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I was expecting a drop tomorrow but I didn't think it would be this high now and rising in a falling market. As for things being priced in I'm not to sure as IMO to much positive is being priced in unless its going to be a massive discount to get more shares. I have almost (95%) decided not to get back in. I would need a divi or a SP that has lots of upside risk compared to the downside so I will watch to see how this pans out but I wont be surprised if it does the opposite to my expectations. Assuming they become "well capitalised" overnight, it still needs to sort itself out longer term hopefully they wont have to sell the best bits otherwise what the point. There is potential as some bits made profit and this is supposed to be safer that that leprechaun profit
Big hint for tomorrow..... RSA INSURANCE GROUP PLC ORD 27.5P Bid 101.9p Offer 102p at 1520hrs
Doesn't seem logical to drop the price if they are trying to sell a disaster as the hottest cake in the business. A short term rally seem to be more likely because then people couldn't blame RSA when they decide to not to take the exit as it appears briefly.
Now that everyone are negative, I think we should have a big rally tomorrow. That's the only way to capture the people who think they have missed the boat or the gravy train. RSA is going to make you feel good, at least temporarily, while they chop your arm off. A business takes a very long time to turn around. Now is not the time to dive in no matter how well they dress up the disaster. I hope it goes to 110, although I am quite content for 105 before shorting.
I'm toying with the idea of Llyods @ 80.52........STOP.....LOSS.........decisions...decisions....maybe if it tweaks a tiny bit lower. In and out, ready to take on RSA Thurs or Fri????
"Surely its not buyer getting in to access any potential rights. " Perish the thought!
Sold at peak...well as near to it as I could get......taking a gamble that the results will knock this down a bit, on the basis that Heston will be seen to chop relentlessly. If he has chopped....then close tomorrow sets up how the market digests the results and where they think the future is for this one. My target buy back is circa 97-98........might never see that again tho' and wiould have to go back to the drawing board. Sold my freebies along with my current holding so that's a bit of small change kicking about.
Notice yesterdays spike, impressive 3.5%+ and thought some news was out but no. Surely its not buyer getting in to access any potential rights. Maybe it is NKOTB working his magic after all. Can you do the cut a RSA lady in half?
16:35 101.00p 11,926,676 £12,045,943 Buy UT
101.00 +3.50 (3.59%) Feb 25 - Close
Last bid I got from TD was 101.01......close £1...or maybe over?
Anyone? Goodnight New Kid see you the morra lol
Bounce this one about and see what you can remember......winery...Australia...Chinese guy put on the board....some move ...bottling...which gave the Australian Co. a foothold in China....shares suspended and transferred...shareholders had to apply to get their shares sorted out. CAn you remember any of the details....esp board members
See me hen.....am ded magic so a im......if only that were true
See the other bouncer is playing bet. 955 and 965.....a bit of heavy action at the lower end before close?
Good call New Kid - you're still a long way off needing the meals on wheels. atb
I agree with most of your points (except the 10% "profit" in the fixed cost element - but never mind - you and I are bothered about much bigger issues than that !). The reality with which Hester is now dealing is that this company has £10bn of gross premiums, £14bn of liabilities and c. £1.7bn of net tangible assets. His peers have between 35-70% NTA to net premium - so at sub 20% he is WOEFULLY undercapitalised - and the NTA/debt ratio is now dangerously high. He therefore HAS to inject new capital/jettison business/pass dividend - and even then will be lightly capitalised compared to peers - giving him little wiggle room going forward. And, as you say, that assumes his reserves are solid. Let's remember, the only "drains up" on reserves has been in Ireland - the rest of the review which will go into Thursday's results announcement will be KPMGs review of management's own numbers - NOT a fully independent review against best estimate. THE test on reserves is does the company feel comfy enough with them to declare (by LoB/territory/some granularity) a reserve redundancy % (over best estimate) as some peers do ? If they don't - we should not NOT assume that all capital issues "are off the table" (as they claimed 9th Jan they were seeking to do. Assuming they survive the 27th (and if the £800m has credence - I suspect you should look to the stock c. 80-85p) - then the real work for Hester begins. I agree on the COO point - and they have the PERFECT candidate internally - Rowan Saunders - a proper insurance-athlete - Hester needs to be helped past the lazy self-promotion that the Browns of this world peddle. The reality here is that this is a mid-sized player (market cap <1/10th Allianz) which runs like a big-bloated company. Hester needs to identify the competitive strengths of each business quickly (agree your price taking weakness point re places like Italy - but is RSA any better in the UK - a heavily broked market - RSA is not niche enough to seek fleeting profits, but too big/bloated to avoid business - as it hits the fixed costs) - set clear return hurdles based upon FULLY BAKED economics (true reserves, fair reserving - not the gaming that Haste indulged in, fully-loaded costs etc) and challenge managers to deliver or leave. While conducting that review, he should not be afraid of concluding that the UK is "broken" and needs major downsizing or sale. There are potential owners out there who would take a no prisoners approach to the UK and carve a £300-400m per annum profit out of that business - unlike the current jobsworths.
Not as bad as I feared......I DID think it would hit 94-96.......I think the 70's would be well overdoing it.....todays low was as low as I can see it going before Thursday....might even be a cat bounce
this needs to test 74p to make any progress -- I for one wont be tempted until about 78p then will slide in on tranch 1 and if it falls below 74p I'll send in a rescue tranch 2 when I decide where I think its going. If I'm wrong -- no trade here
I was hoping bank of america would pump it to 105 for me to add more shorts. Doesn't look like it will happen now. As far as a broker goes, they are an under-performer. Unless, they are working on something cunning. RSA could be floating this 800m right issue in order to make a placement seem more attractive. So when they decide to go the placement route instead, the relief will cause the price to surge to 105.
The post bemoaning possible lack of understanding on Canadian disposal - and does Hester understand insurance sufficiently refers. The agency business, viewed from London is 1. readily disposable 2. non-core - therefore it is a no brainer to pursue. Further, the idea that Canada's PBT could be impacted negative 10m from say 50m reduction in GWP betrays the real lack of understanding. I think Hester has enough nous to do the maths himself here. Let's give him some breathing space in terms of strategic action.
Feb 24 (Reuters) - RSA Insurance Group PLC : * Notes the recent press speculation regarding a potential rights issue * Considering measures to strengthen balance sheet, including raising capital by way of a rights issue * However no final decision has been made by the company at this time
And now the panic selling starts... Bid 98.65p Offer 98.9p
Rights issue considered
Need to top up the wallet in case a buying opportunity arises,,,do a Will--I--Am, and hang off buying until the bitter end.