Member Info for Glib

Once they compare the different test at Tai-1 and Tai-2 they may be able to start testing other targets - especially those that were originally identified in the 2D. If they do a winter drilling campaign after they have picked a few potential sites, then we might get back up to mid-high teens. Hopefully.

At 08:50 (@ 9.5p), it hit off a trend line taken from the last week of the highs, before the last drop.
It is now roughly following a trend line of the peaks since the drop.
https://invst.ly/vwt81

9.5p was pretty much missed out last time. Current range is 9-10 but there is stronger resistance at 8.8.
No idea if that will hold though.

I had wondered if we had only booked the rig for 3 months. As there was an option for an additional 4th hole, then maybe not, but I don't know anything about booking rigs and what those contracts entail. It would be weird to stop part way through a drill.

29th April - Mobilisation of drilling rig and equipment from locations in Tanzania and Mozambique to a forward holding yard
13th May - {Tweet} "the Rig has arrived at our camp!"
The original plan was to drill 3 holes taking about a month each.
12th June - Drilling started at Tai-1
11th August - RNS on the completion of Tai-1
19th August - RNS on the start if Ta-2 (Doesn't state when it was started)
26th August - RNS on the completion of Tai-2 (Doesn't state when it started or completed)

We haven't heard any mention of Mitchell Drilling - if we are continuing to use them and their lighter equipment. For both the shallow and deep options, it reads as though we will be doing testing before anything else so may be arranging new contracts and logistics. The site staff will probably need a break for a while too. That should give them plenty of time to let us know what Phase 2 is.

The Environmental Impact Statement Assessment covered an area of 320km² so drilling can still take place in this area. There might be a winter drilling programme, but we need to do testing and contract a new drill if we are replacing the current rig. To paraphrase DM, various testing techniques will first need to be performed before data from Tai-1 and Tai-2 can be contrasted - which may be able to identify gas in situ. Tai was not the only target identified by the infill 2D Seismic and hopefully they will be able to drill into the apex of some of those closures using the 2D and these other tests to hit a thick gas column.

If typical gas plays can find commercial gas at shallow depths then that would be encouraging, but I have no idea. We don't know if the shallower shows are being supplied with helium rising from deeper shows or if there is lateral flow and charge from the system. It seems like we will be in a testing phase for a while, so hopefully some of the questions will get answered.

It's like we have most of the border pieces of a jigsaw in place, but the picture has been obscured so we still don't know what we are looking at.

HE1 started trading in December at 4.25p and had £6m which was earmarked for 2D Seismic infill and drilling 3 wells
From January to end of March it traded between 6.8p-8.2p
In March we started the 150km 2D Seismic exercise (later extended to 200km)
Mid April we had a 10p Placing for £10m (SP had risen to 12p (briefly at 14p))

Having these funds enabled them to contract the current drill rig (capable of appraisal drilling). It also covered a 3D seismic programme and feasibility study of any discovery. As we have no discovery, it is now being used for more seismic (and possibly some drills). The SP and strategy almost mirror where we started from in January with the SP currently bouncing around 8p-9p.

We have information from the 200km of 2D Seismic, knowledge of the Tai stratigraphy and a better understanding of the drills required for both the shallower and deeper depths. Unfortunately we don't have any wireline data for the shallower and deeper depths. We only have that data from 880m to 400m (potentially) where the Tai-1 casing ended. We know that the Helium will rise from lower depths, but not move laterally at shallow depths, and that an efficient seal is not required for it to be effective. We were also unable to perform a Drill Stem Test to capture any samples.

