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For Monday.....grand fight today to get back up...will it now advance further...I think so.
Well regarding the Somerset levels flooding. As the floods are still here and look to be staying even longer as least flood claims will be defered until the water has gone. Maybe RSA could pay the army to work slowly so that any claims wont hit for another 18 months or so when the water has gone. Might also make a killing on motor boat insurance too. On a more serious note thanks for the update alb1on. Again what is not said often says more.
Just dropped through the 97 mark......
New car sales up...(PDG doing well)...RSA are one of the boys who get Motability contract....bread and butter stuff for them. Believe I read report ( don't ask me for it)...where flood costs are more than covered. Their own website provides charts/graphs which make for hopeful reading ( biased naturally)...but give a pretty clear picture of what and where they are performing well
Trying for 97.85
bet 1120 and 1122am...vlume traded 530k...sp 99.95
Buried away at the end of the Ireland statement, however, RSA warned that further extreme weather in December – in particular flooding in the UK and severe cold weather on the east coast of Canada – “will be taken into consideration in the Board’s dividend decision” in February. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/insurance/10560253/RSA-dismisses-two-Irish-executives-after-200m-loss.html
Well it was still making a profit and growing in some areas. Assuming the divi cancellation and/or maybe a sale or two covers the regulatory issues then I think it can start to improve. A lower rebased divi then should allow the capital to increase over time. As you highlight no divi would be better at recapitalising and should support the SP from falling further but that also comes with risks. I suspect more heads will be asked to roll. It will be interesting to see how the remuneration committee act. Strangely they seem to work differently than us share holders suffer on bad performance but boards get more. I prefer some of the renumeration to come from a set share holding therefore knowing that as they cut my divi, their pay is reduced also and the pain is shared. Plus they are more likely to make better longer term decisions that way.
With most disasters, its a chain of small things that all align at the same time to make the disaster happen. Often stopping just one of these prevents the disaster. Looking at RSA, bad weather, Ireland, Regulatory issues are all starting to align hopefully somebody has stopped a link in the chain and it maybe that the divi cut is it. They have said themselves that they need capital and I believe that some sales, maybe 50% rely on having the correct credit rating so there is increased pressure to meet this target so less on paying out the divi. Im sure they are doing the swan thing and paddling like mad to plug the hole. Although the size of that hole is not really known. Ive seen estimates of £200M to £1B. Unfortunately the larger holders dont seem too keen to support a right issue and on past history can you blame them. I suppose the board have to be grateful that that have at least bad choices to make as opposed to no choice. Not long to go now for the details to emerge and maybe it wont be as bad as I fear
chris, I pretty much agree with all your points. The share price was rising on some of the down days. Maybe that's because its seen as already on the ropes so not much further to go. Maybe the divi cancellation has been "priced in" but I didnt think so. Whilst all options are "on the table" it seems to be whats the less worse choice. Nobody wants a rights issue to dilute holding, a cut in the divi, or a fire sale of assets. A takeover might be the favorite option but at what price. At least a divi compensates you for holding whilst going through bad times but it looking like there might be big losses or more than expected long term holders in this
I originally bought these primarily for the divi and because I thought the falls were too much. Since then more bad news came out and it dropped further. Again I thought it overdone and added. The bad news in Ireland has now been stemmed but capital remains a priority. Previously I assessed the divi prospects for RSA and expected a full cut of the final and further re-basing. Additionally Simon Lees replacement is yet to be announced and whoever is in post will most likely kitchen sink things so can show "improvement" later on. So after reviewing my holdings (and some outside issues and personal interests) I have decided to sell half my shares due to the large risk of the divi cut and bag just under 20% profit on that portion. Its still possible that things can be improved before the announcement and if the divi is not cut I will reassess getting back in. There are reports of sales of parts of the business. The proceeds have been moved over to Vod on the latest news and the fact its still got a divi. Does out of the frying pan into the fire come to mind? So much for being a buy and hold investor. Maybe I need to spend more time away from these bb's GLA
The entire divi will be cut according to some sources, not an unreasonable step, but future divi's also at much lower levels making the share that much less attractive for many http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Finance/article1367411.ece?CMP=OTH-gnws-standard-2014_01_25
Article in the financial times RSA has rebuffed Asian interest in taking a stake in the business.
Aviva bottom of the FT100 fallers, RSA top of FT100 risers, interesting
Todays figures have been similar to most of this week, There may be a black hole in the finances but somewhere out there someone is accumulating stock !! Number of Trades 4,041 Vol Sold 10,379,861 Vol Bought 15,004,728
are we being stalked? what planet are you living on? RSA being stalked? with a ''hole'' that big in it's finances, who would stalk RSA? I know a ''holes a hole'' especially after a few pints, but I woud'nt touch the hole that RSA is even with a barge pole!!!
Apols - should be clearer - I meant sit tight in terms of buying more (mentally attuned as I have sold all at 120p post first profit warning) - there is a big capital shortfall here - they either plug through franchise-undermining activity (sales etc.) or through new funding. That new funding will come at a minimum 25% discount IMO - hence I think it wise to get out now and back in later.
You don't seem to make sense to me mate, if you can see this will drop to 65 - 70p why sit tight but not sell them now and bought them back later when it does drop to that level then?
the share price rise is surprising - on fundamentals, this IS due for a correction. They need capital urgently - they are down c. £1.2bn in capital buffer since 2009 - since when they have grown the business 30%. The solution is either retrenchment/capital raising. There is no wiggle room on debt - they already have 50% debt to equity. A capital raise of c. £1bn (enough to carry on as-is; secure a decent CEO and then sell pieces off at leisure) will likely be at a deep discount (65-75p my guess). That's likely to become clearer as we move into February - as they will need to asses appetite well before 27th Feb results day.
I think it's being given the benefit of the doubt at the moment ---look at the buy/sell ratio(very neg.) It's closed at a significant point today tho' and if it can just close above 107 next week, then 50% retrace . targets 116 p ----almost all recent broker comment has a price of only 100-102 ,although it was tipped by the telegraph as one of their 2014 buys ( speculative i suspect based on a number of yet to be answered questions ? )---anyways i'm still in with a small profit at the mo. ---Gerry although i understand your point about take-over capilisation , it does'nt always follow that comp. are take-over targets just because their market cap. has fallen to all time lows--- can actually put some potential suitors off as they see too much investment needed to turn it around , so to speak.!! ---Just another take on the situation at hand --- GLA for next week .
Is RSA bring stalked?
how RSA could manage to keep on rising? So, I may have got it all wrong by saying that it could never get back to its previous level any time soon then.