Member Info for Glib

I believe the 3D Seismic would cost over £3.8M, while the 2D is only around 10% of that.
They have previously stated that 3D would be used when a discovery is made, but we are still looking for the best locations to make the discovery.

Chart is showing us in a slightly downward channel, currently ranging between 6.5p-8p.
https://invst.ly/wekv9

It may go slightly lower, but with potential test result news or the shallow drill contract being finalised, any dip may be short lived. The dips are being bought in to but there is some hesitancy as more funding will be required at some point for the deep drill. If the shallow drill makes a discovery however the SP will be much higher and funding will not have much of an impact. If we make a shallow discovery.

ST last posted here after the announcement of the Tai-2 results and said he would wait for the next RNS. Which is what we are all waiting on. He didn't start posting on LSE again until this week (but not yet on HE1).

I would assume he is still holding.

We drilled a hole to almost 1200m
Lost a drill bit half way down
Were unable to test if there was gas in our target area - the karoo, due to wireline tools getting caught on the washouts.
We were also unable to test our uncalibrated show at 70m. I'm presuming it was because the insurance voided further testing of the hole.

Tai-2 was looking for details of what they found at 70.5m
All they found was clay, so no gas got past that section. We now know where we won't find gas, but can we identify the volume from these tests?

The first hole was not a duster. If tests had shown no gas, then we could say that, but they were unable to do any flow tests. A slimline hole is not suitable for the deep drilling, so we will need to source and hire an appropriate rig, crew, equipment, site and security. We will also need to clear the areas that the 2D Seismic will be targeting.

It has not been confirmed that shallow drilling will be conducted. Geophysical tests were going to be required before this happened, but even these have not been confirmed.

We have £10M but no idea what the next step is. An Oil &Gas drill was mooted to cost around 4 times more per hole, so that could be £4M-£5M.

If they have planned the next steps after the 2D, we need to know if they will be doing geophysical tests of shallow targets, how many water rigs we will be using, their cost (and site security) and how commercial gas will be retained.

If there are no short term drilling plans, how many holes will phase2 be targeting, what is the cost and timeline?

Hopefully the data we collected has provided a few answers. There may be news released before the interview, but until we know how the company will move forward I expect to remain around these levels.

It's been, 6 weeks since you RNS'd me
Arrange a Seismic contract and we'll all be happy
Then it's, 4 weeks to clear the fields so that
Phase2 can start while we examine the shallows

Probably testing going on right now for shallow traps, but this has not been confirmed in an RNS.
I am hoping there is not much more to do in arranging the contract for the Seismic mobilisation, but they would need to identify the target areas and contact the locals who use the land. Then those areas would need to be cleared (as well as ensuring the vehicles could access the areas okay). November was definitely a tight timeline to start.

I would suspect there may be an RNS released before the webinar on the 19th. There will be plenty of questions. There has been speculation of why Tai-1 was not tested at 70m after the washout prevented testing at deeper depths, but confirmation would be good. Progress on testing shallow targets; when drilling these targets may commence; timeline for seismic; equipment required for deeper drilling after new seismic data analysed...

The SP could stay at this level for another 2 weeks and it seems to have settled at this level. Only news will move it so hopefully there is good news on one of the above coming soon.

We know that tests are being done to identify potential shallow gas shows. Until we have news of these being drilled and possibly shows identified, I don't think there will be any SP movement due from this. For the 2D testing, they are hoping to be able to start in November. If we get an RNS stating that the contract has been completed and equipment sourced, then when the scanning starts there may be some price movement. That's all I think will move the price - and the current money will cover testing but not the next "big" drill, so they will need to raise. Hopefully not with a large discount.

So, all this excitement is because we are still in the 8p-9.5p range that we have been in since 26th August? Don't get me wrong, I like it when shares i'm invested in go up 12.5% in a day. We are back to where we were a week ago. And still waiting for news.

On the 11th I posted this chart to show where trends from Tai-1 and Tai-2 may take the SP. https://invst.ly/v--go
Here is an updated version. https://invst.ly/w3n6b Today we passed the orange trendline from the Tai-2 period.
The SP rebounded off the old baseline which may act as a short term ceiling. This is currently close to 8.8p which was the old floor level a few times so probably better using that as the new ceiling guide. We watch and wait... again.

I'd agree with that timeframe. RNS on 26th was the completion of Tai-2 and start of Phase 2. A month and possibly another week to get their plans sorted and finalised; seeing what equipment and tests they would have access to and be able to perform. All we need now is for DM to tell us about it.

Just my opinion. Before the drill, we knew that helium was there due to the seeps. We thought that helium would only be trapped by an efficient sealing system and would need to find this. It appears that a few metres of clay/shale can act as an effective seal so pockets of helium could be found at shallower depths. We do not have confirmation of any flow data or the likely volume that would be stored in shallow traps however.

The market is waiting for confirmation of what the next steps are. We are waiting to see if we can get the 2D Seismic arranged before the rainy season in November, so this will not move the SP until it has begun or possibly closer to the 2D testing completing. We may also be doing geophysical testing of the shallower depths, but we have not received confirmation of this or the time it will take. I believe the market may move a little on this news, but until we know if we are going to be drilling the shallower depths or not (which would be on completion of at least some testing), the market is still waiting.

