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As I see it the company has about £20m of secured rather than unsecured liabilities including the Abundance bonds, although the exact terms of those bonds would need to be seen. They also have Meygen phase 1 which cost them £60m+ and is now generating more successfully than it has for some years with perhaps another ten years of guaranteed income, the remaining possibilities at Uskmouth, and the commitment to the next phase of Meygen, which no doubt could be retained if the company went bang and was bought out by a financially sound company.
In those circumstances there has to be a possibility that the bondholders will think they have a better chance of recovering their investment by refusing to accept the SAE request. So this may be a close run decision.
Don't want to jinx it but it should be a nobrainer. Would anybody even get anything if the company goes bust? There's not a lot to get at this point but if BESS and CfDs succeed, there will be revenue.
Now the www-website changed from Pellets to SUSTAINABLE ENERGY PARKS. Good sign.
That everything goes well with Abundance 🍀
Lover?
I think I'll quickly buy the poster "I want to believe" from the movie "The X-Files". 😀
Good point.
We should hear from Proteus a little more. Not sure if SAE has access to information and is allowed to publish anything relevant to the market.
BESS + tidal does sound interesting as the energy produced at night can be stored for the next day on which the sun isn't shining and the wind not blowing. Tidal has got your back there.
The next best thing might be hydrogen production but perhaps that's a whole different story.
Totally agree mister tidal.
The 22 December is pivotal for the company.
The actual document I have read for the first time actually seems realistic in today's economic and financial status.
If the vote is yes to abundance until 2029 then I think they have the runway to get things really going and when we are talking 1gw of BESS that is no mean feat.
Then add in tidal array (funding still an obstacle) with a better price at the next CFD and I think a bigger jump in MWs given to SAE.
Then we are actually seeing green shoots of promise from SAE.
Long way to go but this could be the turning point.
If we can also get more info about the use of the new turbines that are 3mw the again improved technology and bigger power generation per turbine is all a big plus. Not heard much from Proteus yet which we do need more Comms from given the stake SAE have with them.
Then we have the first BESS at meygen and no doubt there could be more...
I am sure they will have learned lessons from Meygen ref 4 turbines over the past years.
Then they will have the knowledge of BESS.
Link those 2 together and get the tidal array working and generating energy at Meygen with the BESS alongside then the revenue will start to be generated.
Fingers crossed.
While this sounds terrifying, it's also absolutely terrifying.
But jokes set aside, as bad as it sounds, it's probably some partial if not the explanation for why the stock does not really move.
That being said.. it might be fair to assume that, should the company survive the vote on the 22nd of December this year, things could change.
I'll admit that these interest rates are worrying at best but what comforts me a tiny bit at this point is the fact that we have seen some good will from a director buying a year's salary in stock and that the C-suite does have long term incentives in form of options.
Based on that we may assume that they're working to the best of their abilities and to be fair, tidal stream energy didn't by far receive the governmental support it should have in the last decade whereas we're heading to 50MW right now.
Thanks @altolusso, good idea.
https://saerenewables.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2023_12_01_SIMECAtlantisEnergy_proposal_final-draft-002.pdf
"We do appreciate that these new extension requests may not be welcome, but since we do not expect to have the
funds needed to repay all debentures on the current maturities in 2024, we are at high risk of going into default
and then into administration."
The proposal to bondholders is to agree to a 5 year extension to their bonds or risk losing their premium. Given that Hobson's choice I'd expect existing bondholders to reluctantly agree to this, but who knows. More concerning is the chilling effect this might have on potential future investment.
Suggest you read the message sent to the bondholders - it is a little more scary
Well no wonder share prices are stuck when you have idiots like the 191k who paid 1.48p yesterday and has just sold for 1.1p. The market is full of these impatient idiots and the mm's feed off them
Welcome to SAE
Ask the LTHs
Ignore those little trades they seem to be codes or go through when a mm moves on L2.
Horrible monitor spread 1.05-1.3p but online is much better 1.1-1.195p, I still cannot accept this is under 1.5p after the recent news and how quiet it is for now
Finances are now much improved, whilst outlook for tidal and Bess is strong.
A reassuring RNS indeed.
I'm just wondering who trades 100 to 1000 shares. Here in Austria the fees are higher than the share value
Was to be expected. I'm still very happy with the RNS ✌️
My average is 7.7, so I’ve a lot further to go
Even if there is a takeover bid, it will hardly be at a multiple of seven times the current price!
I'll be relieved when the SP reaches 3p (my average) and happy when it reaches double figures! Still a long long way to go...
Well, if we're all happy then I guess I shall be happy too. 😅
Let's see if this marks some turning point for their market capitalization and that it improves their long term perspective. Really looking forward to their announcement for the implementation of their first CfD and let's keep our fingers crossed for another ring fenced budget in AR6!
All looks good to me.
That it's £10m now but without owning the land 31 years from now really doesn't bother me too much. Very little disappointment that it is a small amount under the £11.8m for securitising the revenue that SAE once floated, but hard to moan in current market conditions. As mentioned it is only phase 1 of the BESS and the update on a BESS at Meygen is more exciting than losing a small amount of land that was tied up for the next three decades anyway.
It is not a bad offer they are putting to Abundance investors and I guess it would be accepted, meaning no liability headaches for a long time if the vote goes as we'd want. An increase in interest payment, repayment of capital starting earlier, and incentive for SAE to repay sooner or incur higher rates, is all reassuring. Continuing to receive 10% p/a or risk your investment going into default would seem a no-brainer imo.
Nice to see some Q2 certainty on turbine 4 going back under. Think bids for next tidal auction round open in March at the new strike price, with successful bids announced early Q3, so good things up in Scotland too. Initial market reaction seems of similar view. Also happy to have RNS and Abundance comms harmonised. Increasingly professional.
Mister Tidal it depends on which Route SAE take the initial contract with Quinbrook was £40m over 30 years for 230mw.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SAE/sae-achieves-milestone-in-bess-project-delivery-bn5pkfgzvj1hrt3.html