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Always the possibility that Hester will do a kitchen sink job when he gets his feet under the table and sees the full picture, as he did soon after joining RBS. Might be further to go imo.
Well as an insurer, with the worst weather for XX in the news sentiment will always be against it. What is the value though? You right it getting cheaper but its when its below its value it becomes a bargain. Unfortunately I cant work out a value on this one at present and I am waiting for more details to be announced with the results. If things are not as bad as expected there might be a spike upwards and your "People looking for discounts should load up" will look impressive. Until the amount of capital requirement is known and how they are going to achieve this I see too much downside risk and most likely no divi to wait it out should things take a turn for the worst. I hope for holders that things turn out better but maintain its chances of going lower are too high for me. Watch and wait! Watch and Wait!
Well the price is becoming cheaper and cheaper. People looking for discounts should load up. Although I think more discounting will be available on the days ahead. The rapidity of the discounting is causing me to waver on my short target of 90p. Perhaps I aught to be more ambitious.
If and I stress if, a rights issue did materialise I would be hacked off if as a PI I was excluded from any possible uptake. This is because often they are done at a discount to attract investment. If you are excluded you loose out both ways in that your holdings are diluted and you fail to gain in the opportunity to buy at the discount price. I admit you need to have capital free to partake which some may not have but why should you (Ive sold off recently) dip out. Maybe they might be "advised" to do a retail offering but I would be tempted to turn up at the AGM and have a rant if I was forced to loose out. Calls for heads to roll can get louder, remember as a shareholder your the (part) owner has they work for you. You also get to vote on remuneration and whilst it might not be binding a shareholder revolt has forced other directors to stand down and it sends a clear message. IMO any right issue should benefit all shareholders notwithstanding previous comments about what will happen to the SP inbetween. Not long to find out some meat on those skinny bones!
This is dead in the water as an income stock. Got out on the Ireland news with only a very small profit and parked the money in AZN. I may buy in again, but only after the inevitable price tumble on the rights issue and dilution and only if they make encouraging noises about restoring the divi. Also the longer these storms go on (and it could be another month or two) the worse non-life insurance business looks. As stated before RSA do not have a rich benefactor to tide them over. Finally, The market reacted positively to Hester and given time and support he will probably turn things round. Its just that some of the things that happened on his watch at RBS regarding GRG may yet be the subject of intense public and even legal scrutiny and take some of the gloss of Hester's image.
A rights issue -- if RSA go down that route --- has to be open to all share holders, even shares held in nominee accounts or positions held in spread -betting accounts -----If the "rights issue " is successful and fully or near fully subscribed then there is no reason that the share price has to necessarily fall below the rights issue price -- it does fall , that's the nature of rights issues and you have to decide whether you want to participate or not . -------------------More transparency is needed in my op. before decisions can be made ------for the moment i'm out -----------------------------but GLA still in .
if we don't get to buy any of the new shares then the price wont move too much -- but -- generally if share holders like yourself get "an option' to buy shares at a discount to the price when the option is given more than often the sp will drop below that discounted price and you will buy even cheaper than the offer price at some point after the offer time.
DMA ( daily moving av.) (lol)------------GLA>
defence i did say that "some " shorts would be running for the hills ---I'm assuming our poster is "short" from a much higher level ? ----Technically a case for being "long " is still there , albeit not very strong , i agree ------------------The rsi is mid range ( not much joy there then ) , but the uptrend from the lows of 90 p ish is still in tact (just) ---It has dropped below the 20 mda but still above the 50 mda ( that's a good sign ) - All in all another stock very much in the lap of the gods (lol)-----------as posted yesterday the drop below 100 p took me out for a small profit ---------- GLA.
and the second divi cut hasn't happened yet ! its a screaming sell 74p still on
I am short and I didn't run for the hills. Watching a dead cat bouncing is nothing special, least of all scary. I noticed they jack up the price in anticipation of all the noobies buying. Now the price have been sunk to trap the noobies for a ride. My target is 90p.
Don't see Hester allowing anything near that, unless he has a rabbit tucked away to pull out later and make himself look good. Divesting of assets would happen first....I think
Was half expecting a rights issue to be announced 30 seconds after I sold. Great if you can get in on a nice fat discount but only if you have the spare capital. If not, it looks like you will be hit a second time with dilution but they might be able to save some of the divi. Dont know how the large shareholder would react. Initially there were against it but now as things have begun to sink in it may be back on the cards as a least worse option. Its a pity we (they) dont know how much they need to raise, if it was just the divi amount I might have stayed in and waited for the upside to reappear and that divi to come back. You cant really obtain figures here to work out a good price to get back in, maybe the results will make things a bit clearer but I suspect not all the claims will be in by then. Maybe alb10n's 75p will be well worth a pop even with all the bad news.
