The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Not the news we were hoping for. Hopefully the next drill will be better - it should be faster now we known some of the strata we will be dealing with.
We should see the SP bounce back to just below its position before Tai drilling was announced. Not looked at what that was yet though. First target on looks to be around 16p. https://invst.ly/vpqks
SP has fallen slightly further than I projected (the lows from the 2nd and 3rd), but think we will start to see the SP turning around now. https://invst.ly/vox6e
I don't think this dip will be sustained and the downward trend has been reducing since 11:30. There was a larger fall at 13:20 that took us to where we are now but the price has not gone below this. https://invst.ly/vox85
I think we may be back to 27.2p by close at the blue dashed line which is a long-term trend.
The older baseline trend (green line) is now being tested as it crosses the resistance level (red line). The SP will either follow the green line upwards (before the weekend) or follow the red line to stay within the red/pink triangle - which is a more recent baseline trend. https://invst.ly/vo04q
I think SP will now rise until the end of the day.
Hopefully we see a bit of movement in the SP soon. We almost had a breakout around 8:45 but this was quickly brought bacl into the current channel. We are getting close to the end of 2 possible pennants, so one of them will have to fail. As both are moving upwards, will the downward pressure give way instead? https://invst.ly/vnx9l
When I hear of the entire basin being derisked, I think it is because we now know an unknown.
Due to the seeps, we know that Helium is there.
What we don't know is if the helium is being trapped in commercially viable concentrations.
If this turns out to be the case at Tai (we will need to wait until the appraisal is complete to get an idea of flow rate and reservoir size), it shows that similar trap styles in the basin may also hold commercial quantities that we can access. So the risk that the helium may not be getting stored is removed - and this can be factored in to other drill site projections.
By my estimate, at an average of 25mpd we would be around 1050m. At 30mpd we would have reached TD an starting to run tests. I will need to look out some Gas Explorer RNS' to see if there is any info on how long these take to do any how long before results are made known. It would be different for oil so need to remove some keywords in the search.
If we were to do a wireline test of the 400m zone (or part of it), they send down a tool to blast holes in the casing first. Then send down the wireline tool.
As far as I am aware there is no mention of a second drill location as yet. I may have been in error on assuming Tai-1 was the first of 3 drills at the Tai prospect which is 2km wide by 5km long. I suppose it will be Itumbula or Kasuku next if we are only drilling 1 hole per site. It seemed odd to write off an entire prospect if one hole failed.
@Craignews
I was probably not as clear as I should have been in my post. Yes we are fully financed for 3 exploration drills and the appraisal well drills with an optional 4th. I thought the 3 drills were going to be at Tai hence my comment "we are only currently financed for exploration and appraisal drilling at the Tai site". I may be wrong on that - do we know where the other drills are supposed to be if not at Tai? I probably assumed this as the drill has been designated Tai-1 which suggests (to me) there will be more than one drill at the site so they need an individual identification rather than just calling the drill Tai. I could be wrong.
As I am talking utter rubbish, could you fill in the blanks? My research is obviously not good enough.
Totally agree SeagullsFan
While we have 3 sites, we are only currently financed for exploration and appraisal drilling at the Tai site. Our first drill hole is Tai-1. It was supposed to take approx. 1 month per drill, but Magoo247's comment about drilling while preserving the structure of the payzones makes a lot of sense - it's not a case of getting as deep as possible as fast as possible. The appraisal drilling should go faster as we will know exactly what the geology and probable depths of the various rock types are which we are just learning about from this drill. What we learn from this hole will help speed up the drilling of all the others.
If a commercial discovery is made (we are at exploration stage - still to do appraisal), it will take about 12-18 months to get the the site ready, environmental impacts done and permits in place. Can't remember timeline from the presentation now. We may start the process while drilling the other sites, but it will not be a case of a few months.
If all that was required for them to make a market was to match people wanting to sell at a certain price with people wanting to buy, it would be automated. It isn't automated because they are after their own pound of flesh along with the transaction fees for each purchase and each sale. Call it the vig if you like but they are there to do more than just make a market - they are there to make as much profit as possible for their bosses.
I'd say the chances were pretty good of closing at 26.5 - especially after the closing auction.
Some people can't follow chart lines on a candlestick graph https://invst.ly/vle4j
So here it is on a straight line area graph. https://invst.ly/vle6j
@SteadyDanny
I do not think we are testing the "spoil" or any gravel that comes up with the mud. I believe however that during the appraisal stage, they will be taking core samples, so imagine some testing will be done then.
I'll try not to be too derampy. Hmm... solid or superlative findings.
Well, some quotes from the most recent interview:
"very significant gas show"
"It doesn't have to be an efficient seal to be an effective seal"
"Possibility for us to discover plenty of additional gas shows"
"We've had fantastic indications of Helium and we haven't even tested our primary horizons yet"
"We've got a clear indication of a working helium system"
To go from 480m to 1200m would take 3.5 weeks (25 days) if they are doing 30m per day.
We found out about the delay and reset to 483m on the 12th. "The sidetracking operation has been a success and we're continuing to drill down now" - so drilling had commenced by at least the 12th.
Do we have 8 days left to get to target depth? I think less.
If we were drilling 30mpd from the 19th, we would have hit 400m on the 1st - then 2 days to pour and set the cement. 561m would have been hit on the 8th at the depth the drill string was lost.
At 35mpd, 561 would have been hit on the 5th.
Would they have taken more than a couple of days for the fishing? I think after they failed to get it past the casing at 400m they would have just called it. To go from 480m to 1200m would take 21 days at 35mpd and 24 days at 30mpd.
How long do the tests take to perform and interpret? I'm guessing a day for the cleaning of the hole and running the tests. Then a day to check and analyse the results to determine what is there. Not sure if they need to send the flow sample away for testing but they do have equipment on site so for now I think this would not be required for a discovery to be announced.
We may need to wait until next week for news, but that is not guaranteed. I will not be selling any shares. My chart differs slightly from Joshwaa's, but basically shows the same thing. The trend for the past few months has been maintained with a slight fall in the last few days which has now corrected. The blue line trend has been in place since April and has settled there again. https://invst.ly/vkkky
I have no idea what drove the price up today unless there are quite a few finally deciding on taking a position. I was not too pleased to see the gap up at 23.5p just before lunchtime. The market usually corrects that, but did not do so on this occasion. We may see a candle tomorrow with a really long stem closing that - I don't see the SP going back down there with so little time left. Mind you, I didn't think the SP would go below 22p. https://invst.ly/vkkmr
GLA DYOR BYOB