focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Up trying to av down it's like trying to catch falling knife
We are all confident of a successful outcome in the testing down under although no data has been released
What I find difficult to understand is that the directors must have a feel for how everything is progressing yet have not stepped forward with any personal share purchases.
With the share price now so depressed, would this not be seen as a sign of confidence in the company?
Didn't think I'd ever see it at this low level again. Very disappointed that my prediction of a 40p mid price by today has been hit
I just wonder where this will end. My bet is 25p the old floor that held for so long of .005p .
GLAGLTH - I think we need it!
The hell didn't go for finance when sp up round £3, we wouldn't be here now with this other funding crap, very poorly done if u ask me.
Rgds
Ray
They use H rather than Q as it gives them longer between deadline failures ... FKIN Useless Management ... but the science is BRILL
Well Potnak, whatever transpires we need to get a move on. SP down another 7.5% this morning making over 40% in the 28 days since the blip following news of the 737 licensing. News expected "in H1" (other companies work in Q's) which still has over 4 months to go-do the maths if this trend continues!!!
* apologies for poor typing !!
Hi potnak
Given the current pathway being taken and the aim to license out 1801, my understanding would then to be getting 1802
into clinic - I'm not sure Tim and John would have the appetite to work on someone else's compound and even be able to raise the funding needed, especially as you state a potential low upfront payment against 1801 - be interested if you have any further view on such, cheers.
GLA
All we can really say, is if they did sell, they lost a lot of money. I seem to recall someone here who went to the AGM, meeting one of them? We have a good idea who they were because some of us have saw a bloomberg screen with their names on.
Can I check what happened to the investment made by the HNWI at around 4.5p old money. Are they still invested ?
I still stand by my prediction of a 2 billion valuation at the end of p2. This is based on 737 still in trials, 1801 successfully completing P2 and 1802 in phase 1. However, we will need some serious investment to fund the trial, development and day to day running of the business. The current state of the markets will reduce the Boards options. For 1801, Personally, I think they will go for a licence and it will be low upfront with large backend milestones with an option to take 1802 if it passes phase 1. This scenario might delay that 2 billion valuation until phase 3 is well underway. In the meantime, whilst we wait, I think SAR will licence a compound from another bio with a view to taking into phase 1 and 2. Just like Sierra did with Momelotinib. It might not be what we want but once 1801 is licenced, then our path to market is set.
Buyout valuations will be much lower until phase 2 is done. Ahfam had a list of deals made but was always a bit vague about where the company was in terms of development. When you looked at them, the big ones were nearly always phase two assets.
We talk about the science all the time here but very rarely talk about valuations of phase 1 assets. There are past deals we can compare against but it would need the corporate finance guys here to give some opinions.
I wonder if the blue ink ribbon has run out once again as my £742 buy is a lovely shade of red
Hi Damion interesting thoughts and I would add a topic not often spoke on the bb - "succession plan".
At the '22 AGM is was part of the formal Q&A and confirmed by the BoD it had been discussed, again post '23 AGM it was an informal discussion among some and SP and stated it still was part of the Company discussions - now whilst there's no detail of who, when and/or how, it suggests to me that there is a target for either Tim or John and/or both and I presume 9p (old money) hadn't reached it - conjecture? yes I know, so please read above for what it is!
GLA
With a MK Cap now below £30m Sareum is at a much higher risk of a low ball T/O offer coming in at 3 / 4 x the current SP. The Market will re value Sar with the P1a data and not forgetting no value has been given to SRA737 until the Market gets sight of the forward plans Financing /Trial design / Indications etc.
If you have followed Sar over the years and listened to the Bod you will understand that they believe the current trial is the best route for a potential large payday and not a small upfront. They could stop at the end of P1a with a P2 ready TYk2 and wait for a license deal to arise but the sums wouldn’t be anywhere near what can be achieved at the end of P1b.
Based on the current MK Cap right now Sareum is a buy for me and in the coming weeks and month’s sentiment will change and the herd will arrive.
Value proposition: SRA737 P3 Ready / SDC-1801 nearly P2 Ready / SDC-1802 nearly P1 ready administered straight to cancer patients.
I meant 1b to be completed.
I think in the short term, SAR will not be affected by their exposure to RF as we should already have enough cash to complete P1b but come the end of 2024 when P1a is due to be completed if there is no licence then we will find it extremely hard to raise further cash. It could be a blessing in disguise though. If they can't meet contractual agreements, that would probably mean we could get out of the contract early.
From RGO's trading update at the end of Jan - https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/RGO/trading-update-t4yqiwq8p2ymtkv.html
"We are disappointed with how some of our investments have performed in recent months, which has clearly been exacerbated by the general difficulties in financial markets and the economy as a whole. Against this background, RGO has continued to continue to maintain a prudent cash balance."
What none of us know is how many SAR shares RF have sold. For all we know it's been one or more large holders selling off which has knackered our sp. Unless the BoD can tell us exactly the state of play then we're reduced to squabbling over what if's.
If RF are basically just a loan shark, who lends to them if they don't have the cash to meet their contracted liabilities?!
An opposite view, would be. If you had the upmost confidence in Sareum, you should probably buy RF shares too. If we 10 bag from here, so does RF's holding in SAR. They probably hold enough, with the warrants to make a profit bigger than their current market cap.
At the risk of trolling the board and unleashing the "you have an agenda trope". I guess what you are saying is RF aren't very good at backing winners?
LoL. But serious. They better di the math.
It seems that RGO.LSE is having as tough a time as Sareum is, judging from its share price destruction over the last 12 months, mainly as a result of disappointing Investments. Share price has dropped from 0.8p to 0,3p in 12 months. NAV has just dropped to 1p so the share price is trading at a significant discount. M/V is now just over 2M
Just wondering what the position would be with Sareum if there was a further deterioration in RGO’s fortunes. Not sure how much finance has been committed to the companies they have lent to but I know Sareum has £5M agreed
I have been a shareholder here since 2012, and hope that the science will come good and that all investors will be appropriately rewarded.
I still believe that the directors should have tried a capital raise from shareholders rather than a loan facility from RGO which has led to a substantial reduction in our M/V
They don't want them tried selling up 😬
The later BOD draw down the 3rd RF deposit this month the greater dilution might be and RF gain on investor ground thus on number of votes.
RNS tomorrow don't you think?
".....with the right............ management/marketing of the science, investment and value "
Parker et al please note
Evidence or jog on