Member Info for Edhellas

Sounds like we'll have some more dilution soon. Hopefully we get the compensation claim amount announced first and a nice rise in the SP so we get better value from any dilution. Very exciting couple of years ahead of us.

PAT have been trying to get a mine out of India for 18 years. 2-3 years arbitration is pretty quick in comparison.

Also those posters who say the share will start climbing soon are likely correct. If you monitor other BIT claims, there's a clear pattern of the share price increasing in anticipation of a win. Plenty of money to be made in the run up alone imo.

Also a 14% dip in a day is nothing for PAT, the spread has always been high and daily swings are the norm.

@Sebo, part of the BIT process includes trying to reach an agreement. Mark is doing things in the proper order, not being naive.

Agreed Prof!

I and a few others have said previously we'd prefer the arbitration.

It's faste much faster, and it's direct cash.

If we were granted the license I wouldn't trust the GOI or Rajasthan to play nice.

We've got a strong case with two very successful companies behind us. Expect another jump in the SP

@Bizzimartin

The news was the research note from Edison about DFR, where they state Cascades is believed to be between 2-5moz.

If you assume a big player offers 60oz @ 2-5moz, that means our optional 10% buy in is worth between $12m and $30 m. With our 20% cut being worth double that, so $36b-$90m. It's entirely possible we'd be offered more than $60 per oz, but for arguments paying $7.5m for the extra 10% makes sense even at the lowest part of that range.

The research says it's unlikely pat would pay that much, but I disagree. We have 3 years remaining to exercise that right, and our share price will jump significantly due to India. Worst case scenario we need to generate a few shares at whatever share price we have in 3 years. Best case we've already got a settlement from India and can pay cash for that 10%.

Patrick Moloney highlighted the same point I make to potential investors - it doesn't matter what the global markets are doing, PAT is in a position to win big no matter the price of gold, recessions, war, etc.

Mark tends to be late for most of his deadlines, but he always delivers.

No win, no fee $13.6m funding on Bhukia for just 15% of the claim is excellent.

$18m funding on Labola, with 20% minimum stake is basically a free ride.

He said a few weeks in August, so we'll get something soon definitely. There's still news to come from West Africa too

According to Allenby we need 2moz in Cascades (Labola) for it to be economically feasible. We'll find out soon though. We might even get 3.

We don't have any precedent for our argument in court. The most logical way to interpret our expected timeline is to look at other BIT cases under the Australia-India agreement, as well as other mining BIT cases globally. GreenX have been fighting a different kind of case under a different agreement in a different country, so it's not apples to apples either.

As I said, I've posted a more extensive list of Indian BIT cases previously:

Bechtel, Standard Chartered Bank, Offshore Power, Erste Bank, Credit Suisse, Credit Lyonnaise, BNP Paribas, Anzef, Devas, Loop telecom, Deutsche Telekom, Vodaphone, Nissan, Pioneer Gas Power Plant Limited, Maxis and Global Communications, GPIX, Early Guard. There may be more I'm unaware of. I'd suggest people look into the timelines and results of those.

As per my last post, much of the BIT process includes time limitations, which is a positive for PAT as it prevents the GOI from dragging things out.

We have a strong case with two large (and very successful) firms backing us, with an experienced MD, and no costs to bear. And we have a free ride on Cascades, with several other promising WA assets.

I said in 2020/21 that we'd need 5 years to sort India, which was met with some skepticism. But here we are, on schedule. The share price will catch up as more details surface.

In my opinion one should place more importance on the India bit cases as they are more relevant. E.g.

Cairn took 5 years and they were awarded $1232m out of the $5584 they tried claiming (India-uk)

Vodaphone also took India to court under a BIT claim. Took 8 years. They claimed $5.6b and were awarded around $2.6b (India-Netherlands).

Draw whatever conclusions you like from those. I also posted a much longer list of Indian bit cases previously but I'm on my phone currently.

Don't expect a resolution in 5 months. 2-3 years is more reasonable.

If you read the bit, you'll see that many of the stages have time limits at least which is positive.

Cairn had a BIT claim against India for reference.

My position is not negative or positive.

It's a fact that we own 95%, not 100.

It's a fact that LCM want 15% + their initial investment if we have a big payout.

It's a fact that we don't have any indication on Faskens legal fees.

We know that they've been giving us a free ride for a while. It's likely they'll want a % in addition to a flat fee.

I've been invested since 2019 and urged other investors to keep their shares when we went from 36p all the way down to 3.5p.

Apparently I'm a "massive deramper" now because I know there's no way we get a £5.50 dividend.

PAT own 95%.

LCM would take 15% plus the $13.6m.

Then Faskens take their cut.

We get a lot less than 80%.

*95%

I may be in the minority here but I'd prefer the arbitration route.

If we get a deal, there's always the possibility of the govt. finding new ways to tie us up in legal knots. The BIT claim is a flat sum of cash, much simpler even though the reward is reduced.

If we follow the pattern of other LCM partners, we could easily see a 10x increase in share price before the results are in.

No.

We own 100% of IGL, who have a 95% stake in Bhukia

PAT own 95% of Bhukia.

LCM want up to 15% of our share, so that's 19.25% gone so far.

LCM also get their original $13.6m (or however much we end up borrowing) back too. Let's so we're at 20% gone

I'm not sure on Faskens cut, but will be one.

So any compensation is already heavily diluted.

Take into account that the govt of India rarely pay the full compensation claim.

I won't put a number on the sp until we know we are definitely going the arbitration route, and we know the amount we're asking. But it won't be as simple as $1b claim = $1b market cap, there's a lot of dilution to consider.

Still, the sp would multi bag.