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Annual Report due any day soon with the directors talk interview already filmed
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7204466904701251585
Hopefully this year they will be on time along with company updates .
My point was ........nothing is "to big to fail " if a government is involved.
We are all just speculating here, but I'm not sure that Carillion has much relevance to SAE. In the context of a Labour Government in Westminster (creating an Energy investment vehicle in the shape of GB Energy, which it suggests would be based in Scotland) and the competing battle for votes in Scotland between Labour and SNP, it seems likely that any risk to UK's tidal generation development would result in both parties trying to outcompete each other to be seen as the "saviours" of the operation. In some respects, Ferguson Marine and Prestwick Airport might be more relevant comparisons.
They said Carrilion was to big to fail and look what happened. The country was left with half built hospitals an incomplete prison, railways in all sorts of engineering trouble and householders in social housing unable to use their boilers through lack of safety certificates. This project is just a likely to be left out to dry.
I'm not sure SAE stand to gain much from the fund as such, but I think SAE (and the Maygen project in particular ) is politically important to both Labour and SNP. In some ways it is "too big to fail" in political terms, which gives it an interesting status that is difficult to value in cash terms. I also reckon that Labour will be under lots of pressure to be supportive to a range of marginal industries and to utilise the "freedoms" of Brexit to provide support that might otherwise have breached State Aid rules. Whether any of that is of benefit to shareholders remains to be seen, as it is entirely possible that state support is provided in return for a share issue and Government taking a stake.
Is there a reasonable ground to think Labour will up this figure if they get into government. Considering the original figure, they touted was about £28 billion. The figure of £8.3 billion isn't that much, when you consider other technologies, we would have to compete with.
Started: munin, 18 Jun 2024 09:31
Last post: Pask, 18 Jun 2024 10:36
Cheers. Yeah, what you said is reasonable. I'm just paranoid based on past performance.
SAE received money recently for uskmouth and meygen has been generating revenue for the last year so i would hope they have a war chest for contingencies like this. chartering a vessel is expensive so it makes sense to do two operations at the same time if they can.
Will they have sufficent funds to do both? Or will the payments they recieve go to other things?
Drop in output from 975 MWh in April to 664 MWh in May. consistent with one turbine or cable going out of commission. if so we might see remedial work or a turbine recovery alongside the proteus turbine deployment in the next few weeks (Q2 2024 according to the RNS from 5.12.23).
Started: Pask, 13 Jun 2024 14:17
Last post: Pask, 13 Jun 2024 16:41
"GB Energy will be able to invest in and deliver projects to provide additional investment alongside the private sector. Its initial priority will be to co-invest in leading edge energy technologies where this can de-risk and unlock private sector investment."
"As Britain becomes a clean energy superpower, there are a number of emerging energy technologies
that will require patient, long-term co-investment.
Examples of this might include the emerging green hydrogen, offshore floating wind or tidal industries,
where there could be an important role for GBE to co-invest in research and development and
production and share the equity benefits of the UK’s export potential."
Source: https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Make-Britain-a-Clean-Energy-Superpower.pdf
Will it be good for SAE?
It will be run by civil servants, so it will be an absolute disaster. Our grandchildren will be paying for this white elephant
To be honest, there isn't anything in here that wasn't already known. But it does seem that this will be there plan going forward. Seems similiar to the 2019 manifesto IMO, not that I'm complaining. Just wish they would have got there sh*t together 5 years ago, instead of infighting. I hate politics.
Continued:
"To drive forward investment in clean, home-grown energy production, Labour will create a new publicly-owned company, Great British Energy. It will be owned by the British people and deliver power back to the British people.
Great British Energy will partner with industry and trade unions to deliver clean power by co-investing in leading technologies; will help support capital-intensive projects; and will deploy local energy production to benefit communities across the country. To support this, Labour will capitalise Great British Energy with £8.3 billion, over the next parliament.
The company will create jobs and build supply chains in every corner of the UK. Scotland will be the powerhouse of our clean energy mission, with Great British Energy headquartered there.
Local power generation is an essential part of the energy mix and reduces pressures on the transmission grid. Labour will deploy more distributed production capacity through our Local Power Plan. Great British Energy will partner with energy companies, local authorities, and co-operatives to install thousands of clean power projects, through a combination of onshore wind, solar, and hydropower projects. We will invite communities to come forward with projects, and work with local leaders and devolved governments to ensure local people benefit directly from this energy production."
Started: Timaeus, 11 Jun 2024 14:47
Last post: oldtramp, 12 Jun 2024 17:58
Best part of the RNS for me was
“ allow for expansion using 4-hour duration batteries of up to 300MW/1.2GWh. “
4 hour duration would also have a big financial gain for Uskmouth too.
