Panthera Res. Share Chat (PAT)

Looking at todays gold price. & what we can expect the revised claim value to be.

1/5 ( give or take) settlement way to low.

But considering my average I wouldn't moan too much.

I also don't think 250m is reasonable.

But if it gets the deal done and I 2.5x that is fine.

I would just put it on another case that could double.

Good to be flexible in the strategy IMHO.

In spite of the fact that thje award is unlikely to be close to the demanded amount, US$250 million after costs doesn´t seem to be reasonable, it would mean that a government could expropriate a very valuable resource from an investor and pay a very small amount. A fraction of its potential value that has been determined by a public auction. Even if an award has to be reasonable in terms of capital spent but also opportunity cost, US$250 milliom just doesn´t meet the criteria. I am working with what I think is very conservative which is 250 million pounds net as a bare minimum.

I would like the max. But honestly If we walked away with 250 usd after costs I would be fine, even 210

I would just put it in another case and go again

@deckchair66, for what it's worth I think any settlement offer over $400M, whilst low compared to the overall claim value, would be given serious consideration by the company.

Been a while since we nudged 22.. hope it’s not a blip and we are starting to see a move back north…

Https://open.substack.com/pub/triplesinvesting/p/my-current-arbitration-holdings-in?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=24u473

Thanks for letting us know.

The buying today is probably driven by the Charles archer substack article.

Good morning all

Hopefully start of rerate north. Been in touch with Mark who is planning to visit mid June so hopefully will get a chance to meet him

GLA

The number of trades and volume up a bit this morning.

Gold heading north...maybe linked to the better news coming out today.

End of July I think.

Thanks to @NoTimeTouLouse for posting and the subsequent comments primarily from @Gallmat of which I pretty much wholeheartedly agree.

In relation to settlement, I hope as we all do for early settlement but I only attribute a 1% to 2% chance of that in my thinking. For an Indian civil servant or politician to stand up and propose to give say, even as low as $500m to settle, will see your reputation sealed as the giver away of money, not the pragmatic provider of a smooth and lesser consequence. And that is before you even consider the powerful people who stand to gain out of the appropriation and are trying to grift a serious amount of money. This is a claim for a scary amount of money and that is often linked to scary people with scary moral boundaries. It would be career, political and possibly even actual suicide to try and drive through a settlement I fear - hence my low expectation.

That said, I hope I am wrong! Am I right in thinking that the next arbitration deadline is sometime towards the end of June?

Hope so, must be in everyones interests to settle.

Yes agreed Gall.

For any newbies, after we got nowhere with the local courts in India, ( please read all rns on this!) by default it has now becomes a Government of India problem.

My personal thoughts would like it to be, that when the penny drops they might make an offer.

If you look at the actions of india.

1. Making agreements with us.

2. Marking out the claim

3. Giving silly arguments in court

4. Drilling out deposit. Spending money for us.

5. Bragging about its value

6. Proving the value of it via auction while we are suing them.

It's clear there is no high power in india coordinating the decisions. Just a Web of chaos from lots of different department taking strange isolated decisions.

Sadly for india they are responsible for trying to defend this mess as being sensible. There is no reason to expect it to be sensible.

Looking at the charts, it definitely feels like PAT is now set to trickle up over the coming months, in anticipation of December's excitement, if not earlier

Insane also checking in.

My thoughts also went to the possibility of the sniff of an early settlement being in the offing. Time will tell...

The other point for buying now is the possibility ( no matter how small a chance that is) of an early settlement.

Insane checking in...

Mines are also starting to get financed in mali.

Our mining assets are non core. But if you asked me 1yr ago about people building mines i would have said no.

Some activity is always nice, as a spin out might not be dead..but again it is not something I bank on

https://www.mining.com/web/second-mali-gold-mine-scores-backing-from-former-olam-exec/

I was in this around 7s.

Purchased a little more today rupert resourced has 2.1bn takeover for 4m oz. 500 usd an oz ingrown value.

Grade and mine type is similar to bhukia.

