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Looks like RDSB has bounced off 890 again for now but the Chartists among you probably have a sense of whether that’ll hold
It’s tempting to keep buying to average down but I’m quite long in this share now and everything I read suggests it’s a longer term hold with a lower upside
The yield is great at this level but my average is around £13 currently so not so high and I’m just hoping the company doesn’t cut it further
Maybe if there is positive news I’ll do as some have suggested here and add on the way up rather than on the way down!!
Yes. The “experts” seem to suggest that the SP won’t be moving much anytime soon. But I’m thinking long term. 5 years or so.
I do hope it breaches the 890 today, as that’s my TP for now to double up my shareholding.
careful what you wish for lol
averaging down & catching knives
#spotthedifference
Quite right JollySpec.
If it breaks below 890 then the next support could be much further down.
Chartists are no better than weather forecasters, Barrieprov - there are trends, models and history - dealing with probabilities is one thing, trying to pin down certainties is another. For once the cliché can be correctly used: RDS will be in uncharted territory if it breaks below 890.
RDS is not actually a falling knife - that phase was back in March. The current trend is five months old - more of a continuous pressure. You don't usually get significant bounces (dead or live cat) in these circumstances.
@Purchase - there I have to disagree. Drip feeding to lower your average does work if you have done your homework and are buying shares that are on a dip. Not everyone has a wad of cash and sometimes you release money elsewhere to buy and accumulate on dips - and lower your average. Yes, overall exposure is higher but this will be ok if you are sure about the fundamentals. ATB
RDSB has massive gas reserves. The price of natural gas has just about fully recovered in both USA and Europe from the February levels. Renewables are likely to benefit gas as it is the fuel they burn to keep the lights on when the wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine. Natural gas can be used to make blue hydrogen. IMHO 890 is a bargain price!
Thanks Boyobach and the other contributors
Interesting point about the difference between now and March when there was a strong rebound. We know a lot more now and I’m encouraged to the view the risk is probably 80/20 for a ride v fall from current levels but I’m keeping powder dry until announcement next week
Looks like I missed it for now.
I instructed my broker to buy at 890.
Lowest was 890.80.
I still think it may retest 890 in 2020.
The Q is whether it will do so this month?
Sub 900 and more will come if Biden wins. It is little mentioned, but to keep the Sanders supporters on board, he has promised carbon neutral by 2050 or before, total replacement of the school bus fleet with electric vehicles, and other anti-oil measures. He mentioned the need to 'move away from oil' in the debate last night. A big slide could still come.
Biden talked last night and said he wasn't getting rid of fossil fuels, merely looking to end the subsidies for fossil fuels
"he has promised carbon neutral by 2050 or before, total replacement of the school bus fleet with electric vehicles, and other anti-oil measures.
"he has promised"...... if we were all given a Dollar for every promise a politician made during pre-elections we would all be rich.... and most of the school buses are privately owned and their replacement would come over time as their fleet were replaced....
The power grid in the US is not capable of running all the transport on electricity ..California for example ..the power grid would collapse
Solar Panels and Wind turbines infrastructure requires a lot of fossil fuels to produce them and result in masses of extra mining activity for such things as copper,iron ore, quartz,cobalt, lithium etc etc , which in turn uses fossil fuels.....they are very expensive and have a relatively short life span ...how much fossil fuels do you think Caterpillar use to make their mining equipment given all the steel,copper,iron ore etc used to produce them ???????
as an add onto Pokers post.
Mining also enjoys the same popularity as the oil industry does from the Greta gang.
Nobody wants a f*ck off huge open cast pit next to their house do they?
And shipping the stuff from 'superpits' the other side of the world uses petroleum.
Its a none starter when all the details are factored in.
Hi Poker
I totally agree with all you say, but I still think a Biden win will see an adverse price reaction here, in the shorter term. Having said that, I can still see Trump pulling it out of the bag. RDSB may be bottoming, or it may still be in a down trend, but I don't think it can be totally immune from market pressures and broader political and economic events in the shorter term; especially in these nervous times.
Anyone buying in the market at present (in general) is looking for a post winter and 2021 bounce... IMO ..with given optimism about COVID vaccine results and US Election results "hope" for a better future..
it is merely a "speculative" buy , given so much uncertainty still, in the short term ....
The "fear" though for private investors is being left behind should the market take off....given it might if vaccine phase 3 result are encouraging and US stimulus package comes through as is of a reasonable size..(which may in itself produce inflation down the line)
I did read somewhere that there is in fact relatively low inventories of stock in the US at present as businesses have overall kept their inventory tighter in order to save cash...and as a result, word has it, that there has been some reluctance to issue a huge stimulus until inventories have picked up..as without that there would be potential shortages and price rises..
