The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
So from about 14:00, the SP has tried to fight its way back up. https://invst.ly/vde0z
It bounced off the trend line, but will it :
a) keep climbing tomorrow to get back to 25p-25.5p where it finished last week?
b) climb back to the highs around 27p?
c) stay at the trend line or below?
I think it will drift around where it closes, so A for me.
For a second there I wondered why you posted a closeup of an aero.
I thought we would have reached this point earlier, but wasn't expecting that initial rise on Monday. Head and shoulders formation almost complete - may do so tomorrow as per your chart. It has followed a fairly set trend since it started coming down but didn't think we would see the lower section of this channel. https://invst.ly/vdbun
Not having a go at you Phantom, but this board is a breathe of fresh air compared to some other toxic ones. Just don't want to see it going that way.
When the last RNS came out, the SP dropped - initially around 1p. Only for a day, but it baffled the hell out of me. I don't see any negatives in the post and not going to try "reading between the lines". They are just stating that there won't be anything reported until there is something to report.
Woah, when did this become a cat club?
Just because a new poster offers their opinion of an event does not make it open season on them. There was no "advising" in that post. Just opinion. Can we tone it down a bit? They made a simple mistake transposing hydrogen with helium - not the end of the world and they have not written anything that other posters have not already alluded to.
If Helium is moving through the system, then it must be coming from lower down. At 70.5m there would not be much pressure to push the Helium through the rock, so it must be rising. That doesn't mean there is a large quantity of it, but it is encouraging to see it at that depth.
I agree that this is nowhere near a guarantee. There is Helium. We have known that from the seeps. We don't know how much Helium there is or the concentration. The silence had me concerned at first, but if they have better shows and report that - they may still end up not having a reservoir so more show data wouldn't really achieve anything.
I think this may be de-risked to a binary hit/miss level now. I'm optimistic, but aware of the risks. I don't know if other countries do company interviews the same way we have here. He was CEO of ScandiVanadium for 2 years, so he knows what the job entails. Whether the interviews are a good idea or not, I'm just happy to be in a share that actually provides update to shareholders outwith the financial reports.
The only thing I found that may be of use in this regard comes from 2013.
Kibo mining were about 800km North of Rukwa (around lake Victoria).
Their target was to average 40mpd but achieved 70mpd. I don't know if this was drilling time only or for the full duration of the drilling period. I also don't know what drill/rpm they had access to, but it wasn't a million miles away from my 60m guestimate.
For anyone new to gas units, blame the Romans:
1 Mcf = 1 thousand cubic feet
1 MMcf = 1 million cubic feet
1 Bcf = 1 billion cubic feet
1Tcf = 1 trillion cubic feet (although our top estimate is we have only half of one of these)
So is this DM collecting footage for his November (or whenever it is) presentation? Will he go round each piece of equipment and tell us the process? That opening title seems to suggest this is not a one-off piece.
As we are so near to the RNS being released, the unknowns play a much larger role, so my apologies if I start going off on tangents. Starting with the basics - we are trading in an upward channel (some of you may have noticed). The full range of that channel is currently 19.9p-28.7p. I expect us to move in the top half of that channel. https://invst.ly/vc75b
Now, what could the SP do in the short term? At the start of last week, we thought we would getting news on the wireline logging. The SP then tried to make us seasick - going up and down and up and down and up and down and side to side... and that was when news was due. We are in a slightly different situation now as the news is different, but we still don't know when the news will land. That could be important.
My take is that this will be traded until news released, so on mornings without news I think it will go down, with people topping up and buying back in during the afternoon. So we'll potentially see more peaks and troughs although maybe with higher highs and higher lows - the overall trajectory will still be upwards.
When is the biggest question and that will depend on the average rate of drilling. For a while I have said around 60mpd would be good going. I may be more, it may be less, but that's my estimate.
