If all that was required for them to make a market was to match people wanting to sell at a certain price with people wanting to buy, it would be automated. It isn't automated because they are after their own pound of flesh along with the transaction fees for each purchase and each sale. Call it the vig if you like but they are there to do more than just make a market - they are there to make as much profit as possible for their bosses.
I do not think we are testing the "spoil" or any gravel that comes up with the mud. I believe however that during the appraisal stage, they will be taking core samples, so imagine some testing will be done then.
I'll try not to be too derampy. Hmm... solid or superlative findings.
Well, some quotes from the most recent interview:
"very significant gas show"
"It doesn't have to be an efficient seal to be an effective seal"
"Possibility for us to discover plenty of additional gas shows"
"We've had fantastic indications of Helium and we haven't even tested our primary horizons yet"
"We've got a clear indication of a working helium system"
To go from 480m to 1200m would take 3.5 weeks (25 days) if they are doing 30m per day.
We found out about the delay and reset to 483m on the 12th. "The sidetracking operation has been a success and we're continuing to drill down now" - so drilling had commenced by at least the 12th.
Do we have 8 days left to get to target depth? I think less.
If we were drilling 30mpd from the 19th, we would have hit 400m on the 1st - then 2 days to pour and set the cement. 561m would have been hit on the 8th at the depth the drill string was lost.
At 35mpd, 561 would have been hit on the 5th.
Would they have taken more than a couple of days for the fishing? I think after they failed to get it past the casing at 400m they would have just called it. To go from 480m to 1200m would take 21 days at 35mpd and 24 days at 30mpd.
How long do the tests take to perform and interpret? I'm guessing a day for the cleaning of the hole and running the tests. Then a day to check and analyse the results to determine what is there. Not sure if they need to send the flow sample away for testing but they do have equipment on site so for now I think this would not be required for a discovery to be announced.
We may need to wait until next week for news, but that is not guaranteed. I will not be selling any shares. My chart differs slightly from Joshwaa's, but basically shows the same thing. The trend for the past few months has been maintained with a slight fall in the last few days which has now corrected. The blue line trend has been in place since April and has settled there again. https://invst.ly/vkkky
I have no idea what drove the price up today unless there are quite a few finally deciding on taking a position. I was not too pleased to see the gap up at 23.5p just before lunchtime. The market usually corrects that, but did not do so on this occasion. We may see a candle tomorrow with a really long stem closing that - I don't see the SP going back down there with so little time left. Mind you, I didn't think the SP would go below 22p. https://invst.ly/vkkmr
GLA DYOR BYOB
That is to anyone who is - definitely not SteadyDanny :o)
If we had conducted the wireline logging at 400m, this would have given us information on the type of rock we have drilled through and the length of the various types. After we reach the 1200m Target Depth, a Drill Stem Test will be conducted. I'm not sure if a DST can also do wireline logging or if they need to be two separate exercises.
The wireline is basically a rod with a whole array of various instruments on it that will take readings when being pulled back up. The DST can determine the flow of oil or gas. We won't get a proper reading on the flow rate until the appraisal wells are drilled but it will tell us if this can be classed as a discovery.
Wireline - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0_BqY-ApEM
Drill Stem Test - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAzpHQivraw&t=104s
I think in general it would follow the same trend as other shares where after a discovery and initial increase in SP, some people may take some profits and the SP falls back a little. The thing I am not sure of though is the timing as this is a maiden drill that could derisk the entire basin. You would need to try to factor this in to any exit point, but others may see a fall after confirmation as a good entrance point for this reason, so I think this could more heavily traded than a usual dip at that stage.
Institutional investors I don't think will be a factor at this stage and may wait until we are actually producing before major investment is seen here. It is a bit of a grey area due to the size of the resource too - any little piece of news could push the SP and I'm sure lessons learned from the stratography will be released to ensure confidence in the future drills.
I think all they changed was the hashtags. https://twitter.com/Moilgas/status/1419679133479710726/photo/1
DM may be keeping a closer eye on the Marketing Dept after the last time.
I wasn't expecting news last week after the last update, but hopefully some time this week.
It looks like the market isn't expecting news today as it allowed the SP to fall below a major trend line (22.2p) on Friday. I actually expected much more movement last week from traders coming in and out, so not sure where the SP will be going this week. https://invst.ly/vj0t4
Hi Wyndrum, welcome back(ish).
I think DM left as we were approaching 400m - we got an update from the field after this and the drill seemed to still be turning.
DM even commented that questions were pessimistic during one of the presentations. I agree we need to take off the rose coloured spectacles from time to time. Not going to remove the smile from our faces though.
2 weeks is a pretty good range. We don't know how many days they went fishing for or when the drilling of the sidekick resumed so any range we come up with will be pretty general.
They started the drill slow to 55m so that the hole did not give way, then cemented the well cap - I would say 4 days to dry. At 400m, they did more cementing which would take about 2 days to dry. So approx. 1 week of their time has been waiting for cement to dry and they got to at least 70.5m on the 19th. For a depth of 561m in 3 weeks minus the time taken to try to fish out the drill stem, say 35-40mpd? Allowing 4 days for fishing would take us to the end of next week for TD.
Unless we get other news, that would seem about right, but they have also drilled 15m in 1.5 hours before. I think more people will be locking in their position in advance to ensure they are not caught out.
I think as we will not get results of the drill for a number of days yet, the market has placed us near the bottom of the broad channel we have been moving in. https://invst.ly/vfdqw
I think we may continue in this slightly downward-sideways trend for a few days before moving back to the upper half of the channel. There is currently some resistance at 22p but not sure how long that will hold. https://invst.ly/vfd-i
Joshwaa, I expect a completion of a H&S formation tomorrow at close. Do you think we rebound from there or given that there is no news likely in the next week do you think we see the completion below this on the 16th as well?