Member Info for logicalthought

Interest is due in case of a payment delay. This is standard. Witness GreenX for example.

Absolutely and a must watch.

Story getting better known and uncorrelated asset.

Https://open.substack.com/pub/caseresearch/p/panthera-lsepat?r=3k9vzo&utm_medium=ios

I think you are confusing me with someone else. I have repeatedly said that a settlement at this point is highly unlikely. I don’t believe this will be settled at all.

Hi Matt, i think highly unlikely PAT goes under 20. I think it most likely goes to 30. Not much stock being offered. Others interested in picking up a sizeable position have come empty headed :) .

With Americans having easier access to shares of Panthera and more coverage as has been posted here, it’s a matter of time until the stock trades up to 50p and consolidates there. Still a huge discount to properly adjusted net award.

I think another interesting aspect of Panthera when compared to other levearaged to gold plays is that you get the "prize" all at once. In smaller gold companies there is considerable execution risk, delays, cost over runs and the like. Here this is not the case unless W Africa gets in play in a serious manner but that would be a bonus. Every percentage increase in the gild price increases the heavily discounted estimated value of PAT by 10%, in other words, 10x leverage. Mind boggling.

I think it is 15%, this was confirmed by MB in the past. I am quite curious to see what will happen to W Africa as Mali seems to be warming up to miners as witnessed by the recent project financing there. So Panthera has two gold vectors: the claim and the resource. None of which have been priced. On my numbers, ascribing a relatively low percentage of the total claim, adjusted for LIT, FX, stake and probability of award, discounting for what looks to be a 3 year max waiting period and adding W. Africa, I get £1.5. I think that’s almost too pessimistic.

I think PAT is one of the best risk reward opportunities we have today especially that the case is advancing quicker than anticipated and we'll have the final calendar of events very soon. It'll actually not be a long wait.

I think in the very near future we’ll have the calendar of future events as to the arbitration process and hence it’ll become definitively clear when the process will end with all its steps.

It may very well be that we'll see a number of positive announcements from Panthera in the next few months including the calendar of events for arbitration which will make it much more clear when we should expect decisions BUT also on the gold assets. Gold alone can easily justify a large portion of the current share price but we need way more visibility. I believe given all these that the current share price is way cheaper on a risk adjusted basis than ever.

A possible exception would be a very powerful party interested in developing a potentially extremely lucrative deposit. My bet is this will never be a mine, though.

It's India. They will go to the very end and try to stall as much as they can. This is a drop in the ocean for them, politically and otherwise. Doesn't even register. Had the auction been won by a bonafide large mining group, Indian or otherwise, perhaps things would be different.

Exactly zero chance of a quick settlement with India. First because it has other priorities including Pakistan and China, then because it'll take months for it to the Panthera thing to reach the higher corridors of power, if it indeed does. Patience.

That would mean aprox. £4 with costs, currency adjustments etc

They are not but awards have been a relatively low percentage of claims. The thought is whether this is changing as litigators learn more. In other words: as this happens should we assume a larger percentage.

One thing that puzzles me is this: we know that awards are hardly ever given for the full claim but as this is the norm I wonder if claimants have adjusted / will adjust the numbers to make it more realistic. In pratice: I am modelling a 50% award with 80% chance of winning, in other words a net 40% of claim. A well supported claim should in theory be closer than 50%. So going full loop: will claims be more "precise" and hence awards higher as a percentage?

@prof

Great to hear.

@magoo

No wonder countless studies show that retail investors on average underperform the indices: too emotional. Of course appealing to insults is classic as well.

I thought your "feeling" was a bit off as of the timing of the SOC.