Member Info for Edhellas

Insane checking in...

The 15-30% estimates are based on the claim amount, not the award. Investors never know how high a potential award will be, standard to base it on claim amount and likelihood of success.

Section 1: $1.58b would not give us £6 per share, presume it's pulled an estimate from somebody back when the share price was much lower.

Section 2: PAT would never agree to receiving a royalty from India, if that's what it's trying to imply.

Section 3: It doesn't take into account that any award will be reinstated at the end, and PAT are advising it should be based on the prevailing gold price.

This is why I don't like using AI for investment research

We'll only get a very basic announcement I believe. Main thing to look forward to is the claim recalc, likely 1-2 months before the hearing date.

It'll only be advisory since it'll come from PATs consultant, not the court. I hope Penny, Swen, etc. pick it up and run with it

Doubt it, just BAU. We'll keep rising over the next year, easy money at this stage.

I know at least one person made a £1 trade so they could monitor the stock easily. Maybe it's similar? My Reddit post had a lot a views recently (about £270k)

PAT can only seize assets if they refuse to pay. And if they are refusing to pay after an early settlement, the details of the settlement would dictate whether there would even be a course to pursue said seizure of assets.

And that would require even more time and legal costs. It's highly unlikely India will settle for many reasons which I have consistently brought up the past few years. And it's not necessarily the best avenue for PAT given we know the claim amount will be adjusted based on the prevailing price of gold, plus interest accrued, and adds the protection of the international court.

I have to disagree on early settlement being the best for PAT. India have a history of not paying their settlements. But if PAT win an arbitration case, India will be held accountable. If they don't pay up, assets will be seized.

If they reach a settlement, India would almost certainly put in a waiver of future claims. Then PAT would need to go to court all over again in a similar manner to Cairne.

Better for PAT to go all the way now we're this far in the process. Let the price of gold and interest accumulate for a large claim.

India's best opportunity to settle was before the BIT was invoked. It's very unlikely that they will settle.

AI can tell you whatever you want to hear. It's only regurgitating messages it reads on forums like this one. Do not trust it for any type of legal or investing advice.

Highly unlikely that they settle imo. If they were going to reach an agreement it would have been before the BIT case started.

A successful outcome for PAT will help LCM bounce back, they are probably very reluctant to drop this case now.

Unless they go bankrupt I think we'll be fine. We could easily find other funding at this stage anyway

Exactly, it's a strong case and we're halfway there from their perspective. In terms of their due diligence + current court proceedings, and also by their investment.

RE: LCM

Worst case scenario even if they pulled the plug on PAT, we've had half the cash already. Of course I don't want to see dilution, but if we needed to self fund or seek alternative funding in 1-2 years, we'll probably have a nice share price to help.

The SOC was a post tax calculation, so even if the figure ends up +10% say, the post tax figure will likely vary slightly.

Feels like India slept on this case without any idea how expensive it could be for them. I don't think an early settlement will ever be reached, they'll keep kicking this can. Not a bad thing in our case...

The play here is to wait for SP to hit 20% of claim amount and sell most your holding. Don't need to hold it all until decision

I don't think it means anything, but nice to see it tick up a bit.

Realistically we should see 25p in the next year or so, going off our peers

Triple S Special Situations is another one, but I've only learned of these sources recently

Would be interesting to correlate articles made by them both, and stock performance over time

Might try to throw a script together at some point to get basic analysis on them

https://www.weird****investing.com/manual/

post there about pat came out today.

Assuming SP is based on % of claim amount...

($1.58b = £1.19b) / ~250m shares = £4.76

I think we'll easily see 10% of that, so 47p per share over the next couple of years.

If we could peak at 20% (or even 30%) over the next 2-5 years, I'd be a very happy man.

"Saw multiple members of the pantheraLTH group reach out to Mark Bolton. They all got some snarkey reply to the effect of "last time I checked, the 16th ends at 24:00""

That just means the SoC would be submitted on time. If the RNS is submitted in the afternoon it *can* be released the same day (E.g. some were released 18:30 this week), but that is generally up to RNS, not the company.

If the company submitted the info to RNS Friday, it'll be out Monday morning.