Member Info for Edhellas

I received the following from Panthera when I emailed them about the notice of arbitration timeline:

"There is no specific time period required for the NoA.

We do however wish that the matter will be resolved amicably which necessitates an appropriate period to allow the GoI to receive the NoD and then engage with Panthera. Subject to the term of any such engagement, we intend to lodge the NoA as soon as practicable."

Hopefully I'm wrong, but I still think it's going to be around June. They do sometimes refer to Jan as Q1, but they also refer to it being April in others (financial year). E.g. PATs annual reports are sent at the end of March, and half year reports in September.

The bit says they have 6 months to responded before we can call a tribunal. We submitted the NoD in January. June lines up for the BIT. If we submitted it 1st Jan, and they are calling that 2023 Q4, and our financial 2023 ends in March, it seems likely that I'm correct. Read article 13, paragraph 2

Please remember all that the financial year for Panthera ends in March, and Q1 2024 means end of June.

So we've got a 5 month wait. Unless the GOI give me us a solid "No" before then. I think they'll drag this out as much as possible myself, so I'm content to top up for another 5 months.

Taken from Article 13 (the BIT):

"1. Disputes between the Contracting Parties concerning the interpretation or application of this Agreement should, if possible, be settled through friendly consultations and negotiations. 2. If a dispute between the Contracting Parties cannot thus be settled within six months of one Contracting Party receiving a request in writing for such negotiations or consultations, it shall upon the request of either Contracting Party be submitted to an arbitral tribunal. Arbitration proceedings shall be instituted upon notice being given through the diplomatic channel by the Contracting Party instituting such proceedings to the other Contracting Party. "

Don't trust anything from the AI chats on this, they are are language models. As there is little content for this case, they will pick up their info from forums like this, copying ideas from random posts. If you use GPT4 you'll at least get some kind of info on the sources it uses.

I have to use these for work regular and while they're good at certain things, they also invent answers on the spot. Even on fact-based questions they will invent answers, then when you tell them they are wrong, they always 'admit' it.

Even if they say something correct, if you lie and tell them they are wrong, they'll say "Sorry, we were wrong." Then give you an answer in the opposite narrative

I doubt it, their needle only moves 10% at a time. They had a few days of -10% then one day of 40% recovery. If you look at them over the past week it's basically flat.

DFR share price has large % swings due to the low price. Change it to one week/month/year and their current SP is pretty normal

I'm hoping that the claim announcement will be followed by a nice stream of new investors. I know there are a few people around who keep an eye out for companies involved with LCM.

@deckchair I don't think they're withholding it, it just isn't ready yet. They are probably hoping for the auction to take place. That aside, they said Q4, which is end of March as far as I know. Note the half year report is dated September.

Did he imply what project the update will be about?

That figures is from Allenby research on 13th September. They expect a claim of $500-1000m and the share price to trade at a 90% discount.

The litigation will likely be worth 25-50p over the next couple of years, assuming a claim of $500-1000M.

*The research from Allenby was before the auction was announced though. Hopefully if the auction price is higher, PAT will match their claim to it, if not more. If a third party buys at over $1.5b then it proves the loss of our investment is also greater than the amount they sell for. Nobody is paying that much for a mine unless it's profitable.

According to Allenby they expect the claim to be $500-1000m, and for the share price to reach 10% of.the claim amount to match our peers. That's about 25-50p.

Some of us can afford the risk.

They also took place during covid I might add. They're hardly a good benchmark for PATs case

Topped up another 17,316 shares.

Brings my total to 300,000 on the dot. Average 10.31p.

If Allenby are correct and we see 25-50p value during the arbitration process I'll be happy.

Prairie mining case is in a different country, that's why the timelines are different...

So according to them, we should see roughly 25-50p once we catch up to our peers, just for India. That does not include Cascades and other projects, which could easily justify another 10-25p imo (depending on drilling results). They also see this arbitration taking 3-5 years.

My only concern is dilution. 5 years is a long time for the company to hold out with no cash flow. Cascades will still take about 3 years to be fleshed out, and turning it into a mine will take longer still. We need to be very careful of costs in our smaller projects.

Still, a $500-1000m claim would be huge if we win in the end. We get 95%, LCM likely get 15% plus $13.6m, then possible Faskens take a cut (likely given they've been helping us for free for a while). ~$300-650m after everybody takes their cut. Take away some dilution and it's still a 10-30x return vs current market cap.

Not sure if anybody posted before, this is a couple of weeks old:

https://www.allenbycapital.com/client/panthera-resources-plc/

"Resource backdrop: We believe a major positive for Panthera in supporting its case against the Indian government relates to the Geological Survey of India having identified in 2014 a 6.7m oz Au resource at Bhukia. This suggests critical-mass and is potentially a resource that would attract the attention of gold company majors for development. – Litigation status: Legal proceedings against the Republic of India are at a very early stage. According to Panthera, the legal process to an adjudication is likely to take at least three and possibly five years. In the intervening period there is, however, likely to be influential news flow. Near-term, the key item will probably be when the claim size has been identified. Panthera has suggested this could be in early 2024. According to the company, the claim will include an assessment of the market value of the Bhukia project immediately prior to the expropriation. – Peer group: Panthera has identified a peer group of arbitration plays. Not surprisingly, most stand at considerable discounts to the respective claims given long lead times for the litigation process and uncertainty concerning outcomes. The average discount is around 90%. Assuming a Panthera claim of US$500-1000m, the discount based on the market capitalisation of US$19m would be about 97.4%. We see scope for the discount to narrow significantly over time in the event of positive news flow. "