19th - we were at 55m and had the show at 70.5m. Say we were doing 60mpd, would take us to 115m
23rd - DM travelled to the site. At 60mpd, possibly finished at 355m
24th - We hit 400m but don't do the wireline logging. We case the hole to that depth and pour cement.
25th-26th - Allow cement to dry
27th June - 9th July we hit 460m, 520m, 580m, 640m, 700m, 760m, 820m, 880m, 940m, 1000m, 1060m, 1120m, 1180m
10th July we hit 1200m - which I think SlowRoll advised was actually Helium Day. This is a Saturday
11th - Spend the weekend cleaning the hole, wireline testing and doing the Drill Stem Test with the packer to try to get a flow sample?
News on the 12th, or is that too soon?
At 70mpd we would reach 1200m on the 7th. We'd still need to do the tests, so possibly still not getting results until Monday 12th or so.
If this week is another week of trading then the fluctuations will be back. Looking at the chart, dropping back to mid 24's to complete the head and shoulder formation is quite possible; but only for a day or two. I would hope Wednesday closed at 29.5p-31p but with the potential daily fluctuations, the range could be greater. https://invst.ly/vc777
Please DYOR. This is only my opinion. I am NOT rich, handsome, charismatic...
After it gapped up today at 08:10 I could not find any pattern or trend that was being followed. This is moving on sentiment alone, which is a bit unusual. The SP is now what it was a week ago, which kind of makes sense as we were waiting on news being released a week ago; but other than that - I got nothing. https://invst.ly/vb-3h
Not sure how many days of drilling are left but I think we can expect some large price movements in the days to come.
Exciting stuff.
When I heard about the Wireline being cancelled, I thought it may be more to do with DM being a Geologist. Once he got on site, Randy took him aside and had a quiet word with him - explaining that it would add days of delay to completion of the well and if they wanted to run wireline at that depth after completion, it would just be a case of breaking the casing, then taking readings. At least I'm assuming it was more to do with the drilling practicalities.
Thanks Jonesy. We're making metres a week and getting things done...
Couldn't he have said how many metres a day they were doing? lol
If we allow for 2 days to get the casing done and the cement dried:
60mpd gets us to 1200m on 9th July
70mpd gets us to 1200m on 7th July
80mpd gets us to 1200m on 5th July
Possibly 2 days to clean the hole, send down the wireline, try a packer flow test and determine the results?
Not sure if we will get the news we are waiting for next week or not, but I'm hoping for some kind of news.
No, I'm not bored and starting a game. I have listened to DM's interview a few times and cannot make out what he is saying at the start. Not sure if it was a connection glitch or the video was edited. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaEvQ2oGPno&t=23s
"I'm in the Rukwa Basin. We're ... getting things done"
Here's a little update on the chart situation. What happens after the trends cross on the 5th & 8th will let us see what way the SP is going to go. 20p-29p is the rough spread and we are currently right in the middle of that. The chart ends at 4pm on the 12th. News will of course change this, but as we get closer to the Target Depth and results from Wireline Logging and Drill Stem Test, the SP will rise in anticipation. https://invst.ly/vbewp
Have a good weekend folks.
I'm hoping for an RNS on Monday. Nothing definitive, but so far we only have an unsubstantiated show in mud, the plan for wireline logging has changed and we were supposed to be getting regular news flow throughout the drilling programme.
[At approximately 6:30pm local time on Saturday 19th June, at a depth of 70.5 metres, the Helium One mud logging crew detected helium in mud at a concentration of 22,084ppm (2.2%) He. The gas show is situated at the base of a 20 metres thick shale unit and persisted at >10,000ppm (>1%) He for 4-6 meters. Readings were made on the Micro Gas Chromatograph only, which had not yet been calibrated in the field.]
I would like confirmation of the show (not that I envisage any issues)
An update of what the drilling plan now is (as not every shareholder will see the Proactive interview)
If possible, an update on depth drilled and any further shows.