Just feels like panthera trading at 10 usd an oz is off. As more and more M and A hits the Conservative case ( which is what panels give) gets stronger

Re last posted trade yesterday.

Best buy price for a while I think, especially for such a big lump.

All investment banks and market commentators see gold staying strong.

Our claim was submitted when gold was just breaking 3k. Banks like JP Morgan have long term gold price forecasts at 4.5k. So the price used in our claim is conservative by todays pricing.

While an out of court settlement is unlikely, I do wonder about a scenario in which, following our resubmitted claim based on recent sky-high gold prices, India panics over a fear of prices crashing back to what they were this time last year (or even earlier), and so decides that settling now and starting the extraction while prices are high outweighs the current plan of contesting all the way and then only commencing extraction at a point when prices may have plummeted - they end up with the worst of both worlds then. Admittedly this is a long shot given the current political climate.

It boring but its going to be worth the wait.

Maybe some kalaka news, but it needs to be wrapped into news about a spin out to have impact.

I love the stock but it is boring :)

I got a few more. Nothing major.

Somebody seems to keep topping up most days at 16.35 UCT

Anyone still topping up?I thought I had enough but got to get more at this price.

I think Panthera are struggling purely off the back of poor sentiment of the funder LCM who are hanging on for dear life after announcing losses of over 100m the other day. I don't think Panthera have been explicit enough about what would happen if LCM go bust. I.e. would they raise cash (at a depressed rate) if LCM go bust to see them through to a decision? Or would they rely on the fact that LCM should be able to sell the case on so they do not require any funding? I think people not knowing means they just avoid investing.

Yes looks like the correction is done and it builds again.

It's interesting because they seem to have funded a new case last week.

If the creditors are knocking on the door you would think they would stop cash leaving.

Big of a sad situation because they just had a bad run.

I don't disagree with any of you, I just think its an unwanted distraction at the moment and probably keeping a bit of a downer on the share. If LIT went bust and for whatever reason couldn't sell on the case, then providing PAT sold the story correctly, and did a fund raise at a good price, we would all be better off, as i'm sure the dilution would be more than offset by the cut of the award due to LCM. LCM are priced to go bust imminently with a market cap of just 4m now.

The funding issue has been covered many times.

Lcm even funded a new case in the mining sector so if they are commiting cash to new cases there is no issue. Same guy managing that case manages ours and he has won 2/2 in mining

The last time there was a question mark around LCM funding, Mark released an RNS (8th Oct) iterating that approx. half the funds had been drawn down and LCM were committed to providing the rest. If that situation changes, I'm sure we'll be informed.

I'm not concerned about the other cases, nor the residual funding. For md, the fundamentals are unchanged.

I'm sure that if Mark needed to raise funds here to cover the remaining legal costs he would be able to, and it may actually be in our favour to do so as it would lessen the cut of any award provided to LCM.

From memory we have had about 8 million from the 13 million pounds the worst case scenario is a discounted raise which at this level would increase the share count by 10 to 15% . That would be annoying but not a disaster by any means holding for gold (pun intended).

Definitely @ Nom.

I think the mm's filled some orders, with the twitchers selling to help this.

We have been through all sorts of shenanigans with the courts in India.

An election in India.

Probably other stuff which I have forgotten about.

But as MB said in his last interview it's all down hill now.

Interesting few comments in last interview about potential early settlement, personally I don't care either way. I doubt PAT would accept a low offer.

I still haven't made my mind up about selling before award, but even if I do, it will won't be all my holding.

The main objective is now an update on the claim.

Don't forget the claim is NET...good move there by PAT.

Hold for gold everyone.

21p rather.

Nice to see the SP rise from 16p to 20p in the last few days. Especially considering Trump’s chaos still prevalent.

A year of trawling through the evidence for due diligence and then a raised guarantee to 13 point something million suggest they rate it at a higher than 60% chance of success to me.

Had a good listen to the Sunday brunch podcast with mark yesterday… as a reminder, you shouldn’t need to wait to decision day if you don’t rate the chances of winning… the sp ‘should’ rise to 20-30% of the claim amount before that… (probs enough for me to take out most and leave in just a few shares).

