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An ore sorter would be an interim measure. I'm no expert but have seen claims of 15 to 20% processing cost reduction through improving concentration at the mill. For Rambler, the mill itself isn't too far away from being the production capacity constraint so a sorter is a way to alleviate that.
Another very short term measure is to target the higher grades. Maybe that's TB's plan to hit 2,000 tonnes in Q4.
Assuming Newgen do a deal of some sort ,Rambler must also raise sufficient additional money to move the mill to the Ming mine site in the very near future or else the cycle will repeat.They need to cut costs to be economic.It is no good having a wonderful asset and a super duper newly modernised mine and then shipping the ore to Duck pond mill.That costs too way much unless the copper prices take off straight away.Reduce costs or there will only be one outcome.
So production in Q1 = 1066 Tonnes, Q2 1569, Q3 1654 and TB is saying 2,000 Tonnes for Q4, the final quarter at a rate equivalent to 8,000 Tonnes / year! I hope he is right.
I think a finance extension is coming and hopefully a buyer at some point to make the further investments for much higher production and lower unit costs.
I personally think they will look to restructure the debt on a long-term basis bringing down the monthly payments considerably making the day to day running a lot more profitable! Yes, they will pay more in the long run on the debt as the terms will be longer, but it will help with cash flow!
It all comes down to the economics though AJ.
It's not as simple as comparing explorer Vs producer mcaps and saying one shouldn't be more than another etc.
Don't get me wrong, you can make money here. However ATM the cost to mine profitably at present is not economic.
Having an asset with x value in the ground is only half of a picture.
Clearly if you're invested in an explorer you can benefit from discovery and resource base. However as a mining company, as you progress further down the development curve, the investment focus then turns to the economics and financial feasibility.
I know it's illogical that explorers Vs producers can have this disparity but it's all about cycles and sentiment. A very common, well accepted example, is looking at the lassonde curve.
What the asset needs is a large capital injection to bring down the c1/c3 costs massively.
The asset and jurisdiction etc isn't questionble but the investment being made here is into Rambler.
The question is can Rambler make this asset in this jurisdiction work. I suspect they probably can, albeit at a cost to shareholders, however I'm not certain they can do enough to really do what's needed for the mid to long term.
I do think if the news is right a short term gain can be made here. I wouldn't be looking at this as a hold stock though unless they had a very robust plan and the ability to achieve it.
Atb
They have a chronic habit of deceiving the market.
Don't you find this rich from TB: " We are still strongly of the view that Rambler's current valuation represents an exciting opportunity and will update the market on the outcome of our financing discussions in due course."
The current valuation is from lying to the market! How is this exciting, really turning a massive ****-up into a positive. More deluded than Boris Johnson
We are in the same boat as we were yesterday. The RNS is pretty much as expected. There is a few positives on their which I do like the sound of!
"Discussions continue with several groups, including Newgen Resource Lending Inc. ("Newgen") as the Company's principal secured creditor, to restructure the finances of the Company." - Several Groups (So trying to get the best deal for the companies)
"Operational performance has continued to improve once again to deliver increasing payable copper production of 1,654 tonnes Cu. Although working capital constraints held us back at the end of September, we have finished the Quarter well placed to deliver 2,000 tonnes of copper in the final quarter of 2022." - Once finance is sorted then in my opinion this should really start to do well!
The current share price of around 5p indicates an enterprise value for Rambler, including all its debt, of approximately US$40million. That is US$40 million for an operating copper-gold mine in eastern Canada with a billion pounds of copper in measured and indicated resource with significant exploration potential and several cost-reduction and expansion projects in the pipeline." This just shows how undervalued this is! Exploration companies spend 5 x that trying to find a mine as good as this! Let's be honest this is one massively undervalued company!
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/charts--“almost-unattainable”-gap-between-green-energy-copper-demand-and-mining-supply-11817082
We have a billion pound asset we are working hard with what we have got found a little bit more but newgen if you don't help us we will be up for sale.thoughts anyone
you see other companies valued more and not even starting feasibility stage!!!
Hardly anything in today's RNS that would even warrant a fall from 25p to 16p we've had before, let alone the 5p price we have today. This should 2-bag today.
Has Rambler in the last few years ever hit a production forecast?
Answer is no
Why does it warrant a drop to 3p? They’ve basically just said a sale is a strong possibility. People jumping on board now is who I’m jealous off. LTH’s are the only ones who get shafted out of this
The c1/c3 costs are very high though. They need to be at least halved tbh.
They are not making profit, as a company.
You can't isolate the operational cost from the rest of the business, hence why the price is so supressed.
The cost to mine doesn't include so many other costs that the company have, you can't just focus on the price to mine. The debt, capital investment, exploration, development and so on
The results today were where I expected. Probably at the higher end. That's good.
Clearly Tim is trying to do his job when he refers to the value of the company, he has to; but given the backdrop of their financial status on no current resolution the mcap is clearly heavily discounted for good reason.
At this stage the investment case in RMM is for someone who IS prepared to lose their capital investment. However it's also a case that if as an investor you are prepared to lose this capital, the returns can be significant.
Tim doesn't seem to state anything about the dilution in the context of his comments of the valuation. It come across as a little bit of an arrogant RNS to me.
It feels he just bangs the drum RMM are undervalued, without addressing or acknowledging the causes and elephants in the room that any investor will want to know. He will be constrained as to what can be said, but he should be saying more.
Atb
I don’t see any hint in that RNS that there is a potential/likely sale. I think they are hoping to get Newgen to restructure the existing debt and lend a bit more. If I had to guess, they will probably succeed, at the cost of an increased interest rate and a monstrous pack of warrants
3 - 3.5
Any ideas
Seems they want to sell the mine,or have I got that wrong,I await the conclusions of more knowledgeable people on here
Production figures better than I imagined based on previous announcements. However, the RNS makes clear yet again that the company is currently not financially viable on the basis of current debt structure. Accordingly, the entire future hinges on a successful refinancing. The fact that the board have had 6 weeks or so to secure this and now only have a week left must be a concern. I expect they’ll pull something off because they won’t want to lose their jobs, but the question is how bad it will be for current shareholders
Multi
‘Not correct they make decent profit at this copper level ‘
Really??
You cannot ignore all the non-operational costs.
Even if they kick Newgen down the road (at an overall greater cost to RMM)and get more equity they are not profitable
SteamS
No it does not, it clearly states the mine is generating free cash flow but not enough to pay back its debt repayments as they stand now, this is why they are seeking a re-organisation.
The RNS seems to be a promotion to others suggesting what a great opportunity RMM is to a prospective acquirer.
There is significant value here if only they can re-organise their relatively small debt.
States needs copper above $4.00 to be viable. That’s a problem
29th October 2021 is when we received confirmation of the financing agreement and Ramblers financial results. Wonder if the anniversary of that date is when we’ll get the news this year. 29th is a Saturday, so 28th it is. There’s my prediction.
Only good thing with SO at this price for LTH is if it forces a sale. Otherwise for LTH it is a disaster. Simples. And that’s why BOD need replacing.
All IMO bro
Everyone just not seeing it it’s clear as day to me yes we crashed but amazing really. Must understand now rmm in right place