Member Info for logicalthought

I think zero chance of settlement before the panel rules on the merit.

We are very close to the next filing. We need to chill.

In spite of the fact that thje award is unlikely to be close to the demanded amount, US$250 million after costs doesn´t seem to be reasonable, it would mean that a government could expropriate a very valuable resource from an investor and pay a very small amount. A fraction of its potential value that has been determined by a public auction. Even if an award has to be reasonable in terms of capital spent but also opportunity cost, US$250 milliom just doesn´t meet the criteria. I am working with what I think is very conservative which is 250 million pounds net as a bare minimum.

I don’t think the domestic price has any effect on the revised claim to be presented late July. That might be the catalyst along with the fact that time is passing and we are not too far from the hearing phase. Both Burford and especially LCM have hurt the space but obviously no effect on outcome.

Yes. That’s confirmed and the third party provider of the claim work is currently working on it, as far as I understand.

That’ll be done as part of the company’s response: an updated claim. So end July.

Great share to hold at these prives and circumstamces.

I am curious to see of there’ll be more volume OTC in the US as by now attendees of the conference have had time to digest and with calendar confirmation we are closer to the finishing line.

This is good news even if somewhat expected. We are on track. Panthera will respond on time and with an updated claim value. As for India, they have thisn huge undeveloped deposit sitting idle. No idea of the likelihood of a settlement but as gold rises, that must increase, even in India.

Agreed but I think the sheer amount of due diligence and the fact that this can potentially be a really big winner with most of the money already spent, make it very unlikely. Let’s see if India responds on time. I am told that a small delay is not unusual or material but obviously prefer it to be on time. Panthera’s response and updates claim will be on time, that I don’t doubt.

I have the impression that the difficulties at LCM are weighing on PAT even if most of it has been funded and PAT would have no difficulty in self funding with associated larger return for its shareholders. That being said, the LCM soap opera should be coming to an end, its strategic review is taking a long time but the recent extension of the credit line, including an additional US$25 million and a Maech 1st deadline might indicate that this is coming to an end.

A full settlement would extinguish arbitration and would likely come with payment deadlines attached.

Why wouldn´t a settlement be paid earlier?

I think the claim gets updated to USD 2.5 billion, and still using a gold price well below current price. The original claim was also apparently done using a price below spot at the time. Updated claim will likely be presented when Panthera replies to India, end of July. If the number is indeed USD 2.5 billion and we use a 30% award, after deducting all costs, fx and what have you the number is GBP 2 net to sharehoders in probably 3 years. Of course could be much earlier in case of a settlement. India obviously knows that there will be an updated claim.

A royalty is usually a percentage of the production, that is mathematically linear. The claim is based on an assumed gold price and that has obviously changed and will be re-stated. That is nin-linear. The royalty is the end result of the process. Obviously. You can´t calculate the royalty without having the value of the claim. In any case, iot´s not even 100% clear what value a royalty model has if not just to present the NPV of the claim. The disservice is in the name of being conservative not understanding correctly how a claim is calculated, access to the CEO or not.

Non sequitur. If anything your argument is on the side of being non linear. There is an AISC (All in Sustaining Costs) is relatively fixed because there is a lot of material at that grade. Hence just impossible to have a linear relationship. But I rest my case.

It is non-linear. Any royalty model is necessarily derived from a mine model.

I disagree: India´s response is an important milestone and will be done most likely by end Feb, then there´ll be updates on Mali and also the resizing of the claim most likely by end July. I am not sure if everybody understands that the size of the claim increases disproportionately larger than the gold price change, as the usual leverage in mining takes place: costs increase at a much lower pace than revenue.

I disagree. I think a company with very limited resources should not try to advance a very early stage mining project in a difficult jurisdiction. It should probably JV it and move on.

As soon as India replies, end Feb, stock should significantly reprice.