Also interesting was that the claim value was pieced together by an external company… not PAT and not LCM… and they intend to plug in the gold price at time of award to give a new award amount. Gold was at 3000 at the time the original calc was done and now sits around 4400… ‘a material rise’.

I’ve got powder dry for if we drop to 14….

PK

Lit would not be funding unless we have around a 60% chance of getting a decent return. It just a waiting game.

@Rotherby1 the chances of success are impossible to determine and there is not much point even in attempting. We know the case is solid as third party funding was provided after extensive DD was conducted by experts in this area. Whether it's a 50%, 30% or 80% it does not matter at this stage.

What is clear is that we are now trading at around 4% of the claim and that ahead of the ruling the SP of companies in similar situations tend to move towards 20-30% of that. Even 10% would mean at least doubling today's SP. You can easily buy now and sell a few days/weeks before the end of the arbitration without risking much. The only surprise could be if the parties agree on a settlement, which would still be for an amount much higher than the $50M of today. The assets in africa are a rounding figure in the scheme of things and Mark is probably trying to offload them. Finally, the claim will be updated around July and the amount is likely to be significantly higher. This temporary drop is a great buying opportunity IMHO

As silly as it sounds, I feel this is a bit of a safe haven when it comes down to what’s happening in the world markets at this moment.

Yes, just listened, but paid promotion, would love to hear from a knowledgeable pi on both the chances of the arbitration and the prospect of the projuactsvin Africa not sure about mali are they likely to nick it if they find anything

Just a mass market sell off. Clearly nothing changed.

Yes I agree @ejt7777. I think both our response (which I would argue is nailed on already) and an updated claim well north of 2bn (after tax and before interest) SHOULD be a catalyst for the start of a rerate.

These are AIM games to put doubt in your mind.

For me PAT has always been on this timeline and I always planned to ignore the SP until q4 2026. I’m not a trader, and I’ve never sold a share here since I first bought in 2021. In for the long haul based on fundamentals only.

I was hoping for a bit of a nudge up after the last RNS, although it's no biggie as I'm in until Q4 at least.

Agree that fundamentals are unchanged and we should nudge up towards fair market value as the case progresses.

I'd hope that Panthera's response on 17 July with updated claim should kick start things, if not before.

Thank you all for your responses. Yes, I think this is largely a matter of patience. Must try to be patient!

Lol mm's! Spell check!

That’ll be done as part of the company’s response: an updated claim. So end July.

Are we expecting the claim value V gold price to be updated in July or before/after ?.

I have topped up recently.

Great share to hold at these prives and circumstamces.

80p is probably good enough for now. Probably they revise it when we recalculate our claim.

All good ( bit boring) but all good

Vsa capital have issued a new research note, though. Sticking with their 80p valuation.

Can't send a link as mine is behind a paywall but sure youll find it if you google it.

I think the market makers in usa are not holding much stock. Trading is coming via this listing

I am curious to see of there’ll be more volume OTC in the US as by now attendees of the conference have had time to digest and with calendar confirmation we are closer to the finishing line.

Just seen the spot price of gold on abc bullion is nudging $5700.

The longer this goes on, the greater the incentive for GoI to settle out of court as any award is getting more expensiv3 for them by the day.

So calm!

7am tomorrow we’ll hopefully be updated. anybody that’s long term here never really expected the update on Friday!😁 but we all know for sure we’ll be updated in due course!

Yup - no panic stations and we can all pretty much guess the wording of the RNS already.

Panthera is my most relaxed investment.

It is a sign the holders are ready to bank real gains.

Great to see how the board changed

Ha indeed - I think we learnt from last time with the SOC! It'll come when it comes...

Yup it was pretty much well know stuff. A few bits mainly on background of deposit and his prior work but I think everyone following here is up to date.

If there was anything super important he would put it in an rns, so nothing really changed

My guess is that even if settlement talks were ongoing, and I discount it then panthera would still keep the process rolling.

