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Agree. I think the company can say they are very comfortable with broker estimates.
When releasing the NOA they can also explain why it is delayed in detail. With reasonable commentary everyone can be more comfortable
Even without a final figure attached to the NoA, 7.6 million oz Confirmed gold,
plenty of copper plus other off takes.
Surely the market should react to these resources?
I think the last brokers notes worked on $750 million dollars.
As I have said not ideal not having a final figure attached but we at least know the minimum..plus of course as I understand the meter is running all the time
Started: topsharepicks, 20 Jun 2024 14:36
Last post: topsharepicks, Today 14:22
THE ONLY REASON IS TO ALLOW THE NEW MINES MINISTER TO GET IN THE OFFICE AND READ THE HISTORY FILE THEN MAKE A OPINION
NOA should be submitted within 10 days
Guys. I also chatted to CEO.
Not much to add beyond what prof said.
He emphasised that everything is for a reason and i believe he wants to also get moving.
A good time to top up before the herd then.
Should've been clearer in my message - apologies.
I'm expecting an update re: settlement or NoA to be issued this quarter. Based on Prof's feedback, I'm not expecting the claim amount to be formalised for another 6 months (min)
given noa is available. dilution is known to be **** as is waiting.
why would mb wait if nothing was potentially happening.
the only logical conclusions are
a) some engagement is happening
b) lawyers asked for a longer waiting period so it did not %&&& up the case. last thing you want is to start a process then 1yr later be told you did not engage and have another 6m+!
Started: Borell, 20 Jun 2024 09:11
Last post: Gallmat, 20 Jun 2024 09:42
Commenting on this TOI number i dont think is ramping, infact it corrects investor expectations who could think something is wrong ( due to the delay). We also introduced it into our RNS.
I conveyed all the above. I think the company would like to say more but ultimately if they cannot it must be for a good reason driven by lawyers or another situation!
I have to finally say it is still confusing when some indication of a range, especially when there are broker estimates and TPI estimates out there is so bad.
Explaining we are finalising numbers when doing NOA and stating it is complex. But we can say scenarios covering 7m oz gold like the TOI based on at 1bn+ are within the set we look at.
That is just commenting on a number in public domain that might or might not be misleading to investors
I spoke to the CEO to convey this message.
While it does not fundamentally change anything, such things do not sit well with small cap stocks.
The reality os management of the case seems to be ( rightly) by co agreement. Lawyers ( fraskens, lit) and panthera.
Shareholders want a good short term, medium term and long term result. Most likely the lawyers will not be keen on actions to keep shareholders dancing in the short term if it impacts the case. And a sensible CEO ( ours) should follow advice.
I am hoping there is something nice on kalaka and maybe the reason for waiting might surface.
Reality is we are funded for 6m so waiting does not cost us much ( claim grows). Just annoying because we expected it earlier and we all have strategies for building wealth
Great info from the prof, but I fear comments about the process taking another 6 months to file ( for good reasons) may make a few jump and then return later. The markets are fickle at the best of times, but the underlying strategy is in place and patience is needed. This will be the right place at the right time .. and meanwhile will possibly give us an opportunity to obtain more. Good luck to those who don’t bottle it - HFG .
Started: deckchair66, 19 Jun 2024 11:59
Last post: Gallmat, 19 Jun 2024 19:01
Pk73, agree with the below.
The easiest way for the company to resolve the issue would be to discuss with brokers and have them adjust their range.
That way they are not saying anything but commenting on 3rd party expectations that hit the market.
I would have thought that brokers could revise.it based on GOI comments.
This is reasonable and actually the company has to respond to broker changes.
All non binding
Knowing AIM, @deck, it’ll probably tank the SP!
But I think with that knowledge of the TOI, there will be some reading between the lines and there would be some movement in sp. In order to build the momentum heading up to 5-10% of claim value, pricing in a risk of failure, I think we would need that quantum to be rns’d.
Personally i do not expect the NOA to be a trigger.
