Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I think a reasonably fundamental principle is that if one has to pursue anyone, to this extent, for redress over anything, the defendant is not usually the sort of person/agency/whatever that will just pay-up.
However, in this case, if RKH does win their claim, they would have the authority to seize assets to the value of the award.
RKH and their lawyers have very sensibly chosen the USA as the enforcement jurisdiction, so as well as there being plenty of assets to seize, the process is likely to be successful and not too long drawn-out..
Facing this, the Italian State may decide to pay-up, rather than have valuable assets seized. It'll still take time, but maybe not as long as some here suggest.
Of course, we still need to know the outcome.
"Fossil Fuel firms suing governments for $18 billion due to climate action"
SEPTEMBER 17, 2021
Extract.
"Meanwhile Rockhopper is suing the Italian government for USD 325 million due to the banning of offshore oil drilling.."
hTTp://priceofoil.org/2021/09/17/fossil-fuel-firms-suing-governments-for-18-billion-due-to-climate-action/
IF we receive an award in our favour , will the Italians pay up in time to avoid RKH having to fund raise? I fear we are going end up having to chase them for payment.
Good afternoon HappyInvestor100
You wrote;
"However, a major gas development in the SFB that secures the UK gas supply potentially for decades and powers a green revolution might be an easier sell. SL could then piggy-back off such a major investment in a SFB gas hub."
The present gas supply issues are relatively temporary. Could be high prices for next three or four months. There is loads of cheaper to extract gas in the middle East . It would cost billions in infrastructure to extract gas and liquefy in the deeper water SFB.
I do not see any FI gas being commercially exploited.
We are in the last chance saloon with SL. Next 2 weeks with hopefully see a decision; one way or the other from HBR. Kicking the can down the road with POO so high is not a credible option.
The availability of development finance is the critical factor , imo.
LTH
I always considered that RKH (SL) was the stepping stone to BOR (Darwin) but I'm much less sure now. I think it may be the other way round in today's world.
I think the focus right now is very much on gas as the fuel to drive electrification as part of the green transition. Oil is and, of course, will remain vital in the energy mix for many years to come. However, the direction of travel for the supermajors is to shift more towards gas because of its perceived longevity in the energy mix. Even Harbour is looking to shift increasingly towards gas. BP has said the same as part of its strategy to cut oil fossil fuel production by 40% by 2030 (most of this will be oil).
My emerging thinking is that unless someone is willing to open up a major gas province in the SFB (and granted it'll take a whole lot of investment), SL as a standalone will never be developed. So, whisper it softly, at this point SL may be more dependent on Darwin being developed than the other way around.
I also always thought RKH was lower risk than BOR but is that true now? They're both exceptionally and equally high risk. RKH is almost out of cash and Harbour (in which I own a small stake) is really not a great position to commit major capex to SL right now. I still think Harbour needs an SL in the medium term to replenish its asset base but its immediate focus is bring Tolmount on line (which has been delayed) and cutting net debt, which I think is still a bit too high. I think Harbour's recent share price weakness speaks to these issues. Navitas as a partner for RKH has been a total waste of space (they were given a share of the pie for nothing). At least Borders still has some control over its destiny owning a 100% of a vast acreage.
Finally, will UKEF under a Carrie Johnson government support an oil development in remote Falklands. I think RKH / PMO / Harbour have missed that boat. However, a major gas development in the SFB that secures the UK gas supply potentially for decades and powers a green revolution might be an easier sell. SL could then piggy-back off such a major investment in a SFB gas hub.
Qatar-on-Falklands anyone?
All IMHO DYOR
Best
Happy
Well most oilers are shares for gamblers but BOR is something of a standout, minimal chance of commercial success yet with a truly enormous sp potential...
Bloody 'ell - shovel all your chips onto BOR and spin the wheel? That really is bonkers.
"The Court (it's NOT a Court) is NOT in the thrall of the fossil-fuel hating climate lobby" Where did you get that from? Post the source please.
BOR could well go ahead one day, for the reasons I've already stated in other posts (I suspect you're just copying my homework HI), but not until SL has been sanctioned, the infrastructure is in place with SL producing some revenue.
HI, your post consisted of quite a lot of words, but not much worth reading.
That's my line of thought ("SL will be used as a stepping stone to the Southern Basins and Darwin"), longtermthinker,....which is why, we are holding shareholdings, in all three (RKH, ARG & BOR).
Hopefully, next Friday (24th September 2021), we will get a clearer view, on the way forward, with Sea Lion,.....the arbitration result, must be given, at some point, in time (& we can wait indefinitely),....no way, would I consider selling, any of our three (RKH, ARG & BOR) shareholdings, at this point in time.
BW
I'm already there and it's just as painful!
I think SL will be used as a stepping stone to the Southern Basins and Darwin, not the other way around.
Once SL is up and running with development then it’s game on for Borders and Argos for sure.
LTT
BOR ? Are you on crack ?
Not annoying Phil, an equity has a value based on transactionalism therefore arguments are valid on both sides of the equation.
Clearly in this case whether Darwin is stranded or not is closely related to SL...
Happy Investor, The court is in the thrall of the climate activists......where is your evidence for that? Please think carefully about what constitutes evidence before replying. There are few things more annoying or dishonest on these boards than people posting to plug other shares and bash the one they are on.
Shock! Horror! But please hear me out.
At this stage, RKH is not in a better position than BOR. RKH had $11.7m of cash left as at 31 December 2020 and management will have burnt through much of that paying private school fees and ordering their new Teslas over 2021 (plus any contributions to the SL project team whatever that is currently doing)! Yes, the OM arbitration may yield a material settlement but, bluntly, that is looking an increasingly forlorn hope. The Court is useless and evidently in the thrall of the fossil-fuel hating climate lobby. Even even if it determined in favour of RKH, there's little evidence that Italy would pay up quickly. There would be years of delay. Yes, RKH has partners but they are pretty useless and apparently uninterested. At this point, it would be better to have a 100% of the licence.
What about Borders? Darwin is a large and high-quality gas condensate find but it's in remote, deep waters where a single well can cost $50-100m. However, the world looks woefully short of gas and gas prices have rocketed through 2021 to 10-year highs. Gas will, it seems, be the fuel of choice for the energy transition for decades to come. While SL's oil may stay buried in the ground, it is possible that Darwin and the numerous lookalike prospects in the SFB open up a new gas province in sovereign British waters and ensure security of supply. Of course, RKH has Johnson but I don't think it's big enough as a standalone development plus its natural gas so much harder to transport.
Of course, all this is theoretical and both RKH and BOR are exceptionally high-risk. Certainly not for widows or orphans. Both are a gamble. However, at a £4m market cap, I think Borders is the better gamble. At least, it is still in control of its own destiny unlike RKH. Could it be that Borders find a partner to exploit the gas condensate in its vast acreage while SL stay unexploited?
At £4m market cap, Borders has true meme stock potential. The first gas meme stock of 2021 anyone?
All IMHO DYOR
Best
Happy