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Due to Brad Mills holding plus TB plus NewGen plus Contractors most at prices higher than mine and knowing NewGen will be confident in the medium term CU price and the reduction of costs from an Ore sorter, gives me the confidence I will still make a lot of money.
The difference with rational investors is that we don’t 5 hit the bed every few minutes and having decent experience in M&A and running companies I remain frustrated by TB and BOD but still confident in the asset.
If they put this up for sale we would all make a fortune.
I said last year that TB was a liability as a businessman and remain of the same opinion (although I was accused of deramping!)
I also said in July when we went to quarterly reporting (and I msg the company at the time with this) that they had something to hide.
The BOD are untrustworthy BUT the conpany is worth many times the SP and that is why I haven’t and won’t sell but will add when the time is right.
GLA - DYOR and follow your research and don’t listen to most of the nonsense posts here
One last point that I don't think was mentioned by anyone. It was mentioned in the RNS they intend to attack the higher grade sections to mitigate the lower cu price.
I won't call it a buy yet, but for once relieved that the market did indeed overreact but for good reason.
Some positives. For on we are not as deep in the crapper as I had feared. This is actually manageable.
Indeed, we did not get to profit from high copper prices during Q1 and there were other set backs during H1. I still have a major issue with the BoD acting as if they got caught by surprise and must have known really well all summer that if copper dipped they'd be in serious trouble.
While copper reserves did increase as pointed out by DJ now green boxed, they are still insanely low. The price is not reflected of the metal's real value but traders perception of the overall market environment IMO.
This is for me a hold but not yet a buy until we hear from lenders. Still I did breath a sigh of relief. Don't really care how the market takes it tomorrow.
I still think it's time for Toby to go. While he was the man for the job on the mining side while Ming was in serious need of TLC, now we need someone who can run a business.
TB: - "We are in discussions with all relevant parties about the need to restructure our liabilities and believe that practical solutions will be found all round."
Favourable terms for shareholders? Almost certainly not. I'd imagine some quite considerable dilution is yet to come, but...
The future's bright, the future's copper.
All that matters here that they need money simple as that
The issue in H1 was Q1. $6.42 per lb C1 cost We knew that at the time.
Q2 C1 costs were about what CU price has been last few weeks but falling all the time (June $2.90).
Guidance is C1 costs $2.70 ish by end of year. Take the obvious need to do some capital works and they are able to pay new bills on time and no issues (if they didn’t have the old ones to deal with).
They will likely structure some of the larger supplier debts as paying over a longer period of time, but all of this needs CU price to rise
BUT (most) those suppliers will be supportive I have no doubt.
NewGen kicked down the road for a little more margin or sweetener and I wouldn’t be surprised if linked to additional borrowing for Ore Sorter but will need some dilution as deposit for the ore sorter
Got to admit a 4.30 rns seems a bit naughty,especially with no signs of help in the horizon
after reading RNS I feel better knowing this than I did before today.
Yes it’s not great but it is what it is and I am still of the strong belief CU will be $4-4.50 in Q1 2023 and rising from now until Dec to $4.
If they’ve done a deal with the mining subcontractor to reduce output until mid October then our variable cost to mine is reduced at the time CU has been low (past month or so).
My trust in BOD was gone last December (as many here will attest to as most hated my posts then). If it wasn’t for this lack of trust I have I would go all in now on the current SP
Much is stacked in RMM favour even with NewGen as it has just been reminded to me that NewGen took $5M equity (at around 35p) and warrants that expire in only another 3 years at exercise price of 35p.
Contractors recently took £1M of shares at 29p.
All of this has many stakeholders in RMM that are very desperate for it to work out here and soon!!
Fully aware there is risk here and possibly large dilution. Personally don't think company will fold but there could be a doubling of shares to cover short term debt repayment. Longer term should be OK but would be a much reduced target SP for me.
I see the mid-long term case for the mine with an increasing Cu price
But
Having a profitable mine is about much more than C1 costs. Especially one like Rambler. The problem historically was too little investment, development and capital investment.
My faith in the BoD is gone, I just don’t trust their numbers and don’t trust their forecast C1… I might be wrong and hope I am
Good luck all
Hi Aubrey...
It makes the mine a good proposition...with the funds an aquirer would have or the funds we may have.,.
They know how much it costs to dig out....they know how much their is...they know they can refine and improve production with a sorter...they know that they can increase production threefold...they know how much this will cost...
An easy and believable business case...
Now that costs are known at full mill capacity I can see company getting long term finance for ore sorter. Its in Newgens interest as they also have a shareholding:
'the Company and NewGen Resource Lending Inc. ("NewGen") have mutually agreed to amend the third tranche of the Loan Note from US$7.8 million to a higher total of $8.0 million comprising US$3.0 million debt plus US$5.0 million in equity.'
