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But these are the facts. Over a decade of articles like this have brought us to celebrate deployments below 100MW. We need 10-times that, 1GW to go below £100/MWh although today, thanks to inflation, we need more than that.
Until we see actual commitment and money driving significant deployments all this is is more of the same.
Yes, we got CfDs now but we also sold the tidal division for £0.5m which is something we don't want to forget here. Perhaps SAE was forced to do so but let's just keep that in mind.
I'm not trying to convince you of anything here. I care the same if you will, but it just has to be said that there's plenty of material that state the exact same. Growing interest, huge potential and what not. What's missing is the money to make it a reality.
I don't care what Mr. @strangy and @mister-tidal say.
I agree.
Just seems to be repeat and rinse all the time.
Roses tinted glasses???
Articles and surveys like that are pretty much regulars. I won't even bother to compile a list of such articles because they are easily to find..
Https://www.oceanenergy-europe.eu/ocean-energy-accelerates-towards-commercialisation-in-2023/
We are also 95% under-valued according to Simplywall.st
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/capital-goods/aim-sae/simec-atlantis-energy-shares/valuation
But why am I still not feeling it?
Nice topic raised about how to avoid during MeyGen Phases 2 & 3 the kind of issues identified as limiting turbine power output during Phase 1. Is scaling up just going to mean more issues instead of solutions or are there likely to be advantageous opportunities to raise performance; improve supply chains; reduce costs; keep turbines deployed and turning for longer; and approach break-even point?
Several publications suggest that the sector is evolving an ethos of searching self-appraisal to capture lessons learned:
1. Lessons Learnt from MeyGen Phase 1A - Final Summary Report 2020
https://webassets.bv.com/2020-06/MeyGen%20Lessons%20Learnt%20Full%20Report_0.pdf
2. October 2022 TIGER Report on Cost reduction pathway of tidal stream energy in UK and France
https://interregtiger.com/download/tiger-report-cost-reduction-pathway/
3. Review of Technical Assumptions and Generation Costs Levelised Cost of Electricity from Tidal Stream Energy May 2023
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/655372484ac0e1001277d819/tidal-lcoe-report.pdf/preview
4. June 2023 Policy Report Seizing Sustainable Growth Opportunities from Tidal Stream Energy in the UK
https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Sustainable-Growth-Opportunities-from-Tidal-Stream-Energy-in-the-UK-.pdf
The 2020 report identified many useful lessons from Phase 1A. The TIGER report found 8 drivers that could reduce TSE LCOE by 67.5%. Almost 40% of that reduction “comes from increasing the rotor diameter and rated power which have a compounded effect greater than the sum of the individual innovations.” The May 2023 Review notes that the rate of deployment of low-carbon generation, such as TSE, can… be adversely impacted by focussing too much on driving down LCOE. The June 2023 report repeatedly stresses the need for inter-departmental policy co-ordination on deployment and supply chain development.
A major factor behind delays in servicing re-shored turbines is long lead times for replacement parts. Lead times should shorten as data accumulates about the replacement parts most commonly needed for 3MW turbines being serviced. Perhaps even a lean-production Proteus will hold a few popular spares in stock.
Proteus should already be planning how they could tool up not only to build 100+ 3MW turbines over the next decade but also to service each of them every 5 years or so on a rolling programme. Every ship that sails to recover a turbine to re-shore for servicing should carry one to deploy in its place and, ideally, at least one more intended for first deployment.
But Mr Black was already cheerfully thinking about all that when he wrote last summer about the need for well capitalised turbine suppliers.
But that has been on the website for some time.
I am not sure if this is significant
https://saerenewables.com/fraud-alert/
but something to be aware of
Get with the programme it's been like that since CEO talked crap about updates every month.
Abysmally poor.
.. how it's just not getting up.
Don't get me wrong, there's currently nothing really to expect I guess. But I'm still disappointed. Or impatient?
Regular monthly updates would still be nice. I find it hard to believe that there is nothing to report. Really?