Inventories are starting to pick up, but the back log means the container market has tightened and prices have risen substantially for deliveries from ASIA..the opposite of what was happening earlier in the year...
All these knock on effects behind the scenes
I wouldn't exactly say ‘woosh’ but RDS has continued to follow Exxon and Chevron, which climbed higher in US trading yesterday. It is also climbing out of the down trend that has dominated them all since mid June and has been flattening out in the 890 - 965 range, generally tending above 926. OP has been remarkably stable at an average of around $42 for nearly five months now - I believe that’s $4 or $5 above the figure that RDS assumed in its H1 guidance. Whilst I don’t see immediate prospects of 1000+, I do think that the threat of sub 890 is passing - it didn’t quite touch 890 yesterday, unlike Oct 2nd. when it went 6p lower. That may seem a minor point but it’s indicative in my view. https://invst.ly/skahy
“We need other industries to transition to get to ultimately a complete zero-emissions,” Biden said.
“What I will do with fracking over time is to make sure we will capture the emissions from the fracking, capture the emissions from gas. We can do that by investing money.”
Speaking to reporters after the debate, Biden insisted the fossil fuel industry wouldn’t “be gone” until 2050.
“We’re not getting rid of fossil fuels. We’re getting rid of the subsidies for fossil fuels, but we’re not getting rid of fossil fuels for a long time,” Biden said.
source: The Guardian
he uses terms like " over time " .."for a long time" ... Biden knows he CANNOT get rid rid of gas and oil ...despite the fact that the numpties who think we can all live using just wind turbines, and recycled seaweed etc seem to think we should
Wow , from 890 to 950.
I hope I haven't missed out on the boat.
Still going to hold on for 890 and double up when if comes.
Winter is going to be long and hard .
I think stimulus and a vaccine are the only things stopping it from retesting 890.
Let see how it goes.
Bimmer668 nice bounce for the traders which I missed but I guess I’m in the patient investment camp as have lost out in the past by changing my mind. Following other comments if there’s a revisit of 890 as a consequence of OP falling back on supply demand imbalance and on the assumption a vaccine arrives it can’t be a bad strategy to buy on the dip?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Slip-Again-As-COVID-Cases-Surge.html
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/More-Libyan-Oil-Set-To-Return-To-Market-As-Factions-Sign-Ceasefire.html
Will this mean RDSB retests 890 next week?
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Slip-Again-As-COVID-Cases-Surge.html
More bad news for oil
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/23/oil-markets-coronavirus.html
I need it to go down 50p to get my TP of 890
Bimmer theres a very good chance you will be right, but time will tell!!
I think you’ve missed your opportunity Bimmer, can’t see it touching 890 again.
Bimmer668,
on oilprice.com you will find as many articles suggesting oil price will go up, as there are articles suggesting it will go down....bulls and bears just pick which ever one suits their view, and the website gets plenty of page hits either way....
Short term the share price is merely directed by oil demand fears and with the US Election very close...the market could be volatile...
The thing is...if this sees 890p again it will be because of "fears" and you can be sure that at that point you then question the same thing as now..... will it go lower?..will it recover?..shall I buy?..shall I wait ?
...
at 940p it is easy to think 890p is a better bargain..a sale price...but...let's see what the sentiment is and the reasons why it does get to 890p and then see what you do !!!
Thanks Pokerchips.
I’m set to go in at 890. Personally that’s the magic number for me as it would mean that my average purchase price would be £10 for 3000 shares.
If it does go lower than 890, I may even top up some more. But for now, I’ll be happy to buy in at 890 and enjoy the dividend whilst I wait out this pandemic to end.
With what promises to be a very bleak winter in the Northern Hemisphere, it may even go lower than 890 but as the saying goes, you can’t catch a falling knife.
Having said that I’ll be happy to buy at 890 even if it does go lower than that by end 2020.
See recent article on Bloomberg titled
Big Oil Loses Refining Crutch With Margins Crushed Last Quarter
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-oil-loses-refining-crutch-080000099.html
“ 4. LNG Lag
Investors have been given plenty of warning that the brunt of Covid-19’s impact on liquid natural gas trading is only hitting balance sheets now. The largest LNG producers typically sell under long-term contracts that are linked to oil prices. These usually have a lag of three to six months.
Shell, the world’s largest LNG trader, is expecting a “significant impact” on LNG margins in the third quarter. About 80% of its term sales this year are linked to oil and have a price lag of up to six months, it said in a trading update.”
Would this or anything else expected to have an impact on RDSB SP next week?