You want to build pressure in a negotiation not give the other side breathing room

I haven;t yet watched the presentation, only the Q&As but i didnt add anything i learned yesterday in my previous comments. It's all well known stuff

Any delay could signal settlement talks in my opinion. India arent going to be in good books if they start delay tactics, makes them look less credible.RNS Monday is my guess too.

One thing on the presentation. Given it was a paid for event I am not sure we should really put all the info out in public domain.

Just my view. I don't think it is fair to the organisers.

It is probably worth remembering the deadline for India is tomorrow. The market shuts before the end of the working day so we might get an rns on Monday.

I know for SOC we had some worries over this, not getting rns on deadline day. So I am looking for new on Monday!

I am still hopeful for a mini delay for a cheap top up :) but it seems less likely now!

The presentation was excellent best marl did.

I am probably not going to share too much as it was a paid event and the organiser has been on the telegram channel and it is not fair to give out his content.

One thing of interest was Mr Bolton has 1m usd at 20p from shares he purchased with own money.

So if you want ceo alignment you have it!

For the rest I would recommend you subscribe to the conference

Actually just checked in on the telegram channel. Thx all.

Crossing fingers that the otc sp being 16% up today is the result of the conference rather than just the top of the trading range…

Any news on marks section, chaps?

Pk

Https://x.com/i/status/2026593377806959013

If india keep this deadline we are in a good place. As you say we will meet the timeline so we would be effectively on time for 3/4 of the process.

The final response from India should also be a smaller document, this is the big one

Let's see what happens

Agreed but I think the sheer amount of due diligence and the fact that this can potentially be a really big winner with most of the money already spent, make it very unlikely. Let’s see if India responds on time. I am told that a small delay is not unusual or material but obviously prefer it to be on time. Panthera’s response and updates claim will be on time, that I don’t doubt.

Actually I would love lcm to try and sell this case on to solve their issues. It would be a real validation :)

If lcm could not meet their commitment, then most likely I expect they would default on some of their return.

We could easily raise the money as I think as 63pct is already drawn. That is worst case. Most likely someone like burford would step in. They get the return and most of the work and waiting is done and can see the other sides arguments.

I think people are just waiting to see if india responds.

Honestly could this be better. Highest gold price ever ( not expected) trial in Dec. I think it is aim being aim

I have the impression that the difficulties at LCM are weighing on PAT even if most of it has been funded and PAT would have no difficulty in self funding with associated larger return for its shareholders. That being said, the LCM soap opera should be coming to an end, its strategic review is taking a long time but the recent extension of the credit line, including an additional US$25 million and a Maech 1st deadline might indicate that this is coming to an end.

Personally I don't even consider early settlement. It is the best solution like a golden ticket. If it arrives great, and however it looks it is brilliant.

Cannot build a strategy on it. Just hold and wait for trail date

A full settlement would extinguish arbitration and would likely come with payment deadlines attached.

Question: should an out-of-court settlement offer be received, what would happen to the arbitration process?

Presumably it would continue in parallel or be paused pending offer acceptance and payment?

I imagine the share price would settle at minus 10-15% of the award amount allowing an exit for people holding now to get outta there.

I key reason for holding pat is that we face india. I am not sure it should be viewed as a negative.

India have paid in the past, have foreign assets, are a huge country and value their position on the world stage.

When choosing cases I had a choice of india or a poor Africa country. This is a key reason foe me selecting pat

Well done all !, we made it to 1 week before the deadline without a there is a delay from India.

Never say never, but it would probably be bad form for india to pull out a delay with 5 working days to go.

If they did it I imagine the panel would not exactly be impressed!

Anything can happen and this is the best setup we could have. Gold high, fast trial, no bifurcation and no hint of india messing around ( yet)

EML

Look for Marcin Michalek on X.

VSA will start to cover it after they submitted their memorial.

That also will be in the bn-s. And expected maybe in a few weeks.

If you are interested in litigation and arbitration stories I recommend checking in Swen Lorenz's online conf.

https://x.com/i/status/2023334610931769588

https://x.com/i/status/2024030307649741179

Thanks. Do you by any chance know the ticker code?