'The Company will also issue 535,848 agent warrants over ordinary shares in the Company in connection with the equity financing. The number of warrants represent 5% of the total number of shares issued in the equity financing. The exercise price of the warrants is 35 pence and the warrants expire in 4 years from the date of issue.
I can't see Newgen interest in company folding and will be looking to assist with reducing costs further.
That were lies our big problem. June's production costs around 2.90ish, copper price sitting around 3.50ish. with rising interest rates does anybody seriously see copper breaking 4.00lb in next 12 months, fair to say looks unlikely.
LL
Using C1 guidance only as your measure.
What about all the other costs… debt, development, liabilities …etc how are they paid for?
Not much headroom
Yes I do.....
Because it shows that copper can be dug out of the ground at Ming , profitably.....
And it appears 'value' what that may be?
Would anyone here be interested in buying in? ..... if the other financial rejigging looks to have eased the pressure.
But one wrong move we finshed
Today’s RNS puts me in mind of the bit in Lock Stock and Two Smoking Barrells where the gangster guy is talking to Nick and he says “if you do x, I’ll kill you; if you do y, I’ll kill you; if you do z, I’ll kill you; in fact, you’re gonna have to work very hard just to stay alive”.
In Rambler’s case, it’s:
- if we can’t persuade Newgen to hold off / restructure, it’s all over
- if we can’t raise both debt and equity to pay creditors and improve liquidity, it’s all over
- if we can’t get costs down while keeping production up, it’s all over
- if the copper price doesn’t improve (or gets worse), it’s all over
I’m not going to be falling over myself to buy back in. If/when Newgen are dealt with and the money is raised, that would seem to be the time to consider buying. Even then…
No research I do more then u buddy boi
No question we head south 1st thing tomorrow morning. Absolutely nothing in that to make me feel we,re anymore secure as a viable business than after that last bombshell we received 3 weeks ago. Nothing in that we didn't already pretty much know and the same uncertainty still remains which imo keeps the investors who were on the sidelines still waiting and gives the derampers a great platform to keep posting plenty off negative comments which keeps them amused. The decision not to even partial hedge when copper was at 4.73lb bk in march was the f..k up off all f..k ups. Fair play to anybody that can find much postive out off them last two r.s.n. Very disappointed with what has just being delivered as I was holding out hope the board could pull a favourable deal off . Going forward we have been left in complete limbo and it's likely we will get another r.s.n very shortly to say we couldn't secure the necessary funding and our goose is cooked. Absolutely gutted but that's life, I'm honestly reading throught some off the comments on here and can't believe some people actually trying to put a positive spin on this . This is confirmation we are on life support which can be switched off at any time and sooner rather than later imo.
djRyan 777 has posted 109 times on RMM in the last 30 days, now negative and spamming this BB, but look at the post below a few months back, the grammar is diabolical, you see DJ posts according to DJ's position, does DJ give a fig about holders, not on your nelly.
It costs to be stupid the more stupid you are the more it costs DJ
DJ posted this in June...
'Moon if you think its going to lose money then do one , stop annoying this chat board with absolute drivel with no actual research.
Their is no way an asset like this that has had its entire market cap spent on it in the last Two years more or less and is fully developed heading for a full production profile should be valued as bust.
Copper projects take 10-20 years to come to fruition and have at least 200 million spent on them to get to where we are.
The valuation rambler has is madness etc , it has this valuation because it has never been at full production'
Multibagger1 said it was going bust. It's not as it looks likely there's interest and a productive mine that is paying for itself day to day
Totally agree, Ore sorter funding on long term basis sorts out repayment of current liabilities as expect this could reduce costs to around $2.50 - $2.60.
This RNS a lot better than I was expecting. Was expecting going concern paragraph as was spelt out in last RNS on capital requirements.
Was expecting C1 costs to be around $3.50 or higher based on that last RNS, so to see cost of around $2.80 by year end would be impressive and actually lower than I was originally expecting in view of inflation.
I see the doom and gloom merchants are out in force, of course they are, they are either city spivs trying to scare folk out of their shares or they have sold and are trying to justify their actions.
This statement is very relevant in current circumstances, remember the CEO is well respected and RMM has historically had very supportive investor/funders....
Toby Bradbury, President and CEO, Rambler Metals & Mining commented :-------
In the context of the resource base that Rambler holds, the valuation of the Company, even including its current debt position, is exceedingly low.
The operations are proving themselves and future production is at less risk than it has ever been. Over and above this, there is strong exploration potential with 3 new mineralized zones discovered just this year.
To make the mine clearly profitable at current Cu prices they would somehow need to fund the ore sorter. I think I have seen that these can improve ore concentration by about 30% before transport to the mill, with the same increase to revenue and substantial reduction in C1 costs/lb.