The company included the reference to the TOI amount of 1 billion. There was no need to comment on that and they did so i take that as the best signal.
I think it is time to think more medium term here, the quantum might be quite a while away, but we have to trust this is done for a good reason
Do we think the sp/mkcap will react when/if the NoA is served?
We currently know it's over 7 million oz's ...so if with out a quantum attached it must be a $1 billion plus surely?
Started: Pk73, 17 Jun 2024 07:08
Last post: Gallmat, 19 Jun 2024 10:20
Yup thx prof.
To summarise we are in control and everything is happening for a reason.
Delays just imply more accrued interest so that balances dilution.
We have a interesting issue. One data set.
We want a strong case, we want near term info to support the price, we want good negotiations.
Hard for the CEO to achieve all 3 at same time. This just comes down to trusting the CEO, which i do.
Yup. Thx prof.
I basically just read this as everything is happening for a good reason.
At the end of the day this is about the requirements of different groups. We want a s
Well I think that certainly helps clear/clarify certain points which we have all been speculating about.
Looks like the gloves are starting to come off.
Obviously not ideal on the timescale of the quantum.
Plenty of news due ( from Profs first message).
If I was the Minister( & given that Mondi keeps saying he wants to stamp out corruption ) I would pay up & move on.
Sorry late response to the remainder points:
4) (A) Will the auction selling price have any bearing on the our claim size AND (B) do we have any fair value in mind and (C) will FV be included in the claim letter
-First of all, there are no foreign bidders and there is a good reason for this. How can one be sure if the bidding process is a fair one or not? Have equal access to all the documentation been provided to all the bidders? Transparency issues. Hence, very difficult that the auction price will have a bearing on the CLAIM SIZE (more on this below).
-There is a SEPARATE PROCESS regarding submitting a STATEMENT OF CLAIM which PAT is currently working on BUT is at least 6 months away FOR GOOD REASONS. The figure in this statement will be the only number that counts.
-AND, we do not want to state a figure in the Arbitration Notice only to find that it is different from the figure that gets finalised for this STATEMENT OF CLAIM. This will undermine our credibility
-The government auction is a long process (and an unreliable one) and is not expected to be completed any time soon.
5) Coming back to Kalaka, in case if anyone wants to look at a comparable mine, in terms of grading of grams per tonne, the one to check out according to MB is YANACOCHA owned by Newmont. In the case of Kalaka, for the area where the so called low grading is, the start and the end of the zones can be identified. However, there are other very wide zones with much higher grading where they cannot YET see where the starting point is and where they end.
GLA
My apologies, am running late. So catch up in the evening with the rest of the points
Started: Gallmat, 17 Jun 2024 07:09
Last post: deckchair66, 17 Jun 2024 10:40
Prof..if you could ask MB along with the bhukia stuff..if they intend to use some of the cash raised to test the Northern area of kalaka & get a confirmed resources for the project please.
Prof
Pls share if you hear anything!
I think the interview gives us a holistic update and all we need.
The only issue was the timing of the placing. Pre or post issuing MOA - we now know.
What is clear now:
1. Our claim amount will come out before the funding issue arises again. So from today this looks good and derisked.
2. The company has the MOA ready but has delayed so there is a good background reason
I am mentally switching off ( " moving on") from worrying about short term news flow. The only issue i had was the placing and that is now done
Hi Pk
I will be this afternoon. But, someone sold ahead of the placing and don't know who. In fact I wanted to buy more but as I mentioned but could not
Anyone trying to speak to mark today?
Started: Troajan, 13 Jun 2024 15:24
Last post: deckchair66, 14 Jun 2024 18:31
Nice to see Pat have put the proactive interview on Twitter ( called X now for some strange reason!) First post I think since November!
Me too, looks like he’s busy today
I was also trying to have a chat :)
Pk
Waiting for MB to confirm he is free
What time is your call, @prof?
Best of luck and looking forward to hearing any nuggets.
