Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It seems pretty clear from their wording that I was correct on the 6 month time frame.
I doubt these negotiations will lead to anything, they are just trying to delay us. PAT would be stupid to accept any early settlement from the GoI. We don't want more false promises from the GOI. We want them to be bound by the decision of an international court.
I'm putting my money on a NoA RNS on 8th July, which coincidentally is my birthday.
Some may recall that I was confused by the Q1 deadline, as the treaty says that they have 6 months to negotiate before arbitration can be announced.
PAT insisted that there was no time limit or requirement, and they were simply being courteous.
From the treaty:
"If a dispute between the Contracting Parties cannot thus be settled within six months of one Contracting Party receiving a request in writing for such negotiations or consultations, it shall upon the request of either Contracting Party be submitted to an arbitral tribunal"
So it seems we're on track for my June estimate after all, as our notice of dispute was 2nd Jan 2024. Seems like they've made an obvious mistake in communications here.
I can't remember the last time we met two deadlines in a row, but management do deliver. Still one day left if they want to release on schedule. If not, won't be long regardless.
I just hope we aren't playing cat and mouse with the auction date intentionally.
Indeed, LCMs backing brings a lot of weight for our case. My point was that we aren't in the same set of rules, and the stats from that research note are old.
In the past ~8 years, the general trend has been for international cases to finish faster. PAT and LCM point out that this could take 3-5 years. But it's also possible that we'll get a decision earlier than that.
I'll be happy to see the claim amount for now. If the arbitrators are all selected this year I'm sure we'll get some movement on the stock.
And an updated Cascades MRE.
Our case is being raised under the provisions of the India-Australia BIT, which was shut down by India in 2017.
"The Australia-India BIT signed on 26 February 1999 was terminated relatively recently, on 23 March 2017. However, in accordance with Article 17(3) of the treaty, certain provisions of the Australia-India BIT will continue to be effective for a period of 15 years from the date of termination, i.e. until 23 March 2032"
https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/investment/australias-bilateral-investment-treaties
It states that the initial arbitrators should be determined within two months of the notice, then one more month for the third arbitrator.
Let us hope that India sticks to those time limits. If not, it needs to be escalated, taking further time.
I don't think there are any time limits in the BIT for the tribunal unfortunately. India has also changed their laws pertaining to international cases in 2015, 2019 and 2021. I haven't gone though those in detail yet.
The main positive for me is that LCM are confident we can win.
Unrelated but there is a lot of buzz around Enviva currently. The market is pricing in bankruptcy for next week, 20% short interest.
A lot of their shares are held internally or by institutions. If they don't go bankrupt on Monday, those shorts need to cover, and there aren't many shares to do so.
If they go manage to not go bankrupt, there should be a short squeeze next week.
The best case is arbitration in my opinion. Who wants to work with a government that's spent nearly 20 years cutting you off and betraying you? There's no trust left. If Mark Bolton of all people couldn't get a successful negotiation, there's no point.
If by some miracle they granted the license, they'd find another way to cut us out. PAT need to get the money via arbitration, and say goodbye to Bhukia.
@Gallmer the Cascades project has $18m of funding secured, where we have a 20% stake. It's likely to become a mine at some point. Updated MRE to come this year.
Just my personal theory, but I think they will develop the other West Africa projects as cheaply as possible and sell some off in a couple of years.
PAT has been very good in terms of minimising dilution so far. I don't see them going down the GGP route.
All they've said is Q1.
Mark confirmed via email that they do mean calendar Q1, so anytime this next month would fit.
He also said they plan to do another interview in March, which suggests they are on track to deliver.
PAT have promising projects in Burkina and Mali, the sum of which could have a value close to Bhukia. If you stay in on PAT you're not just relying on the litigation, the other projects will have their own value.
No idea sorry, he mentioned it in passing in a recent email.
I presume it'll be after the NoA news. Most their interviews are with Proactive, but who knows? Could be anybody really. I'm hoping we get more exposure on this, as we're still under the radar for most PIs.