From the admission document, the following costs can be referenced :
Working Capital and General & Administration expenses (G&A) £2,157,710
Infill 2D seismic work £692,300 (This was originally 100km-125km but ended up at 200km so possibly £1m?)
Licence fees £569,230 (We will need new permits for the 2D. We have some drilling licences but will more be required?)
Fieldwork £192,300
Drilling £1,461,540 (Originally 3 holes - the current rig was around £1m per hole but Tai-1 ran to around £1.4m)
Well evaluation £276,920

The Costs for work on discovery were estimated to be :
Appraisal well drilling: £2.4 million
Enhanced well completion: £0.5 million
3D seismic programme: £3.8 million
Feasibility Studies and licence fees: £1.2 million
Additional operational contingencies, working capital and expenses: £2.1 million

We don't know the extent of the seismic work that will be undertaken and we will require permits before that can start as well as arranging for the equipment, contracting etc. We have not been given any information on whether shallow drilling will be going ahead this year. If it does, I am not sure we have data to suggest that a discovery could be made from it. If we so drill, will we be testing different trap types as per the initial plan, or was there enough detail extracted from what was found at Tai-1? DM mentioned that for the cost of 1 O&G well they were able to drill 3 Helium wells which suggests if an O&G rig is required, the funds required could be substantial.

Hopefully we get some clarification soon, but right now it seems there will be a few months before anything really happens.

Yeah, got greedy as I saw this as a vehicle to recover losses from NCT/MYN/AOGL - the share HE1 reversed into. I made it too but tried to capitalise on the momentum. Rose tinted specs in the bin now.

Not sure much will happen here until news, but at least they are financed for whatever comes next. Just need to remember to always protect the principal invested.

It's taken me a while to digest this, but I broke too many of my own rules here.
Invested 90% of my portfolio here, didn't take out any profits when there were some and did not react when I saw the weird sells and reporting that was being made. I need to assume worst case scenarios with any future investments now.

I'm sorry for the losses everyone has incurred. I know some were hoping to derisk.

The current rig has a limit of 1200m I believe. So a different rig would be required if they were to drill deeper.
As DBD says, the helium comes through the crust but the deeper we drill, the more expensive it gets.
As helium is lighter than air, it is always trying to move upwards, which is why we do not need to drill so deep to find it.

What we don't know is where the helium is being trapped as free gas. There is no guarantee that this will have occurred at deeper levels where the heat and pressure are also greater.

It might close the gap that's at 12p then come back, but it's anyone's guess. As this drill is supposed to be shallower and they will not need to case at 400m (AFAIK) it should not take as long to complete. Hoping for a positive close to the week.

As there is no news expected until next week at the earliest, there is nothing keeping interest in the share - in the short term. At least I think this is the reason for the fall and downward momentum. I don't expect this to last long though and there is nothing on site that has changed. Drill is still turning and we know the Helium system is generating.

That information has not been released. The RNS stated they were investigating the Lake bed Formation which has an estimated base of approx 400m. The Show we were drilling when the string broke in Tai-1 was in the Red Sandstone Group which is below the LBF, so we don't know if this is also being tested. I don't think so, but just my opinion.

Their Options depend on it being on time, on budget and gas flow discovered.
DM will be pouring over all the data and planning the next step.

SCIR had less than 6m shares left according to their 27 July RNS.

@jam2morrow
It is possible that they were a worked buy, but for MM's to manipulate the SP by over 10% ?

I've never seen that before, but it is AIM. I thought it more likely to be a worked sell.

All we know is the figure was amended throughout the day - slowly being released late to the market driving the price down. Possibly MM's were instructed to sell at best price, so it was done in tranches but never seen it reported in this manner.

@myoung
I believe that was the total shares in issue at the time

27 July RNS from SCIR

Following the above transactions, Scirocco's holding in Helium One is 5,256,088 ordinary shares, which represents c. 0.85% of Helium One's currently issued share capital.

We don't know how many SCIR had as they were below the 3% threshold when they last reported.

Currently 615,498,925 shares in issue
Aim Rule 17: A holding of 3% or more in any class of AIM security (excluding treasury shares) and any increase or decrease in such holding through any single percentage point.

So we might not get a TR1 after all.

And now someone on twitter thinks it was a buy

Cheers Wyndrum.

I shouldn't have said I was "worried" about it.
I'M FREAKIN' TERRIFIED!

Nah, just wondered. I thought that might be a bit of a stretch, but today was also a surprise so...
Plenty of time to wait until the drilling and testing is complete. When Tai-1 started, there was a drop that was only arrested by news of the show. Not sure we'll get news until it completes so could have a few more days of these extremes.

At least I now know how to make a small fortune on the market.
Start with a big fortune.