Looking forward to podcast to learn more.
Here we go. 50k new shares for me.
Good luck to you too, of course 🙂
@Mehmet
Like I said. I'm not complaining. Averages down to 4 GBX. Still deep red of course but SAE will surpass this if things go well for sure.
Just could've been a 3GBX on my end. Invested €17k so far.
.... 2 years ago in the region of...
Started: Timaeus, 11 Jun 2024 14:43
Last post: Timaeus, 11 Jun 2024 14:43
So, another planning application. Fine. 2 hours? Nice statement of confidence that MeyGen will one day be a source of constant power, even through slack tide.
What’s next? Come the end of this month publication is due of SAE’s annual report and accounts for the period to 31 Dec 23, and the 4th turbine should be back in the water. SAE described the re-deployment as being on track, as at Dec 2023 - when they also said the delivery of the next 50MW at MeyGen “remains hugely challenging”.
SAE likes milestones. They must by now have at least in draft a minutely detailed business plan that sets out month by month, if not week by week, the precise sequence of events required to achieve the 2027 target for 28MW at MeyGen. And then the 2028 target for a further 22MW.
Financial closure for Phase II is scheduled for Q2 2025 ie within a year (give or take), and arguably already the greatest milestone on SAE’s near horizon. So, how is any big potential backer to assess, over the coming months, whether investing will generate worthwhile returns? They might start by looking at the detailed costings and revenue projections SAE and their financial advisers must be getting well-polished and ready to present. In all probability private equity backed the Proteus management buyout in the belief their investment would make returns within about 5 years. SAE might these days see themselves as a pure play project developer, but they should not – nay, must not – allow themselves to be talked into giving away the MeyGen farm just to ensure 28MW or even 50MW actually happens.
Then there are some small matters like identifying who is going to build and own the 3MW turbines. Yes, it would be fitting if they could be built in Scotland by Proteus, even if that just means final assembly of parts manufactured all over the place. But where are the heads of agreement about that beyond the adoption of an alliance contracting model for MeyGen? Has anyone seen any signs of Proteus expanding its operations at Nigg or tooling up to deliver 9 x 3MW turbines to MeyGen in 2027 while continuing to service the 4 existing 1.5MW turbines? Remember, Mr Black said almost a year ago that the sector “needs well capitalised tidal turbine suppliers that can provide large turbine orders backed by the required warranties, which the Group is not able to provide given its financial position.”
Started: Tidal_lover, 11 Jun 2024 12:00
Last post: SARS, 11 Jun 2024 13:45
My purchase of 50000 shares shows as a sell
Excellent progress
Very good rns!! Our own power generation , our own battery storage site, or own profit when we sell that too. Global domination is coming. The future is SAE!
Agree: great news
👍
Started: Geng, 6 Jun 2024 12:21
Last post: mister_tidal, 8 Jun 2024 06:44
Would be nice if those asks went through..
I might be able to see that later when I've had a skin full and don my beer goggles.
Started: oldtramp, 7 Jun 2024 10:18
Last post: oldtramp, 7 Jun 2024 14:00
😂 @ stangy I tried too but had same problem.
Tried to zoom in on the strategy but can't make out what it says...
It would appear we are due for an update soon !
https://x.com/saerenewables/status/1798701985665069090
This is also of interest just popped up on LinkedIn
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/ugcPost:7204411377107611649?trk=organization_guest_main-feed-card_social-actions-reactions
A bit more in-depth here
https://modoenergy.com/research/battery-tolling-announced-gresham-house-octopus-energy-june-2024?utm_source=linkedin_personal&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=05.06.2024&trk=feed_main-feed-card_comment-text
As you say, oldtramp, a good article all round for tidal energy
Good article below Meygen gets mentioned.
https://www.energyvoice.com/renewables-energy-transition/wind/uk-wind/554693/labour-says-scotlands-wave-energy-potential-being-squandered-by-holyrood-and-westminster/
Started: mister_tidal, 29 May 2024 10:42
Last post: mister_tidal, 3 Jun 2024 19:33
I wonder if we'll ever get back some analyst coverage. Atm no estimates at all. Id really like to know what a generic target price would be.
Not sure what earns a company to get some coverage
My averaged down purchase price is 7.7 so now down 88%
I’m still holding in the hope that things will get better
We do have some good operations and if we could get the manufacturing price down current operations should make a financial return
Also, fossil fuel companies are looking for diversifying and we could be on their radar
And we’ve still got Uskmouth
You're still less foolhardy than me. Granted, I just don't care anymore. It's money I can lose.
