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Order book was wrong. Project pipeline is the correct term.
sorry for off topic, but aaandi mentioned this, and some on here may have money in EQT as well;
EQT order book same as ITM at over £300m*
Hahaha'
No, it doesn't. It has' quoted' for 17+ projects, but has been particularly lax in converting them to orders. Billingham, it's flagship model. is not an order yet. If it had £300m orders on the book, the sp would be 10p+.
EQT order book same as ITM at over £300m*
I am wrong again?
If you had bought pps 2 years ago your holding would have gone up 2000% not 750%
Maybe this debt funding model is working as the share price isn't dropping each time there is a placing announced... As placings are usually at a discount they often drag the share price down. That hasn't happened at PPS.
Maybe the director deserves this cash he makes due to the performance?
I'm in here with a small holding to see how things go as the step up in orders and huge huge manufacturing volume increases hinted at could send this share soaring to ITM market caps and beyond. Money is flowing from oil and gas into this sector so traditional valuations are out of the window.
EQT have the same size of order book +/- 20% as phe and they are about 5% of the market cap. Those are crazy mismatches for two green sector stocks on the same market AIM.
Oh and last time I checked, PHE were due to make £0.5m on each unit not £5m...
I was in EQT at 0.34, thanks for asking, and 0.9 for PHE. I have been 'green' a lot longer than you, and have posted on LSE extensively about the demise of the oil industry as the push for H2 through FC technology, to power HGVs, ships, trains, aircraft envelopes the world. You are wrong, again. on Ceres Power. I bought CWR at about £2 a couple of years ago. now £15. I bought Ballard Power ( Canadian Co FC mfr) at $16 2 months ago, now $36. And a few potfalls along the way. My point is, I can teach you about FC technology not t'other way round. PHE is a similar case to PPS in as much as it has a MCap divorced from reality. In the case of PHE, it currently has DMG plant under construction ( at least the grounds been broken), and if successful , will open up an order pipeline of several hundred units worldwide, and with a known £5M fee on each unit pa, will give profitability. Nahab has engineered PPS so that it will always be in debt to him, and there's nothing shareholders can do about it.
Also yeah, what was I on about with the consolidation! I do understand the process.
So share price at ceres has not moved in 10 years, but at PPS it has 25bagged. Of course previous results are not indicative of future results and all that, but mass production could really push things along. Or should we all just sell up because the directors have too much control?
Sorry I had just woken up. So even better then, the share price has 25bagged in 10 years before they had a commercial product. Debt is less than 10% of the market cap. If they had raised equity on the market through dilution over the years I could quite confidently say the share price would not be 25x now what it was 10 years ago.
I've seen the equity note, not profitable this year but not far off.
Who cares if they never pay off the debt? Most companies run with debt. Most households have a mortgage, its how the world works! Having managable debt and a product that is at the leading edge of the switch to a hydrogen economy is not a big deal. I'll answer your question, maybe never, if they wanted to tomorrow, more realistically, if sales increase then the cost of production falls, it could be repaid in 5-10 years perhaps?
Did you invest in eqt at 0.5p when you were poking holes in the Billingham deal?
aaandi. What on earth are you talking about - consolidation reduces debt.!! Consolidation is used to either increase/decrease the sp, with an offset increase/decrease in number of shares in issue. The Market Cap remains the same. I bought PPS in 2010 at 4p, and if I sold when at £1 that would have been a 25X bagger, not 6.5!!!! What reduces debt is cash or shares paid to the debt provider. In the case of PPS, debt has increased with the number of shares inissue, because Nahab, when he 'lends' the company money, sometimes takes the principal, or the interest, or both, in shares.
Now if you would like to answer my question, when do you think the company will pay off the debt from profit from trading?. In your lifetime do you think?
Agreed there is not very many shares in private investor ownership (if you exclude SFN Cleantech Investment Ltd). This surely restricts free float - so if an influx of new investors were to arrive, the share price would begin to climb so long as the majority share holders chose not to sell into a rise?
On a side note, as the orders increases, the cost of production falls dramatically as per the research note.
I see on the 6 monthly results:
"automated fuel cell manufacturing line was installed in May 2019, with the objective of increasing manufacturing capacity up to 215 MW fuel cell power per year. With further investment the automated line capacity can be uplifted to 176 GW fuel cell power per year. "
How much does say 100mw fuel cell cost - 176GW/year is a lot of future capacity/revenue!
Of course ceres currently making 3x the revenue but market cap is 3x so on par.
What happens when proton motors product is marketed heavily like is about to happen..
Winners and losers in this space..
CWR (Ceres) shares in issue 2010 70million
Shares in issue 2021 170million
Consolodation 10:1 in 2018 https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CWR/share-consolidation-29piq7dc3zoxs8k.html
So without the consolidation the share price would be 1.7 Billion
If invested in 2010 your investment would be worth 10% of original value today. (same sp 10 years ago)
PPS shares in issue 2010 170m. Shares in issue today 730m. 4p in 2010 100p today.
If invested in 2010 your investment has increased by 6.25x now to wipe out the debt would require a consolidation of 10% so your initial shares would be wwoorth 5.6x if a 10% equity raise were to happen today.
Those are pretty good fundimentals.
aaandi.