Hi KeithOz. In my opinion, a trendline before a significant event can indicate the market sentiment and momentum. Just because an event has occurred does not make all previous SP movement obsolete. Yes, there has been a fundamental change which has put the SP to the current levels. The old trend line - if there had been no change in market sentiment, could have put the SP around the current level even without the significant event.

Does this mean that the SP will change from it's current trading range and pattern? Definitely not. It does however provide me and others who look at charts with a timeframe where the market MAY review the current price and sentiment. The old trend's resistance has met the current trend's support.
Does the market see a greater support than resistance given the events that have occurred and push the price up?
Does the market determine that the SP was falling and there is no news to maintain the current support?
Or does it just ignore it and carry on with the SP movement of the past week?

I use the chart as a tool for estimating when there may be a change in the SP as well as a guide to historic levels. I am not saying that the SP will move with the trend, but that there may be some adjustment (up or down) at that time. Maybe not.

If anyone is trying to access that last chart, please remove the . at the end.

I am not sure what will happen to the SP on Monday when a trendline from the start of August comes in to play. That is showing a down trend and we know that tests need to be conducted before any drilling will be done, but I don't think it will just follow the trendline. It is rather steep so it may take the SP to a lower range if it has any impact. https://invst.ly/v--5v

I'm not sure there will be much price movement from the H&P report. They haven't said anything we didn't already know. We have $14m cash, we are doing 2D Seismic which will cost about $2m, we will be doing geophysical tests to identify where to possibly do shallow drilling and the drilling could be done during the rainy period. I think we will be around the current levels until an RNS comes out stating what the next step definitely is and when it will be.

8p has not been seen for over a week, so I would say the current range is 8.5p-9.5p. It could continue here for a while yet or move up on news. There is a chance it will drift until news comes, but we should know if that is likely by the 16th. There is enough interest to retain the current SP but I can't see this being maintained long term without some guidance from HE1. 16th is also when a trendline from the start of Tai-2 could come into play https://invst.ly/v--go.

@Dai
Not sure I would read too much in to the selling. The most recent price drop was after they published a trading update and the market didn't like it. They only entered the finances they were sure of getting next year and left a fair chunk out, but as the company has been besieged by setbacks, there is little value currently placed in prospective income.

If the September deadline for the bank is delayed again, it could drop - I have a baseline just above 0.25p https://invst.ly/vzo9e but doubt that will hold if there is another delay. If they get confirmation that the bank is in place, then your increase could very well happen. I think only the first transaction completing will really push the SP here though.

Possibly. The current range is 8p-9.5p which was in place before the director trades - don't think that will change anything. There will be a few weeks of testing to be done on various sites before any new drilling decisions is announced. Not sure it will hit 8p, but won't be surprised if it goes back down there a few times in the coming weeks.

Oh, go on.
I don't have funds for SYME yet, but still following what's going on over there.

Hi Fortnefvrsbrve

There are rules around when a director can or cannot trade. These fall under the Market Abuse Regulations, Insider Dealing offences and the Model Code. Basically, if they have information that has not been made public that could affect the share price, they should not be buying shares. If they are caught doing so, a criminal record, hefty fines or jail time could be the result.

For the ISA question, it would need to be kept separate. You could keep your own records of your overall share purchases and average price. An option may be to average down in an ordinary trading account and when you sell any shares, transfer that money next year to the ISA account. There is no way to add to this years limit though.

I couldn't remember the amount off the top of my head , but the 3D mentioned was to be conducted after a discovery had been made. No idea what area that covers. We will be doing a 2D survey which is much cheaper, but before drilling should we be doing 3D as well?

Ivuna & Korongo are about 70m below Tai's Altitude at about 810m ASL. Any prospect to the West of these could be a target. I'll need to look at where the infill 2D was as well as the historic 1000km they had.

I believe an Oil & Gas rig will be required for the deeper targets rather than a mineral rig and that could be £3M per hole. Before the deeper targets are drilled (and that will still be exploration), the company have made reference to a 2D Seismic survey of the area being completed beforehand. One of the posters here (SeismicPro?) suggested that a 3D Seismic survey would be a better option (approx £4.5M+?).

Before we can either get the O&G rig or arrange for 3D Seismic, we would need to raise funds. The last raise was at 10p and they raised £10M (although they cut this back from the £22M on offer) in April. The SP had just moved beyond 14p and pulled back over a few days to 12p before the placing. Within a week the SP had recovered its previous position and continued to climb. Hopefully any dilution will not be more than 15%-20% this time around either.

To get the price moving in a positive way again, phase 2 will need to be explained and the market able to see where progress can be made before sentiment returns. If it is possible for natural gas to be extracted from shallow discoveries, then the same should be the case for helium - I have no experience or information on this however. If the geological tests can identify where or where not to shallow drill, it will still take a while for the target zones to be tested and the data analysed. I'm not sure there will be much price movement until we have confirmation that shallow drilling is an option; phase 2 outlined to determine timescale and costs for any testing; and an outline of any drilling work (shallow or deep) released.

It looks like the market has taken the trading update as an Interim Statement.

We had confirmation that annual inventory monetisation fees will be paid in the next 4 months. The £3.9M-£4.9M estimated income for next year is only a small part as that is the confirmed revenue. Anything from the Captive Bank, Sharia and the ICC agreement have not been included.

It will go up again... eventually.

I think it's a new one. https://t.co/2x524sboMc?amp=1