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I hope it's the 10th, but I don't think we'll finish in court this calendar year
In my opinion we'll get the LCM DD completed, then the funding confirmation notice shortly after. Then Fasken will use it as extra leverage in court to get an agreement out of them, which will take some time to finalise.
One thing I will say, some people on this board like to write back of napkin maths on potential share price. After all the legal issues we've had, I don't see any future where Mark relinquishes more than 49% of Bhukia. We know there's at least $12B in gold there, likely much more. The board should understand well - we need to maintain a majority stake in the project.
We aren't going into auction in the next few days. Today is the latest for the DD, the DD doesn't put money on our pockets. It doesn't mean we'll automatically get a settlement in the next court hearing either. We still have a couple of months minimum if we are getting an agreement.
That should read over $12b+ for India total sorry. E.g. 6.6 million ounces x $1900 per oz.
You're typically looking at $80-100 per oz re: share price, but that depends on the cost to extract which I have no idea for Bhukia. It would depend a lot if we get an amicable agreement and whether we could convince the govt to apply the fast tracking process they have just announced.
Https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S002449371930386X
The litigation funding will take at least two months to finalise, probably longer. We won't see a deal until after funding is secured. Mark's deadline is March 2024, expect a deal closer to that date. It may even take longer and require an extension. I remember it took a long time for LCM to sign into Carmillion, and another 2 years for them to get their deal from KPMG.
People should stop expecting a transformational RNS every week and wait for the process to play itself out.
They have, but at least this time there's information from the company to back it up. A 20p 8 month share target for Mark is very bullish. Litigation DD is expected very soon and discussions in India seem to be positive. We're close to getting another MRE and we've got 3 years of funding for Cascades still (which should get an updated RE in the next 6-12 months).
The $5m figure is so Mark can easily meet it. They won't reduce it that much. Very bullish news. Bear in mind the share price needs to average 20p for the month, not just tip over the line briefly.
Any of these 3 scenarios is great news for investors, and PAT wouldn't be dangling the red flag in front of this bull (Mark) if they didn't think he would deliver.
I'm very glad to have taken my 27p average from a few months ago down to 10.4p now.
Mark said to me in an email last year that a JV partner on its own is inconsequential. But in that recent interview he said getting LCM funding OR the JV partner would be a major update.
To me that implies that this potential JV partner is a piece of the puzzle in the recent talks with the government. Speculative - the potential JV partner is an Indian company which the government approved of behind closed doors.
We're not really spending anything on the Moydow projects anymore, and the LCM funding means we won't be spending anything on litigation. This should mean less dilution in the long term.
The way Mark words it implies that the major update will either be a joint venture, or the litigation funding, whichever comes first. If the former it's one of the steps necessary to end the court case, which will still take time imo. If I'm wrong we'll know on the 17th either way
I think it's likely that the funding application will move forward.
I don't see a deal being reached on the 17th though. If it were in the works, why would LCM be delaying their due diligence to the 16th? If Mark knew there was no litigation to take place, he wouldn't still be pursuing litigation funding. Or he'd postpone it until after the court hearing so we don't need to borrow from LCM.
If a deal were announced on the 17th, LCM would have no reason to continue the DD either because they need to win the court case to get their money.
It'll be litigation due diligence completes > litigation funding notice > couple of court hearings > hopefully an agreement is reached this year (where we maintain a majority stake).
I did predict this some time ago. It's expected, and normal. In fact, PAT have an abnormally low number of shares in issue for a company with two advanced projects.
We can expect some further dilution over the coming years but the board are well aware of how this affects shareholders. If India is resolved, the dilution won't matter.
Even if we go to 300m shares, that's 1/10th the number compared to GGP who have a significantly smaller resource and higher costs.
I suggest people temper their expectations on the India timeline and enjoy the ride. Expect a result in the coming months, not days.
I don't think we get a deal just yet.
The funding deadline is one business day before the court case.
I believe Mark is trying to get it before the next court case to use as ammunition, not that we have an agreement already in place behind closed doors.
We'll have multiple at least two hearings before a deal is reached imo. As always, happy to be proven wrong. For the record I'm still very bullish on us getting a deal, but think expectations are a little high.