GLA pk
Started: Geng, 14 Jun 2024 10:57
Last post: Geng, 14 Jun 2024 10:57
Not sure why anyone was expecting anything to happen during elections. One of the companies I'm involved in has many government body customers in India, including the courts and air force. All government spending is put on hold during the runup to an election, so would expect the same applies to legal decisions.
Will all be spinning back up now so would expect something in the next week or so.
Started: Metals, 13 Jun 2024 17:18
Last post: Metals, 13 Jun 2024 17:18
We are all on here to make money and it's nice to hear everyone's speculations. If we look at what minimal news and an obvious tree shake can do to the trades what will an arbitration or compensation figure do??
Last post: Gallmat, 13 Jun 2024 15:56
Thanks guys for belp clearing this up
I hate bad feelings on boards
Ahhh, infighting on the boards. You know what that means?
We're getting close :-)
(For clarity, this is very much meant tongue in cheek)
This is potentially a good board please block me if you cannot take criticism of your actions
I will just block you.
If you read the past posts you will see what i said about moving on. You read it one way
And do not want to see following posts.
So it is annoying when you accuse someome of something.
This is a good board and i dont have time for this.
I am not slinging insult just asking you to stop posting on a company you have no holding in particularly when some of your comments could be taken as deramping
I am paying attention to my holdings hence my messages to you
Started: LuckyLaurie, 13 Jun 2024 14:18
Last post: Npsol, 13 Jun 2024 14:34
Guys/ladies.
please move on.
Gallmat, has stated he has some skin in PAT and cleared up what he meant.
If you have been here for a while, you would have read that.
Clearly suggests you have Sold Up !
“RE: Speculation11 Jun 2024 19:46
Machissmo, this will reach a natural conclusion in 3yrs
In terms of moving on, i have taken my stake here and will deploy capital elsewhere.
I will probably not post much going forward.“
Started: Professor1, 13 Jun 2024 13:47
Last post: Alans55, 13 Jun 2024 13:52
At today's prices, does that mean we are looking at a worth of about 5.4 billion?
This work identifies an exploration target of between 0.5 Moz to 1 Moz gold. Importantly, the Company is yet to drill the northern extension of the mineralisation at K1A together with several similar targets on the project area. Taken together this would potentially expand the exploration target to approximately 3 Moz of gold.
Situation
Great opportunity which I didn't see coming
Started: Geng, 13 Jun 2024 09:53
Last post: Gallmat, 13 Jun 2024 10:19
Might be rumour/ fear of a placing.
If it does not come yet this is cheap. If it comes hopefully it would be small until next stage
Place your bets :).
Honestly, if we sold west african assets even on cheap and gave away 2pct of case as bonus
We would nof have this guessing.
The value of certainty is pricesless!
Similar thing happened about 12 months ago...I remember it well..I bottled it ..sold sold sold...bit later someday I got my nerves back in check and bought everything back ..cost me a bit as price had gone back up.
Bottom of both rising channels - 6.2 or 5.4
Worth buying some now as it may well close at 6.2 and bounce off it tomorrow. Also keeps some cash back incase it drops to the lower channel circa 5.4
Tree shake to allow someone to hoover up some shares?
Unless one of our claim partners is to leave the party, I dont see the valuation drivers for PAT being affected but I am, to my wallets detriment, occasionally blindsided by new and novel ways for a share to tear itself a new air sole.
Is this being played A 20% spread and down 18%?
Is it the MM cowboys trying to frighten people into selling because they have heard news that will transform this share and they want to make a fortune off the backs of us?
Bit of volume this morning (admittedly in the wrong direction), and the number of trades is outpacing the number of posts on the LSE board for a change.
Is there a leak?
Same boat here @nelson… given up trying to time things right…. Got 150k EUA at about 18p ave (that hurts) and 230k here at just under 7p now… surely one of those has to come good in 2024…. Or crypto.. or euromillions 🤣
Lol - not selling here till something happens and ditto EUA for buying - if at all.