I'm constantly between averaging down and leave it be. My average is €0.04 vs €0.013 share price...
It's a €15k hole for me at the moment that brought down my entire portfolio 😅
Niether do I.
Started: Tidal_lover, 28 May 2024 08:53
Last post: mister_tidal, 28 May 2024 17:41
This is the interesting part imo: if 230MW gets you £10m, then you'd get Ober £40m for 1GW.
That's over £40m vs £52m of debt.
Means.. If SAE is able to lower operating costs s.t. they can cover the remaining (less than) £12m, then we can consider the company as soon-to-be profitable.
Add CfDs and the potential of lowering cost, and the company might be insanely under-valued at the moment.
So.. why are we still only at 1GBX?
Another positive RNS chaps 👍
Good to see that some money is coming in again. BESS was a good idea.
Started: mister_tidal, 27 May 2024 10:50
Last post: Strangy83, 28 May 2024 07:36
In the grand scheme of things it is not.
There are lots more in-roads to gain more economical traction.
We need all the turbines in the water.
We need more news about Bess Usk.
More about the tidal phase 2 array. How this will happen the 3mw roll out of turbines.
Data centre and Bess at Meygen.
Investment and later in the year CFD info for Meygen phase 3.
Also the plan for Meygen 2 and how this is to be fund d and general funding for the future arrays.
So yes very good news but given the abundance bonuses shareholders deserve a lot more in coming months.
Strangy,
LOL! Its a bit more than minor!
Its over 80% of our mcap!
jr
So we get some minor good news which lets hope is the start of a good news period...
I have not seen any announcements but I think all of the recent rounds have followed the longest timeline so I do not expect we’ll find out until september or october
Would be nice although there's still some things that could delay the reveal of the winners of the CfD.
Let's see. I think we can expect SAE another slice of the pie. It's just a pitty that it's not a larger budget but still.. slowly but surely these contracts add up
Started: oldtramp, 26 May 2024 12:36
Last post: Tm58, 26 May 2024 14:03
Thanks OT.That makes sense, especially in conjunction with BESS. Looks like a variety of options for revenue are being investigated.
I seem to remember another option for an underwater data centre was looked into years ago but nothing came of it I assume too difficult/expensive to achieve.
MeyGen
Going by the other investment opportunities this is new
Description: MeyGen site is a data centre development scheme promoted by Simec Atlantis Energy Ltd (SAE) and being developed to utilise more reliable, predictable power from tidal generation
Investment Type: Renewable energy, data centre
Landowner: Simec Atlantis Energy Ltd (SAE)
Location: 20+ ha of land on the north coast, Caithness
Status: Currently a greenfield site
Timescales: Short term
https://investhighland.com/investment/data-centers/
Last post: mister_tidal, 24 May 2024 12:21
TL: What do you mean? GPTs market cap estimate is £36m to £81m. That's a 7.1 GBX to 16 GBX price target range.
Not that I would consider GPTs reasoning as reasonable 😅
Well if Labour gets in then there could be a possible upturn with GBE located in Scotland..
Mr t: there is a lot of talk without saying anything
I don't need an opinion if I can a ChatGPT 😂
Estimating the market capitalization (market cap) of Simec Atlantis Energy (SAE) based on the positive implications of the Uskmouth battery storage project involves several factors:
1. **Revenue Potential**: The 230MW battery storage facility could generate significant revenue once operational. Battery storage facilities can have high returns due to the increasing demand for grid stability and renewable energy support.
2. **Investor Sentiment**: Successful transition to renewable energy projects often leads to improved investor sentiment. If SAE can demonstrate progress and potential profitability from the Uskmouth project, it could attract more investors.
3. **Debt Management**: Revenue from the project could help SAE manage its £60 million debt more effectively. Improved debt management would reduce financial risk and potentially increase market valuation.
4. **Market Comparisons**: Comparing SAE to similar companies in the renewable energy sector that have successfully transitioned from traditional energy sources to renewables can provide a benchmark for potential market cap growth.
Given these factors, if we assume the project significantly boosts SAE’s revenue and improves its financial stability, we could see a substantial increase in its market cap.
### Hypothetical Market Cap Calculation:
1. **Current Market Cap**: £6 million
2. **Revenue Impact**: Suppose the battery storage project could bring in an annual revenue of around £10-£15 million once fully operational, which is a conservative estimate for a 230MW facility.
3. **Valuation Multiples**: Renewable energy companies often trade at higher revenue multiples due to growth potential. A multiple of 3-5 times revenue is common for such projects.