Figures for Meygen for Q1
Jan 24 - 973 MWH
Feb 24 - 873 MWH
Mar 24 - 972 MWH
Nice news - also from what I remember of an old Abundance presentation the Meygen BESS application is at least as advanced as those at Usk. Interesting that the market would place so much value on it but I guess a power source paired to a storage system that can sell at optimal prices is a pretty strong proposition.
https://mandrillapp.com/track/click/30759003/*********************?p=eyjzijoiwjrcvzfwlwhfvfb5rhnfahqwv280oth3c2fniiwidii6mswicci6intcinvcijozmdc1otawmyxcinzcijoxlfwidxjsxci6xcjodhrwczpcxfwvxfxcl3d3dy5yzxnlyxjjac10cmvllmnvbvxcxc9yzxnlyxjjafxcxc9sb25nc3b1ci1jbgvhbi1lbmvyz3lcxfwvcmvtys16b25pbmctaw4tb24tem9uywwtchjpy2luz1xcxc81ov9izdzhntfkns1hm2uzltrlzdatymuxnc1kzjlhntgxmddkmthcxfwvmjyxyzc2ytatmjg4ni00n2nklwi4oditmdy0nmvhyju2ztmyxcisxcjpzfwiolwizjzjmmfkodbjn2uwngixnzlmnmewmtbjzwjhyza3nwrciixcinvybf9pzhncijpbxci1otzhnwm0nzvkmdfjnju4zjfhmdrknguzztyzytm0zmq3ndfhyjmzxcjdfsj9
summary of potential changes to zonal pricing for electricity mentions sae as one likely beneficiary:
varied exposure for listed companies in our coverage universe we see drax group* (drx ln) benefitting through its cruachan pumped storage unit, simec atlantis* (sae ln) through potential for battery storage in caithness and nextenergy solar fund* (nesf ln) through new subsidy-free solar as well as its existing assets. we also see sse (sse ln) benefiting from its pumped storage asset at foyers and its gas assets benefiting from a weighting towards southern zones. centrica (cna ln) is exposed through its share in the uk’s legacy nuclear assets which have a mixed exposure due to their locations. the three battery yieldcos, gore street energy storage fund (gse ln), gresham house energy storage fund (grid ln), and harmony energy income trust (heit ln), all have some assets that could benefit locationally but most are weighted towards the middle zones which could see weaker bm income dominating. gore street is less impacted given its international diversification. invinity energy systems* (ies ln) could benefit from regional volatility as it will now invest in uk long duration storage.
Quite an interesting report on Meygen
https://eandt.theiet.org/2024/03/21/designing-tidal-turbines-are-safe-marine-life
And the winner is TL.
Yes it mentions SAE.
You are still wearing those rose tinted glasses.
Like it or not we are at a crossroads and Proteus have the keys irrespective of what share we have with them
If we don't hear something relating to 3mw turbines for Meygen then we may be dead in the water.
Let's be honest we have struggled to have 3 in the water so having many more creates more issues instead of solutions
On Future Revenue
Don't forget that current turbines are on ROCs and all new turbines will be on CfDs ie
1MW x 365 x 24 x capacity factor x availability x CfD price/MWh x CPI (2012-2024)
and so won't get £1m pa/MW capacity.
That's what my statement implied. I never said this money ceased to exist. But that it may cease to be mine.
Mister tidal I can reassure you, you will not lose your money. It's just that someone else has it 😃
We're below £6m. It's pretty obvious that there's no demand for this stock and at this price... it's also kinda obvious that institutions don't care about this company.
As I've suggested in the past.. there's probably around 1000 people around who own a few shares of SAE.
The good news is that it can't get much lower. I've already accept the fact that it's not unlikely I might lose my money ok this company.
It's in Graham's hands now.
Will CfD money be enough to get this sector going?
actually almost all of those entities are stockbrokers holding private investors shares, apart from simec who took half of the original atlantis in exchange for a half ****d plan and a disused coal fired power station, and morgan stanley who provided seed capital to atlantis, iirc. i believe the only "voluntary" institutional investor on that list is janus henderson.
A lot of that list act as broker's so still held by retail investors.