&J) could swoop in with a licencing deal for SDC-1801 if the preliminary results are good. The clock is ticking.
There is no reason as to why the results should not be very good.
Indicative so far in the RNS that "potentially no serious adverse events.'
That should give a close a clue as you will get as to the final expectation of results 1a data.
Nice blue sky and nice blue rise, it we still sit very low with regards to SP. Market Cap around 31 million.
Should RF not have any shares left, then a gradual climb north next week should be on the cards.
Regards and a good weekend to all.
Yes and it's worth pointing out to the uninitiated that BIG gains happen in the pharma sector. We know that because SAR has already gone up x 46 before. That’s a fact.
If the data is positive it will start the firing gun for big pharma to do a licencing deal. At that stage our share price will then rocket.
You only have to see what happened to a similar bombed out share price with Tempest Therapeutics to see what’s possible. They had dropped to an all-time low (just like Sareum) and then positive data was revealed that saw the share price surge by x 39 in 1 week last September. That’s a fact. Have a great weekend.
It's the “Patent Cliffs" that investors should be getting excited about. The one to keep an eye on is Stelara, which has annual sales of over $7.5 billion and targets psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis and Crohn’s disease. Its patent appears be expiring in the next 2 years. This is great news for Sareum, as SDC1801 is aimed at psoriasis (& other diseases). It's why many of us have been topping up with more SAR shares at these bargain basement prices over the last few weeks....
Good luck, Brighty
And a very nice fact indeed Basil 👍
Here's to hoping a bidding war over 1801 escalates into an all out takeover melee. I could do with just waking up to a 2 billion offer or something, honestly.
Is that even possible post a phase 1 trial. A few more weeks to go folks. Anyone heard from RMM?