#### Potential Increase in Market Cap:
- If the project adds £10-£15 million in annual revenue, and we apply a multiple of 3-5 times this revenue:
- Revenue Impact: £10 million * 3 = £30 million to £15 million * 5 = £75 million
- Adding this to the current market cap: £6 million + £30 million to £75 million = £36 million to £81 million
Thus, **SAE’s market cap** could potentially rise to the range of **£36 million to £81 million**, assuming the project meets its revenue projections and positively influences investor sentiment.
### Important Considerations:
- This estimate assumes successful project execution and revenue generation.
- Market sentiment and other external factors like regulatory changes, competition, and broader market conditions will also play crucial roles.
- These are hypothetical estimates and actual market cap can vary.
In summary, the Uskmouth battery storage project has the potential to significantly improve SAE's market cap, potentially increasing it to between £36 million and £81 million, contingent on successful implementation and positive market reception.
Did also find this Mr T probably best to make your own conclusion
“Furthermore, the vendor and tenant have secured an additional capacity of 120MW which will trigger a pro-rata rental increase upon the date additional capacity is made available at the site”
https://news.cbre.co.uk/cbre-advises-on-battery-storage-site-acquisition/
Started: mister_tidal, 22 May 2024 15:17
Last post: TRBob, 23 May 2024 17:10
Thank you both, Tm I hope that you get your money back and see some profit.
PHE have got their uk patent and awaiting European. A company was objecting but that has been dealt with.
They also have a kiln en route from China. Due to arrive next month. The kiln is the heart of the process but other parts also perform the magic and are awaiting the kiln. The whole setup should be running this year.
They also announced an agreement with h2 in Australia not very long ago. Hoping things will move on this one as still 50% down.
In a nutshell they've come to an agreement over patent argument.
I used to hold shares in them, could have made an absolute killing end of 2020/early 2021 (as with most of the riskier parts of my portfolio, ah hindsight) but decided to hold, then later sold at a considerably less profit, but still a profit before it really tanked thankfully.
If you have time, what is happening with them now? I'm not in a position to invest in anything risky atm though.
Anybody watching that stock? From zero two hero. That's what I hope to happen with SAE at some point..
Started: Phyl, 21 May 2024 14:55
Last post: mister_tidal, 22 May 2024 23:32
Thanks OT :)
Could be be publicly available in a couple of days Mr T will keep an eye out .
Thanks yet again Phyl for pointing it out 👍
Is there a protocol or something? Would like to know what was said.
No worries Old Tramp. I see Graham Reid's spreading the good word over at Parliament. Here's the link...
https://x.com/saerenewables/status/1793285173594779769?t=ncouwLM1ljh50Sh1lVkkpQ&s=19
Thanks for posting that Phyl looks like phase 2 (The cooling towers ) is moving at pace will be good to hear from the company in regards to the plan ie freehold sale or lease ?
Started: munin, 17 May 2024 10:36
Last post: Wenglishboy, 21 May 2024 13:30
My position is I'm in, locked in and holding tight. Ever since the USK issue, we have had good news yet the SP fails to react for some reason. I would like to add but the BODs lack of Comms does slightly bother me on this one. I know it's not detrimental to the business but it certainly holds back confidence. All need released since USK had been positive but the company and the PI are not projecting it all so I'm a little confused with this share.
Wenglish has been here year prior to Usk like me....
What's your position, if the question is allowed?
It would be good to see them position the Proteus ones as part of the array and then revive if needs be the others.
I personally think we are at the part of longevity testing as opposed to the R&D of peak performance stats. Surely they have learned enough to start placing in addition rather than replacing.
Pretty new here so please excuse my ignorance.
Figures just out for April, performance over the last year below.
Output from the three Andritz turbines hit 37MWh/day in September last year and appears to have levelled off at 31MWh/day. Great to see such consistent performance and hopefully they can start repaying some debt. It will be interesting to see if they remove any of the Andritz turbines when they redeploy the Proteus one.
May 23 - 1021 MWh - Two Andritz and one Proteus turbine deployed
Jun 23 - 1102 MWh - Proteus turbine removed, Andritz turbine redeployed
Jul 23 - 946 MWh - Three Andritz turbines deployed
Aug 23 - 1018 MWh
Sep 23 - 1146 MWh
Oct 23 - 987 MWh
Nov 23 - 957 MWh
Dec 23 - 899 MWh
Jan 24 - 973 MWh
Feb 24 - 873 MWh
Mar 24 - 972 MWh
Apr 24 - 975 MWh
Started: mister_tidal, 17 May 2024 22:04
Last post: mister_tidal, 18 May 2024 14:01
Last year's CfD does not even list wave energy.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/64fa0473fdc5d10014fce820/cfd-ar5-results.pdf
My question is if $75/MWh is just an exaggeration or a lie, or if that's a true statement.