On the reverse, considering buying here pre news and considering EUA sell before news...
Started: mickey1122, 12 Jun 2024 17:27
Last post: Gallmat, 13 Jun 2024 08:29
My view.
Just trying to let it complete without annoying GOI more.
It is in our interest for them to get maximum price.
The act of expropriation i think would have to be 2021, so not sure that this
Auction is that important.
Good to see everyone is still here.
Thanks Mickey - will try to join.
"IF EFFORTS at settlement prove ineffective, IGPL will PROMPTLY deliver a notice of arbitration to the Government of India.
EITHER:
(1) PAT is still really trying hard to convince the GOI that settlement will be in their interest - they may have much more to lose if this indeed goes to Arbitration. OR
(2) We have gone past that stage of the negotiations and are simply waiting for the grant of the licence in India to go through - which is the last of the Acts by the GOI that will make our case in the international tribunal that much stronger.
Won't be long I believe.
GLA
Message for you on the share you've just joined
Started: topsharepicks, 7 Jun 2024 10:24
Last post: Gallmat, 12 Jun 2024 22:38
Honestly there is nothing to analyse.
The next milestone is the west african portfolio. If we get even 6m USD for it, that
Gets us easily 3 yrs operational expense ( without drilling).
With that we have no further dilution.
Then all we need is a case that gets to a hearing, tbh we dont even need to win it!.
When we get to the hearing we will have changed our implied probability of winning .
Do we think we have a case worth hearing at least. I would think so given it wad worth
Hearing in indian courts, we need to at least visit the issues in international courts
When we issue our case is not that relevant, 1m from now or 2 months.
We will get out hearing and rerate without dilution
Honestly sod starting the arbitration, focus on selling west africa
GLad you are still here Gallmat. A voice of reason.
I haven't sold up. I am just spending my time looking for other things ondo.l had good news.
Strip tinning last week.
This could drag on for a bit so paying less attention to pat.l
Has not satisfied!
@ejt..fully agree ..in regards to your last paragraph I still reckon the 'contract' along with local applicable taxes is ( unless it's been changed for the 3 rd attempt at auction) has satisfied registered bidders.
I Hope for all parties a good deal is reached this month & everyone can move on.
Started: Pk73, 31 May 2024 04:49
Last post: Pk73, 7 Jun 2024 04:45
Habit of RNS first week of the month kept up… certainly can’t accuse MB of irregular comms!
Not the update on bhukia we wanted, but there’s glimmers of ‘read between the lines’ info, and I certainly agree with the inference others have spotted that bhukia arbitration is now the main focus with minimal dilution.
A news heavy couple of months due… wish it was quicker, but as @gallmat alludes to… it will be when it will be..
Things clearly moving forwards albeit they say in mining that even glacial speed is considered quick…
I think the inference of progress should nudge us back into the 8’s at least. But it’s AIM. Don’t be surprised at the 5’s, when I’ll be chucking the kitchen sink in.
GLA pk.
There has been an rns on or before the 9th of every month.... a pattern that suggests an RNS next week...
The reality, on the other hand, suggests 'who on earth knows'.... but i remain comfortable here.
Cannot be a deal, you dont sell exploration assets if you have cash on way to develop them it is probably 2 and 3
The hord arrived today at strip tinning. Big volume. It will be the same here one day.
The pump and dump crew will do their worst no.doubt :).
Just time
Unless of course it's the UT trade..even so ..on rns it should be going up imo.
Hopefully option 1.
Even if is not yet sold at auction (🤷♂️) the full intent is too sell,with a pile of documentation that any of us could supply the court with !
Looking at today's volumes & what is possibly a few big buys ..(but once again mysteriously hidden as black trades)...its not surprising MB doesn't want to do anything to sp at the moment.
Down 4 % what a joke !