Apols, the £100m debt I mentioned, should have been $US. I forget it uses $ sometimes, reports in £, and gives sales in Es as well. The conversion is at 2p not 3p. I was going from memory and no time to go through years of RNS's.
Yes, the wording, again from memory, is that part of the debt, can be transferred into shares at 2p each. The action from t'other day, shows he has a definite interest in transferring the shares, and I don't see him as a philanthropic guy, do you.?
The larger the projects that come in, the more capital that will be required to start and complete them. Nahab will continue to issue the capital from his own pocket. It's a classic 'rinse and repeat' operation. He is on record that the 'debt' situation would be resolver before end of '19 I believe ( it might have been '20), but he issued an RNS stating that it will be resolved 'later'. He doesn't want the 'money market' involved in 'his' company. I will repeat. Great products, crap business model.
Where do you get £100m from testpack? Are the figures from the january research note of £75m wrong?
The other day you said the following:
"Part of the debt can be transferred to shares a 3p each, which would increase number of shares by 400m."
This debt "can be" transferred to shares at 3p (or 2p as looks like happened recently), but there is no obligation to transfer? So if cash was to become available (through strategic collaboration or equity raise), this £75m could be paid off and forgotten about?
https://research.arden-partners.com/portal
An account is required.
Then search for Proton.
A lot of detail in the report.
Current debt position
Proton Motor’s current total loans outstanding amount to £75.5m (€82.7m), comprising
£26.5m (€29.0m) outstanding from SFN Cleantech Investment Ltd, an investment vehicle
owned by Mr. Falih Nahab and Proton Motor CEO Dr. Faiz Nahab and £49.0m (€53.7m)
from Mr. Falih Nahab. These amounts include principal and accrued interest.
Rise on sentiment**
I have seen many companies in this sector raise on sentiment over fundamentals, then the company carry out a share dilution of 10% of their market cap (ITM 22nd October) or 40% (EQT 9th July). ITM were double the placing price and EQT almost 8x up on the placing price by the end of the year.
If the order book is starting to grow and the word is out, correct stewardship of the finances could grow a company with a good product.
This is the green dot com era we are entering. Some companies will soar to massive highs and others will fail. Finances aside, from what I have read with only 24 hours of research - Proton have a lot of operating hours and have tested their product in a lot of situations/environments.
Also see how for instance Ceres share price has grown.
The share price did not take off in december like the other green stocks, but instead has jumped up on RNS news which suggests to me that it is somewhat off the radar.
"Proton Motor Power Systems plc (AIM: PPS), the designer, developer and producer of fuel cells and fuel cell electric hybrid systems with a zero-carbon footprint, is pleased to announce that it has appointed Brendan Bilton as Investor and Business Relations Advisor to the Proton Motor group."
RNS from 20th January.
I'm sure fundamentals here would improve greatly with investor interest, marketing and increased revenues - all of which the company are now focusing on advancing.
Arden are paid for their research notes, and are unlikely to bite the hand that feeds them.
And, on cue, Nahib puts 40M shares onto his holding at 2p, not 3p as I suggested yesterday. Only another 360M to go!
The co. had less than £1m T/O last year, has debts to the ceiling, and would anyone like to hazard a guess when it will be able to finance working capital from revenue. My guess is that most of you will have departed this life. It is not going to be a Take Over target on these financials. And, naturally, with Nahib's intention to finance from his own pocket, at above market rates, it is a cash cow for him.
So, aaandi, what's your financial insight into when this co. will finance WC through EBITDA.
Arden partners covered this and still put a 200p buy rating.
There are positives and negatives to that. As you say, it has been that way for years, but for me that mostly means the shares are in sticky hands. When they sell shares to the open market, that increases the amount the PI's can access which is what moves the SP.
I wouldn't call them a captive funder, but the fact that they are willing to put their money into the company is not a bad thing. For small tech companies, the SP can get hammered by placings. I see this as a more stable share.
I am not being a doomsayer, but please be aware that the Company has a £100m debt with the Nahab family. The Company was going to resolve this before end 2019, but procrastinates. Part of the debt can be transferred to shares a 3p each, which would increase number of shares by 400m. I have e-mailed company several times, as a shareholder, but, to date, not had a reply. It is also interesting that the last few 'shareholding RNS's' only mention the number of shares the family has sold. Before, the RNS's stated the date and price of the transaction. It's a simple ploy not to tell us the cash amount involved, as though we can't work it out for ourselves. Also, finally, when the company needs to raise investment for working capital, it is provided by the family, and not the usual sources. This was the problem to begin with. The vast majority of companies raise cash for working capitol at the IPO. The family only issued about 5% of shares to the publis at IPO, and financ3d the company from their own pockets, with obvious long term benefits. It has some great products, the business model however, for Investors, sucks.
Don't forget other disadvantages of battery packs: charging time is at least 30 minites and will need replacing well within the life of the vehicles - some have only 3 year warranties.
Just found out that a quarter of the weight of a Tesla motor car is the battery. I hope hydrogen cars will be a lot lighter and take over from Tesla. Speed up the process please. We will soon have to get rid of petrol and diesel and we are seriously looking for future alternatives. Maybe this firm can beat Mercedes and BMW to the winning post.
Crumple, just watch and see.
n888 It looks like some of the free float may have been taken up by ii ?? Which could explain all the buys in 10k chunks. Looking good but 7 GBP may take a few years to reach, with a strong order book.