Wouldn't be ideal if wave is able to compete in CfD auctions given the already rather modest ring fenced budget.
Did wave just overtake tidal stream?
https://youtu.be/3X2PqKKPb48?si=qM9t0LpbmXdoqnYm
Last post: mister_tidal, 16 May 2024 21:56
I'm not sure why I bought 45k shares this week
Orbital arriving at Nigg is very interesting imo. Remember there was the past potential collaboration with Nova at Meygen. At the end of the day Meygen has to supply tidal power but can be agnostic on which turbines are used, or what mixture of turbines. Whatever happens there have to be synergies from being this close. Promising.
Let’s hope so JD I found the quote from the Ocean energy stats 23 very relevant.
“ In the UK last year, 94% of tidal stream generation came from the MeyGen site, an amazing achievement!! ”
Link to the report in case anyone can’t access LinkedIn.
https://www.oceanenergy-europe.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Ocean-Energy-Stats-and-Trends-2023.pdf?trk=organization_guest_main-feed-card_feed-article-content
Maybe they've finally appointed someone to a comms post?
A flurry of posts on SAE LinkedIn page in the last week.
https://www.linkedin.com/company/saerenewables?trk=feed-detail_main-feed-card_reshare_feed-actor-name
Started: Timaeus, 8 May 2024 16:47
Last post: Strangy83, 11 May 2024 18:46
TL.
You just keep adding caveats that fit your investment.
This is not bad as this is linked, but the continual links do not in most occasions make a blind bit of difference.
Facts and proof along with financial backing and a business plan that includes investment is key.
But these are the facts. Over a decade of articles like this have brought us to celebrate deployments below 100MW. We need 10-times that, 1GW to go below £100/MWh although today, thanks to inflation, we need more than that.
Until we see actual commitment and money driving significant deployments all this is is more of the same.
Yes, we got CfDs now but we also sold the tidal division for £0.5m which is something we don't want to forget here. Perhaps SAE was forced to do so but let's just keep that in mind.
I'm not trying to convince you of anything here. I care the same if you will, but it just has to be said that there's plenty of material that state the exact same. Growing interest, huge potential and what not. What's missing is the money to make it a reality.
I don't care what Mr. @strangy and @mister-tidal say.
I agree.
Just seems to be repeat and rinse all the time.
Roses tinted glasses???
But that has been on the website for some time.
I am not sure if this is significant
https://saerenewables.com/fraud-alert/
but something to be aware of
Started: mister_tidal, 7 May 2024 12:51
Last post: Strangy83, 7 May 2024 18:12
Get with the programme it's been like that since CEO talked crap about updates every month.
Abysmally poor.
.. how it's just not getting up.
Don't get me wrong, there's currently nothing really to expect I guess. But I'm still disappointed. Or impatient?
Regular monthly updates would still be nice. I find it hard to believe that there is nothing to report. Really?
Started: noisyboy9, 4 May 2024 09:40
Last post: noisyboy9, 4 May 2024 09:40
Figures for Meygen for Q1
Jan 24 - 973 MWH
Feb 24 - 873 MWH
Mar 24 - 972 MWH
Started: SARS, 2 May 2024 08:23
Last post: Mehmet66, 2 May 2024 19:38
Nice news - also from what I remember of an old Abundance presentation the Meygen BESS application is at least as advanced as those at Usk. Interesting that the market would place so much value on it but I guess a power source paired to a storage system that can sell at optimal prices is a pretty strong proposition.
https://mandrillapp.com/track/click/30759003/*********************?p=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
summary of potential changes to zonal pricing for electricity mentions sae as one likely beneficiary:
varied exposure for listed companies in our coverage universe we see drax group* (drx ln) benefitting through its cruachan pumped storage unit, simec atlantis* (sae ln) through potential for battery storage in caithness and nextenergy solar fund* (nesf ln) through new subsidy-free solar as well as its existing assets. we also see sse (sse ln) benefiting from its pumped storage asset at foyers and its gas assets benefiting from a weighting towards southern zones. centrica (cna ln) is exposed through its share in the uk’s legacy nuclear assets which have a mixed exposure due to their locations. the three battery yieldcos, gore street energy storage fund (gse ln), gresham house energy storage fund (grid ln), and harmony energy income trust (heit ln), all have some assets that could benefit locationally but most are weighted towards the middle zones which could see weaker bm income dominating. gore street is less impacted given its international diversification. invinity energy systems* (ies ln) could benefit from regional volatility as it will now invest in uk long duration storage.