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2024 a record start, av. 19,000 bopd in first two months , oil over $80+, robust cash position, continued progress on oil export pilot through Ecuador, will continue to prioritize derisking oil sales so PetroTal can embark on new production growth projects.
The Company commenced drilling well 18H on March 5, 2024 The well is expected to take approximately 60 days to drill and complete with initial production estimated to occur by mid May 2024.
PetroTal is pleased to announce continued advancement on the OCP pilot oil shipment with the signing of three key approvals. In early February 2024, the Company received approval letters from the Ecuadorian Ministry of Environment and Ecuadorian Navy along with the successful signing of a use of port agreement with Petroecuador to start the 100,000 bbl pilot. Pending success of the first pilot, the Company anticipates an additional pilot in the second half of 2024 with recurring sales expected in Q4 2024.
https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1770711771440939211
Only minor quibble, 17H production since March 1 has averaged 3300, which in comparison to other new wells seems on the low side.
Considering the challenges over the dry season, that was quite a year. I think their Brent forecast is rather conservative at $77, and they are allowing for another really bad dry season.
I'm happy!
CHARLIE THEY ARE JUST CLEANING UP THE NEW WELL OF DRILLING FLUIDS
Assuming netbacks of $45, even at current 3,300 bpd, it would pay out in just over 90 days after which its pure profit.
Ther is no pleasing Charie, he always wants more, should have been named" Oliver"
Roxi, the less of you, the better. Please don't do to this forum, what you've done to the JSE one.
My biggest take on this is the future... current production at 20k bopd and a new well to come on stream in mid May with a brent forecast at $77 and currently at $85, this has a very bright future indeed. The 64 thousand dollar question is will the ONP get back on line, if so the numbers could rocket. another question is, if production goes to 25ooo bopd cn they ship it fast enough? all to be revealed. but the downside is small from here
Do we still think ONP is critical? Given:
- Manolo expanding export routes - possible to keep pace with desired output?
- Dry season mitigation being developed via trunking depots
- ONP offers lower netbacks & delayed payment
- Propensity for ONP to go offline with our oil trapped inside, unsold!
Darkangelv2 - I agree 100%, mentioned it a billion times I think.
It's not needed with the present volume. Cost does scale rather well though, so maybe if PTAL adds a lot of production AND payment terms are changed (FOB - once it's "on board" it's not our oil and must be paid in full) - then ONP becomes relevant. Bargaining power (more buyers) and diversification (less dependency on one channel) are also "upsides" to future ONP usage. But it's definitely not needed ATM.
Re. 17H: Looks to be weaker than previous wells - but we can't expect every new well to perform like the best P1 wells. H17 is on the northeastern outskirts (it seems) of the field, so it might be the last drilled there? Plenty of P2 wells to drill still, though, at Bretana.
Onp only possibly third quarter
I am happy to hover the dividend and in this oil price environment liquidity sweep payment for sure in the next 6 months. they just want to keep about 60 million liquidity. rest distributed to share holders.
Hope the share price gradually picks up.
I have put forward the question RE: 17H production few moments ago on the webcast . Lets see if they pick up my question :)
Well the very next slide mentions ESP is to be installed later this month so i think that answers it! This is on natural flow only. They are waiting for few more days to switch on pump and Manolo just confirmed its right in line with expectations.
Great update, and I say that because their is no fireworks there, and no surprises. No promising the earth, but never being sidetracked by the realities/variances concomitant with their locale. Just boringly delivering predictability.
And the SP may be moving barely/sideways, but I like that. Because the mgmt culture is such not to promise the earth, a ine off 5 bagger, but be disciplined and deliver a healthy sustainable long term return.
Evidenced by spending a fifth of their mkt cap on capex a year. By projecting on $77 bbl despite reporting figures where based on a realised price of $81.05 (down from $84.95) and current oil price being above their $77. By their not spurting production upwards, before managing/diversifying product routes to market..By reducing their bonds. By retaining £70m cash for eventualities. By maintaining the dividend, at a healthy level, but retaining flexibility with cash for eventualities.
This is a mgmt/CO whose discipline/pragmatism is to under promises and over deliver. Frankly, and delightfully, i've filed this holding in the boringly predictable put away and forgot about draw.
No boom or bust here. In long term enriching income, I trust
I have pored over the latest, revised presentation which crystallises what has gone before. PTAL will remain a p/f fixture. Rather than feather my own nest a permitted £3k pa allowance will continue to go into family members' a/cs. The company will be around for many years and I hope Manolo, having acquired his father's skills, will be passing them on to his daughter.
Among the incidentals is re-evaluation of the existing rig; it's been a reliable workhorse but a bit slow when compared to latest rig performance elsewhere. An example is AXL's Llanos rig which reaches TD in 7/10 days (although at admittedly shallower depths) for verticals and another 10 for lateral extensions.
Another conundrum is a question on multi-stacked possibilities at Bretaña. Essentially it's part of the same foreland. Concentration is on one (Vivian) formation whereas Marshall Abbott speaks of five oil-bearing horizons.
Current exercise is adding to AXL and i3E, the latter having overcome AB bottlenecks and continuation of dividend policy.
Waiting for the rerating here. these numbers are pretty good