Clearly there's some reason(s) as to why the notice of arbitration hasn't been issued already (especially since the end of Q1 was the original target), and it's frustrating that we don't know what that is. Gut reaction is it's down to one of the following (given the election has now passed in India):
1. Negotiations ongoing for settlement
2. Waiting for the auction to demonstrate that all reasonable efforts for dialogue towards an amicable solution have been exhausted, as the state has sold the asset to someone else
3. Administrative delays and not all ducks are in a row on the legal side yet
However, given the 'bread today, jam tomorrow' approach to the African assets at the moment, I agree that Mark must see an uplift in fortunes in the short(ish) term to delay raising funds.
Personal view. No rns on monday
If it was coming we would retain our assets and use cash coming up to develop them and.multiply the benefit from the award.
This is about trying to look like we go the distance. If we get cash great job done. If we need small raise, this idea implies they will screw us less because they would not.expect future dilutions
Rns
Exactly DBush and great point , as soon as the Arbitration Panel see that this case has been previously rebuffed by multiple tribunals, committees and courts of India you would think they would find in favour of PAT
Given that our case is fronted by international lawyers and involve a treaty in law corruption is not going to affect it
The corruption may come to the fore in the internal auction process but will not change international law
I would be very happy with an early settlement anything around/above ( after costs) £300 mil.
RNS on Monday?
I checked on the London Stock Market main website..that large trade yesterday did not appear?.
Started: oldbutnowisa, 6 Jun 2024 11:06
Last post: Gallmat, 6 Jun 2024 11:14
Enforcement is not an issue. If you follow lcm that is the most important thing in early due dilligence. If they cannot they walk.
You can seize assets of india in various countries ( in the past people impound planes etc). 1bn usd to india is nothing. Not worth the reputational risk of not.following through.
An international partner who ignores the law. They will come in line..anyway they could settle it for 300m usd ...peanuts for india
And long life all in here. I cut my losses years ago. Hopefully soon you might get your award against India but you will then no doubt have to enforce it. At least it seems you have an honest guy at the top now.
Are we getting ready sell the african assets as we wait for a fat check from the Indian government? that would be the dream endgame for us shareholders. I trust Mark to deliver
Started: deckchair66, 29 May 2024 16:19
Last post: Gallmat, 5 Jun 2024 22:28
Np.
I do not have level 2 so not sure. Seems too big might get a cancellation
If it is sell, placing? If buy then bullish.
A bit of a red herring for us then - thanks for the clarification.
Any idea whether the 350,000 share (£23k) transaction this afternoon was a buy or a sell? Pretty big for PAT.
My line has not changed.
The auction may not have much impact on our claim, but we are keeping quiet out of politeness.
Decisions in India are made jointly and annoying people while they are doing the sale is pointless.
No point getting peoples back up.
Even if gov changes i am sure many of the civil servants and GSI will be the same.
Just keep everyone happy as possible
Thanks Gall..as a guess only, waiting for new government maybe to be formed?..then
It was me.
There is no 6 month cool off period.
That is only for country vs country. Not country vs
company. I confirmed with CEO who confirmed with lawyers.
The reason for not going to next stage is probably related to something else. Maybe still working on something who knows.
Started: NTBD, 28 May 2024 07:45
Last post: LuckyLaurie, 28 May 2024 10:37
4.17 Billion shares in issue 🙈 not for me but I hope you do well.
PAT has 175 Million shares in issue and it has huge backing for its litigation against GoI / GoR , LCM have a 95% successful outcome and FASKEN would not bother with us unless they believe they can Win.
Now bearing in mind The Government of Rajasthan (GoR) relies on three weak arguments that have been repeatedly raised and previously rebuffed by multiple tribunals, committees and courts of India, I think I will leave my investment here as the risk vs reward is massive and on a successful outcome we are looking at anything from £1.25 to £2.50 per share
I've posted on Powerhouse energy about Panthera
I’d be more interested if you stated on the powerhouse energy board that Panthera Resources is on the way up, to be honest.
Anyone interested. Powerhouse Energy is on the Up!
Take a look. DYOR