Go to their board lots can help you there. I know the stock

In the VSA snippet another company was mentioned. I think they said Emerson. Does anyone know anything about this.

Here

Suggest. Going site. Only 50 a year and it is superb

The ticket cost is 50.

Without membership it is 100. So take membership as well. Good picks!

https://www.undervalued-shares.com/special-offers/events/litigation-investing-legal-special-situations/

How do we sign up to this conference galmat

If there is a reaction it comes next week. Circa 300 people signed up for the online litigation conference next Wed. Maybe that builds some interest that can be released when india respond.

I did my top ups around 20

Glad to see a little nudge up from 20p.

Anyone got access to L2 to see whether there is any notable action?

Does anyone know what timr the deadline is on the 27th please?

I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get the RNS until the week of Monday 2nd March.

7 more working days until response.

Everyday or no rns is a little celebration

Some reasonably big trades this arvo… not sure whether they were buys or sells. I suspect a negotiated buy.

In reply to an earlier post...potential in ground....I think I am correct in saying it was mentioned once as a possible 20 million Oz mine.

Lets stay grounded, until we hear otherwise.

The 15-30% estimates are based on the claim amount, not the award. Investors never know how high a potential award will be, standard to base it on claim amount and likelihood of success.

Matt my mistake Englishnis not my first language, honestly I couldnt really understand what you asked...

But one thought: market are not efficient. Especially not in smaller not totally liquid stocks.

Anywhere we are/ will be at mcap it doesnt strictly mean the market or investors priced in chances probabilities in my view.

I mean we can calculate from mcap and sp bavkwards , but its not.the result or resultant of exact math. I believe there is more incidentality in the decision making of the individual investors. At least at this stage. Maybe closer to hearing and judgement the sp would represent more some cumulative wisdom, and might be closer to any fair probability based valuation.

My view.

Yes that’s fair, there’s many more things to factor in, it’s just which we choose I guess

Even if it was at spot on that day(which I don’t think) there’s been plenty of upside since then, 2026 should be super interesting.

I don’t personally think the next few updates will make much difference to the SP directly, but any progress RNS is almost like a reminder, I think there must be many more “active” investors on the sidelines waiting for the later stages coming up later in the year, ready to pull money from elsewhere for a potential run up in price

I think Mattm, we all have to apply our own discount in our own calculations to a potential award.

The one thing I personally think, when the claim was published, I very much doubt that it was calculated at spot on that day.

If u check the video from Penny queen there is a moment the ceo said at end calc is simple. PxQ

Not me saying it. Let's leave it here. Just pointing out info from video. Not trying to mislead or anything. Been here for years. Just pointing out things that are public.

A royalty is usually a percentage of the production, that is mathematically linear. The claim is based on an assumed gold price and that has obviously changed and will be re-stated. That is nin-linear. The royalty is the end result of the process. Obviously. You can´t calculate the royalty without having the value of the claim. In any case, iot´s not even 100% clear what value a royalty model has if not just to present the NPV of the claim. The disservice is in the name of being conservative not understanding correctly how a claim is calculated, access to the CEO or not.

Discuss it with ceo ( I have)

The only impact in a royalty of gold price is linear to price and quantity is determined by cutoff for pit design.

The ceo is open to discussing with investors which is a huge plus to pat.l. I don't really want to get into a technical argument, just trying to make sure estimates are grounded.

Non sequitur. If anything your argument is on the side of being non linear. There is an AISC (All in Sustaining Costs) is relatively fixed because there is a lot of material at that grade. Hence just impossible to have a linear relationship. But I rest my case.

The fact bhukia is so good you take everything has been confirmed in interviews. I think with penny queen.

Thw panel might put x pct on our calc, y pct on others. Clearly if they look at comparable such as in ground values or market prices of other miners, of course their valuations should act in a non linear way to gold price.

TBH with gold at 5k, even a linear exposure is huge so I don't factor more than this in. If I am wrong it will come out when they revalue the claim as upside and TBH it does not change the buy decision today.

It's also worth noting we will be 20m closer at trial date and that can have a big impact from time value of money. Probably the project has a decent discount factor applied