Left RSA for the same reasons...expecting 102.2 or lower. See it did hit the 102.2 level today, but currently the funmun is riding with MRW, so might be a wait b4 I get back in here. Hesters reputation will probably do more than Hester himself, but unlike being at the whims of commerce, he is fighting global warming
I sold half my holding recently and today sold the other half. Mainly for the same reasons that It is most likely to loose its divi and that weather events were predicted to hit the low capital ratios. The weather is not expected to get much better and yes it might be the same people getting hit more than once so not really costing extra but I was hopping for a snippet of good news to hit before the results such as a partial sale. Mr Hester's appointment, whilst positive, has boosted the SP short term so Im going to take the small profit out whilst I can and it is most likely to be recycled back into Vod post conversion. I shall keep an eye out on its progress and not ruling out a return but much will now depend on the outcome of the results. I suspect I'm listening to the "noise" and maybe some of this is "priced in" but IMO there is more risk to the down side at the moment. Maybe I should have just ridden it all out and adde more on any fall, which was my initial plan. Although a lot more bad news has been outed since. It is most likely that the SP will be higher in 5 years time as Hester has chance to work his stuff. Good luck all who remain, Gerry, the not so much buy n hold investor, at this moment in time!
The move back up above 100 p and even more -so now the move above 102 p would most certainly have got a few "shorts" running for the hills (lol) --- Future not really looking much rosier yet , but we can hope ,i suppose ---------------I'm still long but a move down to 100 p would see me out for a small profit ------ GLA.
Cut n pasted from a Daily Mail article By RUTH SUNDERLAND "Shares in insurance group RSA have enjoyed a fillip from the appointment of Stephen Hester as chief executive. Fair enough: he won respect in the Square Mile for his work at RBS, if not of the bank’s customers and political paymasters. He is also a bigger name than the troubled insurer might have hoped to attract. When it comes to rescue jobs, RSA is not in the same league as Royal Bank of Scotland, so it is reasonable to expect that he will succeed in turnaround and possibly a sale. But the arrival of troubleshooter Hester at a company is the corporate equivalent of Kate Adie turning up with her camera crew – it does not augur peaceful times." Time for a tin had and rubber dingy! Thanks for that info alb10n, parden the pun It never rains but it pours!
The Hester effect is already on a wind down. It seems strange that this SP moves opposite to the market at the moment. Some interesting points raised by alb1on. Hopefully Mr H is a bright boy and knowing what he doesn't know might be an advantage. Maybe he can start asking the questions that a 5 year old would understand and if the reply comes back and sounds like bull, hes in a position to do something about it. Hopefully they have already identified issues and put in place new measures. Mr H seems to be a trusted pair of hands, maybe the regulators will give him the benefit of doubt. The wind put paid to yesterdays bike ride, dont think it was that bad as far as RSA is concerned. The high tides might and more flooding in Somerset expected. It looks like the weather is going to remain news worthy for some time yet. Hopefully Mr H will still have a kitchen sink to chuck. Oh well only a few weeks to the results and probably a drought going on by then!
Last time I had any interest in him was when RBS was sitting at 19p. Take consolidation out of the picture and currently RBS would be worth 33p....nearly doubled during his reign. The consolidation just made it look more like a "bank share" rather than an AIM penny share....
There are always storms and flooding - I live in the South West and there is no damage around me this winter. Most of it is coastal, away from large populations and localised. I don't foresee a huge problem for any insurer. Another thing to take into account is excesses on policies and how many are reluctant to claim and see their premium rise. There are too many doom and gloom merchants on this board. As for Hester....I'll reserve judgement but he doesn't exactly have an enviable track record.
Says watch SBRY.......a trade @ 400 spiked 09:51... 400.00p.... 590,600.... £2,362,400... Buy..... NT
Looking at the scenes of devastation in the west country and elsewhere over the past few weeks (and which have happened since RSA warned that these events would impact the bottom line) one wonders what the damage to non-life insurers such as RSA will be? The footage gives some indication of the number of cars and larger vehicles that will be written off by water damage not to mention properties, equiment and business losses. Hester's appointment seems to have calmed the markets judging by RSA's mini rally, but the Irish problem and resulting capital shortfall remain. He is a proven firefighter and not afraid to take tough decisions, but I am expecting this will get worse before it gets better.
Whatever he is up too, it will be too late once you know what it is.
First rush of blood to the head......now settling back a bit....might just have another bite in here today
I'll be back only when we know what fatty is up to.